(Soccer-World Cup 2026) Knockout Plays & Notes

Optional · 06-25-26, 11:41 AM

We know the first matchup of the 16

Canada odds seems generous to me?

Also like Promise to have 3+ shots at goal +200 (not on target)

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-25-26, 01:41 PM

1st play: 1* USA to Advance 1.24 (vs Bos-Herz): 1 to win .24
...Can't ask for a much better matchup.
...I know there's a prospect of US blowing up.
...Feel like Pulisic is being groomed to perform in this match.

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-26-26, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1st play: 1* USA to Advance 1.24 (vs Bos-Herz): 1 to win .24
...Can't ask for a much better matchup.
...I know there's a prospect of US blowing up.
...Feel like Pulisic is being groomed to perform in this match.

(90min) 1* USA -0.5 1.56: 1 to win .56
...Game vs TURK was a Dead-Rubber. Not too worried about that result.
...Should be ready to go. HFA should have value.

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-26-26, 12:34 AM

Morocco (vs NED):
1.5* +0.5 1.80: 1.50 to win 1.20
0.5* -0.5 4.00: 0.50 to win 1.50

...Somewhat unlucky to have two Heavy-weights line up in Rd of 32.
...Still think people are sleeping on MAR. Talent pipeline is coming thru. Been doing it for multiple tournaments.

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-26-26, 12:37 AM

1* SoAFR (1h) +0.25 2.00: 1 to win 1.00 (vs Canada)

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-26-26, 08:35 AM

BRAZIL (vs Japan):
1* (90min) -0.5 1.75: 1 to win .75
1* (To Advance) 1.35: 1 to win .35

1) Japan beat BRAZ in tune-up friendly. BRAZ will be aware.
2) That game was in Tokyo. This game is in Houston, where BRAZ will have hidden fan-edge.
3) Pedigree matters in Knockout stage games. Very hard to knock out a giant, and this game is in "the Americas."

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-26-26, 09:00 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1* SoAFR (1h) +0.25 2.00: 1 to win 1.00 (vs Canada)

2* (90min) SoAFR +0.75 1.93: 2 to win 1.86

1) I like the value on SoAFR. Playing the Dog.
2) CAN just played three Home games, now goes to Los Ang as Neutral site.
3) Broos is more seasoned. I rate Broos as wiser than Marsch.
4) Broos got the defensive shape right against SoKor.
5) Top MF Mokoena returns after missing last game (due to Yellow Card accumulation).

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-26-26, 10:10 AM

I keep mentioning the 3rd-place teams. Results come in:
*Played out that PARAGUAY was happy w/ a Draw. 4 pts will get them thru:

*SENEGAL will be very aware of this today. They know that they need to nose ahead of four 3rd-place teams:
...Their target will be to get to 3 pts w/ a GD of -1 or better.
...Senegal need to win by 2+ vs Iraq (and they know it).
...If they win by 2 goals vs Iraq, they'll nose in front of SoKor/SCOT and have a decent chance of progressing.

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-27-26, 08:25 AM

2* FRA -.5 1.28: 2 to win .56 (vs Swe)

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-28-26, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

W +0.50/1

2* (90min) SoAFR +0.75 1.93: 2 to win 1.86 L -1.00/2

1) I like the value on SoAFR. Playing the Dog.
2) CAN just played three Home games, now goes to Los Ang as Neutral site.
3) Broos is more seasoned. I rate Broos as wiser than Marsch.
4) Broos got the defensive shape right against SoKor.
5) Top MF Mokoena returns after missing last game (due to Yellow Card accumulation).

Can't say it wasn't coming. Nice win for CANADA.

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-28-26, 11:27 PM

Two more action plays:

1* SPAIN (90min) -0.5 1.30: 1 to win .30
...Former champ that has not conceded. Haven't played their best yet.

1* EGYPT (90min) -0.5 2.55: 1 to win 1.55
...I view Australia as an outsider. Egypt look to have more scoring threats.

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-29-26, 10:22 PM

SoAFR -0.50/3
BRAZ +1.10/2
MAR +0.70/2
...ytd = +1.30/7

ChuckyTheGoat · 06-30-26, 07:47 PM

2* Brazil -0.5 1.93: 2 to win 1.86 (vs Norway)

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-01-26, 05:24 PM

MEXICO (vs Eng):
2* +0.25 1.90: 2 to win 1.80
1* -0.5 3.51: 1 to win 2.51

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-02-26, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

SoAFR -0.50/3
BRAZ +1.10/2
MAR +0.70/2
...ytd = +1.30/7

FRA +.56/2
USA +.80/2
SPA +.30/1
ytd: +2.96/12

packerd_00 · 07-02-26, 08:17 PM

Good job Chuck. Who did you have in the Croatia and Portugal game. I was hoping Croatia would win that one just because I don't like Ronaldo.

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-02-26, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by packerd_00

Good job Chuck. Who did you have in the Croatia and Portugal game. I was hoping Croatia would win that one just because I don't like Ronaldo.

Thx, Pack. Didn't play it. Thought it was a tough handicap.

*What's your Projected line for SPA/PORT? Iberian Peninsula neighbors.

Optional · 07-02-26, 09:13 PM

Fading the Swiss v Algeria +350 in 50 mins.

packerd_00 · 07-02-26, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Thx, Pack. Didn't play it. Thought it was a tough handicap.

