no serious bettor will touch this Superbowl

Fishhead · 02-07-10, 11:02 AM

Simply not true.....................

teaserpleaser · 02-07-10, 11:03 AM

watching the first half... 2nd half total play for me

louisvillekid · 02-07-10, 11:12 AM

i thought i read that that Billy W dude bet like 2 mill on Indy.

PittsburghPlayer · 02-07-10, 11:39 AM

I agree with both the title of the thread as well as Fishhead. I think MOST players should stay away from this game. On the other hand, I do think it is possible to have a feel on the game and to make a winning wager. Money on this game or any other just for "action" is totally amatuer. I myself have no play on this game. Good day and GL Men.

durito · 02-07-10, 01:41 PM

i have most of my bankroll in play

Dunder · 02-07-10, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by durito

i have most of my bankroll in play

-500 props?
There are a few good ones.

If there is a safety, I am toast. (-960, -980 and -1000)

roasthawg · 02-07-10, 01:43 PM

I agree this time... just because I'm not playing it.

jjgold · 02-07-10, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by maersksealand

no respectable pro will ever bet on a game like NO vs. Colts. Yes, it's OK to bet some props or a small recreational amount, but risking serious money trying to choose a winner or betting on the total in suicidal.
For those who doesn't know (and are a lot of you here at SBR) , betting is about NOT TAKING chances, and betting on this Super Bowl is the opposite. This thing with "betting is about not taking chances" will fly over the heads of most of you...it doesnt really matter.
Betting is about waiting for the right game...the game that makes you a winner,betting doesn't mean waisting your time trying to figure out who team will win a TOTALLY UPREDICTABLE game like this Superbowl is.
I read with disgust how some of you "gather data", explain, make calculations, suppositions and present statistics about a game which is, again, totally unpredictable...instead focusing on games where you really have an edge.
Like I said, regarding the winner and the points this game truly can end up in 4 ways (excluding eventually a points push)...you have no edge here, you are a the mercy of some lucky shot or mistake...trying to tell others who will win this game just makes you look stupid.

Good points, only way to cape this game is the last few playoff games each played.

Many playing sharp angle Saints do not have D to stop Manning so sharps on Indy

rm18 · 02-07-10, 02:00 PM

Dallas Clark +1500 to win MVP

gigi1016 · 02-07-10, 02:08 PM

I believe you get the same odds from flipping a coin...Heads Saints tails Colts..And thats that...I make all my picks this way as for others who research, research, research it's like betting on who is going to win Candy Land

james4512 · 02-07-10, 02:16 PM

so untrue, serious cappers learn every week and the super bowl is the pinnacle of capping, its the last game of the year and everyone your suppose to of "learned" throughout the season leads to this

Deuce · 02-07-10, 02:17 PM

This guy is clueless. Biggest game of the year for most pros.

Grux · 02-07-10, 02:21 PM

I wouldn't put my entire bankroll on the point spread but there are a lot of +EV props.

whatsgood5 · 02-07-10, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by Grux

I wouldn't put my entire bankroll on the point spread but there are a lot of +EV props.

Very true

Sam Odom · 02-07-10, 02:27 PM

Sounds like a gambler who choked! Like taking a called 3rd strike with 2 outs & bases loaded.

Some people cannot handle pressure.

PittsburghPlayer · 02-07-10, 02:28 PM

Biggest game of the year? Yes, because of all the hype. But no way this game is anywhere near the best (biggest) opportunity of the year, and that is what professionals look for, the right opportunities.

PittsburghPlayer · 02-07-10, 02:31 PM

And Sam, a professional tries to avoid high pressure and looks for soft numbers. There are hundreds of games a year where that can be found. If today happens to be one of those days for you, then wonderful.

odusmykal · 02-07-10, 02:31 PM

Just a small play for me.. Recreational play only because i'm a degen.. No way i could bet big money on the SB this year..

G's pks · 02-07-10, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by Dunder

-500 props?
There are a few good ones.

If there is a safety, I am toast. (-960, -980 and -1000)

this obviously is a very small bet...otherwise you are very dumb... i agree there should not be a safety....but this must be a small bet.

Sam Odom · 02-07-10, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by PittsburghPlayer

And Sam, a professional tries to avoid high pressure and looks for soft numbers.

I'm a gambler

PittsburghPlayer · 02-07-10, 02:40 PM

Sam, thank you for not tearing me a new asshole. I hope you win your plays today.

Dunder · 02-07-10, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

This proves you are not half as smart as you think you are... Even a child could tell you to put a few bucks both ways on this to protect exposure...turns out you are a clown!

I calculate probability of a safety at just over 5 percent. Applying Kelly criterion, I should have 47% of my bankroll on this play.

As it happens, the most I could get down was about 7 percent (which is still 100 times the amount of your average bet.)

