+1100 bet today: Sinner vs Medvedev Tennis ATP Rome

[Poisec]

+1100 on Medvedev ML on a bookie that pays withdrawals, after 1 completed set. Watched Sinner yesterday who looked hampered, he was grabbing his left leg in the second set.

Medvedev isn't great on clay, but he won Rome in 2023 in similar conditions, very muddy and wet clay that makes the play slower and the ball bounce lower. Still a long shot but worth a try.
Weather is still crap but hopefully they can play today so that Sinner has less time to recover.

[Optional]

Sinner breaks early to go up 3-0 in the first.

Are you watching? How is he moving?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow. This one might have legs. 1-1 into 3rd set.

[Poisec]

Sinner breaks early to go up 3-0 in the first.

Are you watching? How is he moving?

I wish I was watching but wasn't... could have secured some profits inplay, probably a profit around +400. Too bad.

Not over yet, but I doubt Sinner loses his break advantage now.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sinner wins, 6-4 in 3rd. Almost, good shot.

I love spots like this. Your analysis was well thought out. I think you had a +EV play.

[Poisec]

Sinner wins, 6-4 in 3rd. Almost, good shot.

I love spots like this. Your analysis was well thought out. I think you had a +EV play.

Thanks, was too greedy, +1,5 sets was around +300 I think.

Well, next time

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks, was too greedy, +1,5 sets was around +300 I think.

Well, next time

If you think Medvedev was 12% Win Probability, you had a great play.

I hear you on the Moneyline vs the Spread. My two cents (from back when I bet bigger):
*The Moneylines USED to be much juicier. I hit some good ones.
...Management decided to diffuse the risk at some point. Massive straddles. So, the big Moneylines are true longshots.

*Modern athlete is so well-prepared. Sinner may have been inhibited. But he also a trainer working on him for three hours.

*In practice, I hear you on playing the Handicap line. I rarely play the massive ML dog anymore.