ChuteBoxe's UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez Betting Preview and Selections

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  • ChuteBoxe
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-21-07
    • 6885

    #1
    ChuteBoxe's UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez Betting Preview and Selections
    Wanderlei Silva (-140) vs. Michael Bisping (+120)

    This is my favorite fight on the card. I want to slam it, but I keep telling myself, and advising others, it’s hard to lay a lot of wood on someone who is 1-5 in his past 6 fights, with three of those losses coming by way of knockout. After just saying that, I know you’re wondering why I would even have 1 unit, not to mention 3 on “The Axe Murderer”.

    Here goes… There was an inner conflict amongst the higher-ups at Chute Boxe Academy in Brazil. That’s why a lot of premier fighters left the world renowned Muay Thai academy. Anderson Silva, Wanderlei Silva, The Rua Brothers, Pele, Anthony Johnson, Thiago Silva, etc… Most of these fighters left in late 2007, and it’s been a bumpy road to transition to new camps for a few of these fighters.

    While many people in the media credited Rudimar Fedrigo with the success of his fighters, it was actually his trainers at the time, Rafael Cordeiro and Pele who made Chute Boxe such a feared fighting organization in IVC and Pride. Rudimar is very skilled, don’t get me wrong, but he’s very old school in his teachings. He’s slow to evolve to the new game of MMA. Things have seriously changed since 1978, and you have to go with the flow. He needs to just focus on being the businessman of the company, and try to get great trainers back at the school.

    While all this drama is going down in Curitiba, Brazil...fast forward to January, 2010 in Las Vegas, Nevada at the Affliction training facility. Three people who put Chute Boxe on the map, are all working together to help one man prepare for what could possibly be his last fight in UFC if he loses. The other two men helping this fighter are none other than Rafael Cordeiro, and Anderson Silva. The fighter they’re helping is Wanderlei Silva, and he’s coming for blood this Saturday against Michael “The Count” Bisping in Australia.

    Silva will look to press the action and trade shots with Bisping. The UK fighter doesn’t have a great knockout punch, and that will put him at a serious disadvantage against a striker who’s deadly at 185. Bisping needs to try and take Wanderlei to the ground for some GNP, or use his reach to get in and get out and hope for a lucky KO punch. He’s too much of an emotional fighter to work this strategy for a full fight, and will get KOed before it’s all over.

    My Picks: Wanderlei Silva (-140) for 3 Units and Fight won't go 3 round distance (-180) for 2 Units

    Stay tuned for my other write-ups on the Main Event, and the rest of the fights on the card...
  • ChuteBoxe
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-21-07
    • 6885

    #2
    Cain Velasquez (-120) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+100)


    I am definitely going against the grain on this one, and will probably come across as a “hater”, but seriously… WHO HAVE YOU BEAT LATELY Cain Velasquez? Ben Rothwell? Ha! Cheick Kongo? Mr. 3 second tap! Denis Stojnic? Shit, Jake O’Brien might’ve been the best fighter you fought in your whole career Cain Velasquez! Not to mention, you only fought seven fights! Be afraid this Saturday. Minotauro is coming for you.

    Anytime I can get a fighter with a career record of 32-5-1, an ex-heavyweight champion coming for redemption, and another shot at the title, this time in the United States with the biggest promotion in the world, at +100 I have to hit it. Minotauro Nogueira has beaten the likes of Randy Couture, Tim Sylvia, Heath Herring, Fabrico Werdum, Cro Cop, Dan Henderson, Ricco Rodriguez, Enson Inoue, etc… He is a world renowned MMA Specialist. Cain Velasquez is an extremely promising fighter on a nice run, don’t get me wrong, he’s also a very tough kid with a nice chin, but in absolutely no way, shape, or form, does he justify being the slight favorite in this fight. I have to think it opened at what it did to bait people into Velasquez. The squares hit him early on, and that line will tighten up as the fight gets near, IMO.

