Beating the bookmaker without creating your own line

[WileOut]

I thought about putting this in the Think Tank but nah.

Let's face it, most of us don't have the time and/or ability to come up with our own line that is better than the bookmaker's line. For those of us who fit this category (which is most people gambling), lets get a discussion going on other ways to beat the bookmaker than coming up with your own line.

Many of us are smart enough to come up with a better line if we were shown how to do it, or had the time to learn to do it ourselves. The fact is that most of us don't have the time to put towards building a database, learning all the math, and then going through all the trial and error required to beat the bookmakers line. There are bills to pay. I have a family and kids that take up almost all of my time when I am not working.

So if you want, lets discuss this here, ways to beat the bookmaker without taking the time to build a database and/or come up with your own line (if there exists many ways to do this ).

My first and a very obvious suggestion is to have a lot of books funded and bet lines at slow moving books. A subscription to a line service would benefit you here but there are also free line services like SBR lines.

[SBR_John]

Making your own line is easy assuming you are living and breathing the sport. As far as how to do it try this; Print the schedule and DO NOT look at any advance lines. Go down the list and ask your self where would the line need to be on each game so that you would pass or have no opinion. When you finish compare your lines to the real lines. Throw out all the games that your line and the real line are on or close. Start further capping the games where your line and the real line are off.

[WileOut]

Making your own line is easy assuming you are living and breathing the sport. As far as how to do it try this; Print the schedule and DO NOT look at any advance lines. Go down the list and ask your self where would the line need to be on each game so that you would pass or have no opinion. When you finish compare your lines to the real lines. Throw out all the games that your line and the real line are on or close. Start further capping the games where your line and the real line are off.

Good point, and I think to have success in any league without using a complex mathematical model you have to really keep up with the sport, as you said.... "live and breathe" the sport. In the leagues I keep up with daily I can do this, come up with a fairly accurate line (within a couple points) on a large percentage of the games.

The games where I am off big with what I thought the spread should be, I sometimes wonder if those are the games that I should fade myself on

[Flying Dutchman]

Firstly, think of Dogs...

Next, think of ugly, nasty, I'd never in my life put money on it teams...

Start here, as you'll gain a point or two on the line...

[WileOut]

Firstly, think of Dogs...

Next, think of ugly, nasty, I'd never in my life put money on it teams...

Start here, as you'll gain a point or two on the line...

Anti-public, yes. Another good point.

[Flying Dutchman]

...doesn't work real well in the NFL tho...

[WileOut]

The anti public thing also ties in with what John said. If the line you thought would come up is way off the actual line, like John said we should concentrate on those lines and try to determine why we are off. It could be that the public has moved the line to where we have an advantage. Have to move quick though, if there is an advantage it won't be there long.

1 problem that could arise here is that maybe we were just off and the book knows something we don't. Of course you have to factor the injuries, back to back (and how teams perform in these situations), how many games in the past week, home/road, past history between the teams (especially recent history), referees, etc, etc.

[WileOut]

I myself have to spot bet with the teams I watch on a regular basis. Like the Hawks. I watch almost all their games. I have a much higher success rate with teams that I actually watch on TV regularly. In fact I have all but stopped betting on any other teams but the local ones. And I bet against them just as much as I do for them. I pull for the Hawks to do well but I recognize that when they are likely to not cover, I have no problem betting against them.

I can also get a feel for the total of a game better when the Hawks play.

[Jaug]

I myself have to spot bet with the teams I watch on a regular basis. Like the Hawks. I watch almost all their games. I have a much higher success rate with teams that I actually watch on TV regularly. In fact I have all but stopped betting on any other teams but the local ones. And I bet against them just as much as I do for them. I pull for the Hawks to do well but I recognize that when they are likely to not cover, I have no problem betting against them.

I can also get a feel for the total of a game better when the Hawks play.

That's a good way of doing it I think. One problem though is that you are betting such a huge market (NBA) it would be more profitable if you followed a AAA baseball team or something like that.

[Flying Dutchman]

That's a good way of doing it I think. One problem though is that you are betting such a huge market (NBA) it would be more profitable if you followed a AAA baseball team or something like that.

sure, and the books will let you put $.50 on either team...if they have a line.

Go for CBB, pick a league: watch every game you can, read all the local papers. You can beat them.