If you care to argue that Kelly criterion is useless and that you know better, please feel free. Anyway if it loses, I could still chase right? (In case you missed it, the last sentence was sarcasm).

G's pks · 02-07-10, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by Dunder

I calculate probability of a safety at just over 5 percent. Applying Kelly criterion, I should have 47% of my bankroll on this play.

As it happens, the most I could get down was about 7 percent (which is still 100 times the amount of your average bet.)

If you care to argue that Kelly criterion is useless and that you know better, please feel free. Anyway if it loses, I could still chase right? (In case you missed it, the last sentence was sarcasm).

I think you win...but it was the first one that stood out to me also... What you have to watch out for here is at the end of the game if it is close and the team winning has to punt..punter might just walk out of endzone to prevent a return...but GL...

Dunder · 02-07-10, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

I think you win...but it was the first one that stood out to me also... What you have to watch out for here is at the end of the game if it is close and the team winning has to punt..punter might just walk out of endzone to prevent a return...but GL...

The possibility of a loss is always there, it wouldn´t be the first big hit I have taken and I am sure it wouldn´t be the last either. But the books, IMHO mispriced this when they first put lines up and it was almost my duty to pound it.

GL with your plays.

Karayilan9 · 02-07-10, 03:54 PM

There are a few locks in this one game, put the whole BR down its a sure thing

There are locks with a profit margin as high as 6-7%, with the books giving higher limits for the game this is going to be a great night.

Sit back and enjoy, its a pay day whatever happens.

raiders72002 · 02-07-10, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by maersksealand

no respectable pro will ever bet on a game like NO vs. Colts. Yes, it's OK to bet some props or a small recreational amount, but risking serious money trying to choose a winner or betting on the total in suicidal.
For those who doesn't know (and are a lot of you here at SBR) , betting is about NOT TAKING chances, and betting on this Super Bowl is the opposite. This thing with "betting is about not taking chances" will fly over the heads of most of you...it doesnt really matter.
Betting is about waiting for the right game...the game that makes you a winner,betting doesn't mean waisting your time trying to figure out who team will win a TOTALLY UPREDICTABLE game like this Superbowl is.
I read with disgust how some of you "gather data", explain, make calculations, suppositions and present statistics about a game which is, again, totally unpredictable...instead focusing on games where you really have an edge.
Like I said, regarding the winner and the points this game truly can end up in 4 ways (excluding eventually a points push)...you have no edge here, you are a the mercy of some lucky shot or mistake...trying to tell others who will win this game just makes you look stupid.

you can say the same about every game which is why people take both sides. If you perceive +Ev bets, then make a play. Pro's see a ton of +Ev bets in this game.

treece · 02-07-10, 04:04 PM

Serious bettors always bet the superbowl.

Brick · 02-07-10, 04:05 PM

Im pretty serious and im touching the superbowl

milwaukee mike · 02-07-10, 04:42 PM

i'm awfully serious and if i can get 40-50% reload bonuses and bet both sides then so be it! while roughly 1/2 or more of you will be behind today i have 100% chance of making some pretty good money.

but i agree for someone to put more than usual in play on a game that doesn't have a strong lean to it just because "it's the super bowl" is kind of silly...

THEGREAT30 · 02-07-10, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by maersksealand

no respectable pro will ever bet on a game like NO vs. Colts. Yes, it's OK to bet some props or a small recreational amount, but risking serious money trying to choose a winner or betting on the total in suicidal.
For those who doesn't know (and are a lot of you here at SBR) , betting is about NOT TAKING chances, and betting on this Super Bowl is the opposite. This thing with "betting is about not taking chances" will fly over the heads of most of you...it doesnt really matter.
Betting is about waiting for the right game...the game that makes you a winner,betting doesn't mean waisting your time trying to figure out who team will win a TOTALLY UPREDICTABLE game like this Superbowl is.
I read with disgust how some of you "gather data", explain, make calculations, suppositions and present statistics about a game which is, again, totally unpredictable...instead focusing on games where you really have an edge.
Like I said, regarding the winner and the points this game truly can end up in 4 ways (excluding eventually a points push)...you have no edge here, you are a the mercy of some lucky shot or mistake...trying to tell others who will win this game just makes you look stupid.

Hogwash

DOMINATER · 02-07-10, 04:47 PM

m sea land listen I have forty years experience picking winners lisiten everyone has different techniques some are very strange this is true this is not one of my favorite styles of games to play we have two totally different teams from size to speed to compound this one team can run and also pass while the other team loves to throw. here comes the biggies New Orleans plays outstanding in their house while the colts are great indoors, what makes these teams hard to pick your getting pulled in all directions more later

Spanks · 02-07-10, 04:54 PM

faak this game...