    Here’s how I see it…Nogueira is very skilled on the ground, and seems to pull submissions out of nowhere. He’s also a crisper, more disciplined striker than Velasquez. He doesn’t throw off-balance haymakers like Cain, and doesn’t leave himself open. He is the more experienced fighter by far, and has fought all over the world. He won’t be afraid of Velasquez’s takedowns because he’s the superior fighter once the fight gets to the ground, which will allow him to be freer with his hands. Every aspect of Cain’s game will fall into Nogueira’s favor.

    This fight is hard to predict how it ends. My gut says a 2nd or 3rd round submission. If it goes the distance, and it’s pretty close, you know the judges will back the veteran fighter. But, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised with an early KO by Nogueira, believe it or not. Right on the button.

    My Pick: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+100) for 2 Units
    Comment
    • ChuteBoxe
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-21-07
      • 6885

      #3
      Ryan Bader (-155) vs. Keith Jardine (+135)

      Weird fight. One fighter coming off a win (Bader), and one fighter coming off a loss (Jardine). You also have two very different styles butting heads. Bader impressed many experts on TUF 8, but since then has shown little improvement in his game. Jardine on the other hand, seems like a punching bag for the elite of UFC to showcase their skills. Bader is the better wrestler, but doesn’t have the skills to finish from the top. Not to mention Jardine trains with one of the best wrestlers, and sprawlers for that matter, in Rashad Evans. As long as Jardine can sprawl, he shoud pick apart Bader’s lack of a striking game. His wild loopy punches won’t work against a veteran like Jardine. The wrong man is favored in this fight.

      My Pick: Keith Jardine (+135) risking 1 Unit

      Joe Stevenson (-240) vs. George Sotiropoulos (+200)

      Another TUF veteran stepping into the cage at UFC110, this time from season 7, and an Australian native. Unfortunately, his residence is somewhat of a misconception. He has trained in Washington State for this fight, and has to travel just as far as Big Daddy Stevenson. Sotripolous works best from the top position, and has some tricks up his sleeve from the BJJ perspective. However, he’s far from a Jiu Jitsu specialist. I’ve been hearing how Joe Daddy is one dimensional, but the only one dimension I see, is that he’s far superior in every aspect of this fight. Stevenson will have to avoid getting caught in bad spots, but I feel his boxing and submission game will give him the edge in this fight. Thought the odds would be a little higher in this one. There’s value in -240.

      My Opinion: Joe Stevenson (-240) for 1 Unit


      Krzysztof Soszynski (-190) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+165)

      Stephan Bonnar is in a bad spot here. He just lost to an elderly Mark Coleman, and now he finds himself mismatched against Soszynski fighting for his chance to stay in UFC. Soszynski is also coming off a loss though, but against Brandon Vera, after taking the fight on short notice. Soszynski also is also the stronger fighter, and has a solid clinch, which has given Bonnar problems in past fights. I feel that as long as he can avoid a triangle or armbar from the bottom, he throw Bonnar around and control this fight.

      My Opinion: Krysztof Soszynski (-190)
      Comment
      • whatsgood5
        Restricted User
        • 10-13-09
        • 15359

        #4
        Very nice write-ups, Good luck tonight man
        Comment
        • ChuteBoxe
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-21-07
          • 6885

          #5
          Mirko Cro-Cop (-550) vs. Anthony Perosh (+425)

          Have to think Cro-Cop picks apart Perosh, who has taken this fight on two days notice, but after seeing Flipovic’s struggles in his last few fights, I would NEVER lay the high number. Only use this play in parlays.

          My Opinion: Mirko Cro-Cop (-550)

          James Te Huna (-155) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+125)

          While everyone will be hyping up Sotripolous hailing from Australia, this is the true hometown fighter, IMHO, and he gets a big shot to showcase his skills in front of his country. He has heavy hands, and is very quick. Te Huna is definitely the better striker in this fight. Possibly, the only thing I’m worried about is his elementary ground game, if the situation presents itself. Pokrajac has a poor stand-up game, with little head movement. UFC brass hand selected this fight to attract an Australian audience. I predict Te Huna by TKO in the 1st round.

