Just take the favorite every time...

[Masu485]

in soccer.

It's fukking unbelievable. The favorite wins ever fukking time in the major euro leagues. Out of all the fukking games on in a day, there may be one upset (where the favorite ties instead of wins), and maybe twice per year where a big dog upsets a fav.

fukking bullshit. no wonder it's the same 3 or 4 teams who win each league EVERy year for the past 50 years.

i've never been a soccer basher, (respected the game and even play it myself) but i'm serously turning into one now.

[frank21]

What kind of juices are we talking? The most bitter kind, I would imagine!

[Masu485]

in American sports you have to think about your pick for a while, because a dog can upset a fav on any night anytime. with soccer, just always take the teams at the top of the table and you'll win. especially true with 2nd tier euro leagues like belgium, netherlands etc... top teams are undefeated, and drew not too many games.

[lakerboy]

[GiveMeaBJ]

Disagree, Chelsea played to a draw yesterday as an almost -400 favorite. The best value in soccer is on the home favorites that are like +130.

[rfr3sh]

how about leeds beating man u in the FA cup a few weeks ago?
is that an upset?

[SamsNCharge99]

Fulham right now is fav and they are tied

[Masu485]

how about leeds beating man u in the FA cup a few weeks ago?
is that an upset?

i meant league play, cup matches are different, sometimes different squads, sometimes no motivation etc

[Dunder]

in soccer.

It's fukking unbelievable. The favorite wins ever fukking time in the major euro leagues. Out of all the fukking games on in a day, there may be one upset (where the favorite ties instead of wins), and maybe twice per year where a big dog upsets a fav.

fukking bullshit. no wonder it's the same 3 or 4 teams who win each league EVERy year for the past 50 years.

i've never been a soccer basher, (respected the game and even play it myself) but i'm serously turning into one now.

Backing all favourites in the EPL, La Liga and Serie A (1X2 at Pinnacle 15 min. before kick-off) would give you the following results.

2009 - minus 2.2%
2008 - minus 2.1%
2007 - minus 2.4%

[Masu485]

Fulham right now is fav and they are tied

they'll probably sneak in a 90th minute goal. but i meant mainly the top 3 or 4 few teams in a league table, not every favorite.

[nenad]

no shit you will see one week all dogs will win it happeds for real

[Masu485]

Backing all favourites in the EPL, La Liga and Serie A (1X2 at Pinnacle 15 min. before kick-off) would give you the following results.

2009 - minus 2.2%
2008 - minus 2.1%
2007 - minus 2.4%

that's good information, where did you get it? could you show me a link if it's on the web, would like to do a bit of research myself.

also, i meant mainly the top 3 or 4 teams on those big leagues, like Inter, Chelsea, barcelona etc... and the favs in the smaller premier leagues like netherlands.

[SamsNCharge99]

they'll probably sneak in a 90th minute goal. but i meant mainly the top 3 or 4 few teams in a league table, not every favorite.

there it is..1-0

[GiveMeaBJ]

Dunder do you have stats on all favorites that are +100 or higher?

[Dunder]

that's good information, where did you get it? could you show me a link if it's on the web, would like to do a bit of research myself.

also, i meant mainly the top 3 or 4 teams on those big leagues, like Inter, Chelsea, barcelona etc... and the favs in the smaller premier leagues like netherlands.

It is from my own database.
It is difficult to extract what you ask for because the data is not "clean". By way of example, in the case of Inter Milan, I have entries under different names (Inter Milan, Internazionale etc. etc.)

[Dunder]

Dunder do you have stats on all favorites that are +100 or higher?

I could extract a report for you later, BJ. The data is on another machine.

[Shark79]

Masu, u cant be serious.

[Jaug]

Backing all favourites in the EPL, La Liga and Serie A (1X2 at Pinnacle 15 min. before kick-off) would give you the following results.

2009 - minus 2.2%
2008 - minus 2.1%
2007 - minus 2.4%

Is this more or less than pinnys juice? Iow is this a worse than average proposition?

[Dunder]

Is this more or less than pinnys juice? Iow is this a worse than average proposition?

It is higher than Pinny juice which averages 1.9% on 12X bets.

Pinny is very much the exception here. With every Euro book betting the favourite is a better than average proposition, albeit at higher juice.

[GiveMeaBJ]

I could extract a report for you later, BJ. The data is on another machine.

Thanks a lot.

[Dunder]

Dunder do you have stats on all favorites that are +100 or higher?

The best available figures are from all the books (excluding Betfair) who´s XML feeds I compile.
This covers from the beginning of the 2007-08 season up to yesterday.

[GiveMeaBJ]

So does this mean it IS slightly profitable to take the dog everytime?