The 2010 ncaa tournament has arrived and with it once final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season. To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.
Most recent trends
• One-seeds are 76-0 straight up (42-33-1 against the spread) vs. 16-seeds
• Two-seeds are 72-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs. 15-seeds
• Only twice since 1988 has a 12-seed failed to beat a five-seed (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS last year)
• Favorites of 7 or more points who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last three games are 15-29-1 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win
• Faves between 4 and 12 points playing an opponent off back-to-back SU underdog wins are 38-14-1 ATS (27-6-1 ATS last nine years)
• Faves of 20 points or more are 2-12 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU win
• Dogs of 18 points or higher off a double-digit ATS win are 6-1 ATS
• Dogs of less than 8 points off back-to-back tourney dog wins are 3-16 ATS
Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is paramount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a peek at some of the more relevant results that have occurred in Round 1 games:
Round 1 notes
• One-seeds favored by less than 25 points and off back-to-back SU wins are 12-2 ATS
• Two-seeds are 6-20-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU win (3-12 last eight years)
• Three-seeds off a SU loss as a favorite are 28-1 SU and 21-7-1 ATS (5-0 last three years)
• Four-seeds are 25-12 ATS as favorites of less than 9 points (8-2 last four years)
• Nine-seeds are 2-6 ATS as favorites of 3 or less points
Conference tournament champs in Round 1 of NCAA Tournament
ACC: 1-5 ATS, Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS, Big 10: 2-4 ATS, Big 12: 3-5 ATS, Big East: 2-13 ATS, Big West: 1-4 ATS, Colonial: 12-5 ATS, C-USA: 1-5 ATS, Horizon: 6-2 ATS, MAC: 2-3 ATS, Missouri Valley: 1-4 ATS, Mountain West: 3-7 ATS, Pac-10: 4-1 ATS, Sun Belt: 4-4 ATS, SEC: 2-4 ATS, WAC: 1-4 ATS, West Coast: 2-6 ATS.
Teams with best straight up records in this round
Purdue: 11-0, Maryland: 9-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Louisville: 4-0, Missouri: 4-0, Oklahoma St: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kentucky: 16-1, Duke: 12-1, Pittsburgh: 7-1, Texas: 7-1, Wisconsin: 7-1.
Worst teams straight up this round
BYU: 0-7, Northern Iowa: 0-4, Utah St: 0-4, Clemson: 0-3.
Best teams ATS in this round
Xavier: 5-0-2, Arizona St: 4-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kansas: 3-0, Butler: 5-1, Florida St: 4-1, West Virginia: 4-1.
Worst teams ATS
Gonzaga: 0-5, Clemson: 0-4, Duke: 0-4, Memphis: 0-3, Marquette: 1-6, Tennessee: 1-6, Georgia Tech: 1-5. Ohio St: 1-4.
Best conferences ATS in this round
Big 12: 13-1, Big 10: 12-5-1, Colonial: 12-5, Missouri Valley: 13-6, Horizon: 8-4.
Worst conferences ATS
Ivy: 1-8, West Coast: 1-7, WAC: 1-4, Mountain West: 2-6.
If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you are seriously in need of a cardiologist.
Most recent trends
• One-seeds are 76-0 straight up (42-33-1 against the spread) vs. 16-seeds
• Two-seeds are 72-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs. 15-seeds
• Only twice since 1988 has a 12-seed failed to beat a five-seed (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS last year)
• Favorites of 7 or more points who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last three games are 15-29-1 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win
• Faves between 4 and 12 points playing an opponent off back-to-back SU underdog wins are 38-14-1 ATS (27-6-1 ATS last nine years)
• Faves of 20 points or more are 2-12 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU win
• Dogs of 18 points or higher off a double-digit ATS win are 6-1 ATS
• Dogs of less than 8 points off back-to-back tourney dog wins are 3-16 ATS
Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is paramount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a peek at some of the more relevant results that have occurred in Round 1 games:
Round 1 notes
• One-seeds favored by less than 25 points and off back-to-back SU wins are 12-2 ATS
• Two-seeds are 6-20-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU win (3-12 last eight years)
• Three-seeds off a SU loss as a favorite are 28-1 SU and 21-7-1 ATS (5-0 last three years)
• Four-seeds are 25-12 ATS as favorites of less than 9 points (8-2 last four years)
• Nine-seeds are 2-6 ATS as favorites of 3 or less points
Conference tournament champs in Round 1 of NCAA Tournament
ACC: 1-5 ATS, Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS, Big 10: 2-4 ATS, Big 12: 3-5 ATS, Big East: 2-13 ATS, Big West: 1-4 ATS, Colonial: 12-5 ATS, C-USA: 1-5 ATS, Horizon: 6-2 ATS, MAC: 2-3 ATS, Missouri Valley: 1-4 ATS, Mountain West: 3-7 ATS, Pac-10: 4-1 ATS, Sun Belt: 4-4 ATS, SEC: 2-4 ATS, WAC: 1-4 ATS, West Coast: 2-6 ATS.
Teams with best straight up records in this round
Purdue: 11-0, Maryland: 9-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Louisville: 4-0, Missouri: 4-0, Oklahoma St: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kentucky: 16-1, Duke: 12-1, Pittsburgh: 7-1, Texas: 7-1, Wisconsin: 7-1.
Worst teams straight up this round
BYU: 0-7, Northern Iowa: 0-4, Utah St: 0-4, Clemson: 0-3.
Best teams ATS in this round
Xavier: 5-0-2, Arizona St: 4-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kansas: 3-0, Butler: 5-1, Florida St: 4-1, West Virginia: 4-1.
Worst teams ATS
Gonzaga: 0-5, Clemson: 0-4, Duke: 0-4, Memphis: 0-3, Marquette: 1-6, Tennessee: 1-6, Georgia Tech: 1-5. Ohio St: 1-4.
Best conferences ATS in this round
Big 12: 13-1, Big 10: 12-5-1, Colonial: 12-5, Missouri Valley: 13-6, Horizon: 8-4.
Worst conferences ATS
Ivy: 1-8, West Coast: 1-7, WAC: 1-4, Mountain West: 2-6.
If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you are seriously in need of a cardiologist.