*What's your Projected line for SPA/PORT? Iberian Peninsula neighbors.

Id likely take Spain to win on penalties. Can't find the lines for that play at the moment.

Is this the first time Spain and Portugal have faced off in a knockout match?

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-02-26, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by packerd_00

Id likely take Spain to win on penalties. Can't find the lines for that play at the moment.

Is this the first time Spain and Portugal have faced off in a knockout match?

They've played in some Nation League games. But I'm convinced the players hate Nations League:

2018: CRonaldo scored a hat-trick. Amazing performance. Drew 3-3, when Spain were the better team.

2004: If you go back to Euro 2004, this is a memorable game for me. GRE stunned host PORT, 2-1, in opening game of the tournament. SPA/PORT were playing to progress in 3rd group game. PORT beat SPA and knocked Spain out of the tournament.

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-02-26, 11:30 PM

1* SPA (90min) -0.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...I know it will look like a close game. I point to SPA (to beat their neighbor).
...Former champ that has yet to concede. Growing into the tournament.
...May have been co-Favs w/ FRA at start of tournament. Not anymore, could be hidden value.
...I view SPA as the cohesive unit. PORT still has one big ego guy.
...PORT has been a little lucky L2 games. Offside calls vs COLO/CROA went in their favor.

packerd_00 · 07-03-26, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

They've played in some Nation League games. But I'm convinced the players hate Nations League:

2018: CRonaldo scored a hat-trick. Amazing performance. Drew 3-3, when Spain were the better team.

2004: If you go back to Euro 2004, this is a memorable game for me. GRE stunned host PORT, 2-1, in opening game of the tournament. SPA/PORT were playing to progress in 3rd group game. PORT beat SPA and knocked Spain out of the tournament.

I remember that Euro 2004.

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-03-26, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by packerd_00

I remember that Euro 2004.

GRE with one of the great Underdog stories:
1) By any ratings, they were not in Top 6 of most talented teams.
2) CZE REP was the team that blew it. They were rolling. In fairness, it was b4 VAR...and Koller probably earns a PK if game is played today.
3) Three shutouts by GRE in K/O rounds.
4) Shows what team can do if Coach/Players are on the same page.
5) In a sea of All-World players, Zagorakis won Player of the Tournament. His cross to Charisteas vs FRA was a thing of beauty.

johnnyvegas13 · 07-03-26, 03:57 PM

Chuck I am taking the big number on Cape Verde +1100

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-03-26, 04:06 PM

ARG -1.75 1.56: 1 to win .56

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-03-26, 04:08 PM

USA -0.5 2.78: 1 to win 1.78
...Favorite has flipped.
...Balogun injury is a factor. But also a chance for someone else to step up.
...Looking at you, Pulisic. Come on, man.

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-03-26, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Chuck I am taking the big number on Cape Verde +1100

I just saw that, John. Thx for the post. And GL.

I took an action-play on other side. My one angle: this would be an ALL-TIME upset. Can happen, that's why they play the games.

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-05-26, 01:23 AM

1* Switzerland (90min) +0.25 1.96: 1 to win .96
...My logic here is that COLO has had a favorable draw. The game-sites have been favorable to COLO's fan-base and Temperature.
...More neutral here. I view it as a toss-up kind of game.

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-05-26, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1* Switzerland (90min) +0.25 1.96: 1 to win .96
...My logic here is that COLO has had a favorable draw. The game-sites have been favorable to COLO's fan-base and Temperature.
...More neutral here. I view it as a toss-up kind of game.

Add: 1* SWITZ (90min) -0.5 3.58: 1 to win 2.58
...Think the variables are right to spring the upset. Colombia has had the edge on Fans/Temps in every game on the run-up.

FWIW: My picks are going south. So, Good Luck.

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-06-26, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

FRA +.56/2
USA +.80/2
SPA +.30/1
ytd: +2.96/12

Been cold as ice:
EGY: -1/1
BRAZ: -2/2
Mex: -3/3
SPA: +.95/1
USA: -1/1
Arg: -1/1
ytd: -4.09/21

Props to anyone having a good tournament.

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-07-26, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Been cold as ice:
EGY: -1/1
BRAZ: -2/2
Mex: -3/3
SPA: +.95/1
USA: -1/1
Arg: -1/1
ytd: -4.09/21

Props to anyone having a good tournament.

Switz: -.52/2
ytd: -4.61/23

ChuckyTheGoat · 07-07-26, 10:07 PM

1* SPAIN -0.5 1.64: 1 to win .64

johnnyvegas13 · 07-08-26, 03:34 PM

Chuck u think Norway has any chance ???

they do have the best player in the world

packerd_00 · 07-08-26, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

GRE with one of the great Underdog stories:
1) By any ratings, they were not in Top 6 of most talented teams.
2) CZE REP was the team that blew it. They were rolling. In fairness, it was b4 VAR...and Koller probably earns a PK if game is played today.
3) Three shutouts by GRE in K/O rounds.
4) Shows what team can do if Coach/Players are on the same page.
5) In a sea of All-World players, Zagorakis won Player of the Tournament. His cross to Charisteas vs FRA was a thing of beauty.

Yeah there was a time when the Czechs were one of the best teams in Europe. They had Petr Cech and Pavel Nedved. Both were top class players. They were never quite able to put it all together. Sort of like Belgium.