          My Pick: Te Huna (-155) for 1 Unit

          Goran Reljic (-255) vs. CB Dollaway (+195)

          Reljic is coming off a serious back injury that has sidelined him for nearly two years, and this is only his second fight ever at middleweight. While I don’t like the high odds, especially being laid up for such a long time, and the possibility of ring rust being present in Reljic’s game, if he’s truly ready to fight, he wins this fight rather easily.

          My Opinion: Goran Reljic (-255)

          Chris Lytle (-155) vs. Brian Foster (+125)

          However you slice this fight, it’s going to be close. You have another fighter coming back from injury in Chris Lytle, and both fighters swing for the fences and possess knockout power. I’m not wagering on this fight at all, and would advise you not to either, but if I had to choose, I’d pick the dog in Brian Foster. He has better wrestling ability, and with the bleeding issues of Lytle, I have to think some GNP will stop this fight.

          My Opinion: Brian Foster (+125)
          Comment
          • ChuteBoxe
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 11-21-07
            • 6885

            #6
            ChuteBoxe's Final Card:

            Wanderlei Silva (-140) for 3 Units
            Silva/Bisping does NOT go the distance (-180) for 2 Units
            Nogueira (+100) for 2 Units
            Jardine (+135) risking 1 Unit
            Te Huna (-155) for 1 Unit

            Parlay of the day (+197) risking 1 Unit
            Soszynski (-190)
            Cro-Cop (-550)
            Te Huna (-155)
            Comment
            • ChuteBoxe
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 11-21-07
              • 6885

              #7
              Originally posted by whatsgood5
              Very nice write-ups, Good luck tonight man
              Thanks man, best of luck to you too.
              Comment
              • flyingillini
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 41219

                #8
                Good Luck Chute! Something is up with the Cain fight.. the line is moving like crazy since yesterday, well at least where I play. Lets go Wand Fight team! I am banking on this !
                המוסד‎
                המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                Comment
                • ChuteBoxe
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 11-21-07
                  • 6885

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ChuteBoxe
                  ChuteBoxe's Final Card:

                  Wanderlei Silva (-140) for 3 Units (+3.00)
                  Silva/Bisping does NOT go the distance (-180) for 2 Units (-3.60)
                  Nogueira (+100) for 2 Units (-2.00)
                  Jardine (+135) risking 1 Unit (-1.00)
                  Te Huna (-155) for 1 Unit (+1.00)

                  Parlay of the day (+197) risking 1 Unit (+1.97)
                  Soszynski (-190)
                  Cro-Cop (-550)
                  Te Huna (-155)
                  First losing card of the year. Had to happen sometime, and it wasn't that bad. Glad to see Wanderlei win. He will be dominant at 185. Very impressed with Velasquez. Very surprised at the decline in Nogueira as well.

                  UFC 110: 3-3 (-0.63)
                  Since 1.1.09: 38-21 (+32.42)
                  Comment
                  • 36mafia
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-08-09
                    • 2389

                    #10
                    guess it had to happen eventually man. but i can tell by your name youre a big wandy fan. hes way past his prime and at best he can be a gate keeper at 185. hes still a one trick pony and fighters like that at this level in the game cant rack up wins anymore
                    Comment
                    • adistar85
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 09-04-08
                      • 76

                      #11
                      I was college teammates with Cain, Bader, and CB. They've put in the hard work and are good guys too...so I'm glad to see them earn respect in the MMA community. They are certainly on the radar now (unfortunately my days of getting paid 2 to 1 are long gone), and I look forward to seeing them continue to develop. People overlook the fact that they've only been fighting for 3 years. Anyways, I just discovered this part of the forum and look forward to sharing views on the upcoming cards.

                      -Adistar
                      Comment
                      • 36mafia
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-08-09
                        • 2389

                        #12
                        thats awesome to hear man. i couldnt believe the asu trifecta swept tonight. they all looked solid for sure, its gonna make that wrestling program look good to the new recruits
                        what weight did you wrestle back in college?
                        Comment
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