Playoffs????

[ThaTopMoron]

I'm still retired from sports betting but here's my plays for the NFL playoffs

I will try not to post live lines since people don't care for it but If I was you I wouldn't pass up on taking the Rams -105 down 20-24

Rams -105 LIVE (i checked DK sports app) for 1x

[ThaTopMoron]

What pure cinema that 4th quarter was! Puka turning defender was a huge play to allow the drive to continue on a 4th and 1 conversion.

The Panthers getting the ball back, going for the punt block and getting it! The nice touch on the TD throw on 3rd down by Young!

The Rams answered like the season wasn't on the line. Panthers play it too soft, which in the NFL is asking to lose. Hoping that the opponent makes 1 more mistake. Veteran Rams players, poise and confident went right down the field. Those Ram tight ends can really come through in the clutch for big plays at times! Or the Rams TD drive down 20-24, in the redzone they just owned the Panthers in the redzone with the RB angle route executed to perfection!

PLAYOFFS???? Record: 1-0 +1.0

Next play. I agree with some of the posters here on the Packers Bears game. It's time for the Bears to make a statement. The conditions will hold down the Packers deep passing attack that is inconsistent at times. Love may float up 1 or 2 that the Bears will get to and pick off. No Micah Parsons of course. Lost their top TE when he was having a nice season. I just can't take the road team here. I only rate this play as a 3/5 in confidence though, so be careful with putting too much on this game guys.

Play 2: Green Bay @ Chicago: Bears +110, 1x

[ThaTopMoron]

On the right side of the typical "flip the script" game where 4th quarter drama shows up no matter what the score is at half. I didn't think the Bears could do it after failing on that 4th & 1 pass down 6-21. The Packers came out sloppy up 18 and the Bears came out with a new attitude. No Micah Parsons really hurt as the Packers defense got tired. Wonderful day of watching NFL Playoff drama. Remember, these are my picks but I do not have anything on them as I retired middle of 2025.

PLAYOFFS???? Record: 2-0 +2.1

I will post some plays in the morning if I get around to it. I may have some bias tomorrow as I want to see the AFC South teams lose so do not read much into it if I pick the Bills or the Steelers on Monday to win. I also want the Patriots out but the Chargers... do not seem like much of a threat with everything factored into that game (road travel, weather, injuries, history of playoff collapses)

[ThaTopMoron]

Play 3: Bills ML +102 2X

yeah, I don't believe that the Bills lose here when the nemesis is not looming further down the road

this is similar to the Steelers getting to Super Bowls when they didn't have to play the Patriots in 2005, 2008, 2010

Josh will be hard to stop with how good he is with his tight ends in the red zone and ability to score himself on scrambles and QB sweeps, etc

[unde0087]

Stop pretending you don't gamble. If you weren't gambling then you wouldn't be starting a gambling thread on a gambling site and putting out units on plays with massive write-ups. It is okay, you don't have to pretend to us.

[Mr KLC]

I don't know. Air betting was the main hobby on this site for over a decade.

[ThaTopMoron]

Another game winning drive late in the 4th quarter! Good job Josh but I'm worried about them next game without Poyer and a little help from Gabe. That throw downfield by Josh vs that blitz that was coming in on him hot??? That's why you take the Bills > AFC opponents in these playoffs

Bills +102 2x winner
PLAYOFFS???? Record: 3-0 +4.14

Who bet on the Jags? I knew they wouldn't quite have enough... Colts gave them easy wins and they got lucky in a couple games. Really a 10-7 team...

How about these playoffs so far people? How is it easier to pick winners when you aren't actually putting money on them and ignored lines/spreads/totals for the entire NFL season to heal yourself and get back to enjoying football for what it is!!! SPORT

[ThaTopMoron]

I don't like the Eagles/Niners game. I might like a line at half and will post it here if that happens. If I was you guys and rolling I would take a stab with Jalen Hurts anytime TD +110... we know he likes to run it in or get pushed in from 1 yard out instead of having to thread the needle on a big down in the Redzone because he is mediocre.

Last year when they were punishing KC with all phases of the game playing great and making it easy on him I told my Dad he wouldn't win another SB. That game was like Wilson having it easy vs the Broncos.

Play 4: Jalen Hurts anytime TD +110 (DK app) 1x

also, let's add on.. let's have fun with half a unit with Barkley -125 td parlayed with Kittle anytime TD +200. That's +425

Play 5: Barkley TD + Kittle TD: +425 .25x ($25 would pay out $131.25 = $106.25 profit = possible win of +1.0625 units)

The reason I am posting now for fun is to satisfy that little urge to still look at spreads, etc and pick stuff for fun just to see how well I do. It's a hobby without risking money. It will help keep me SOBER from gambling. I wanted to also see how much less active the forums have become since I quit and quit posting here last yr before summer. Also, it's a distraction to help me with my grieving that I am still going through from last last year. If you read one of my posts here explaining why I was quitting you know who I am grieving. Stay safe fellas! I laughed when I saw the "Lamar won't do anything" thread bumped... I missed out on commenting on it this year sadly.

[unde0087]

I don't know. Air betting was the main hobby on this site for over a decade.

I stand corrected sir

[Swiftie17]

Rooting for #26 and #1 touchdowns

Fly Eagles Fly

[Clean up'er]

Any picks on Pats/Chargers game?...much appreciated.

[ThaTopMoron]

Ok, back to team MLs or spreads

time for a favorite to win and cover

Play 6: Patriots -3.5 -115 1x

[ThaTopMoron]

Patriots win 16-3... so the team who scored the least amount of points in 5 games so far is the only team to cover a spread. Makes sense in the NFL, doesn't it? The "mighty" Patriots. Take the points gifted to you Jim H. (Chargers) when it's a scoreless game (def battle) and the opposing QB is playing his first playoff game and you are the road team.

Team ML/spreads PLAYOFFS???? Record: 4-0 +5.14

Player Props/game props/anytime TD/prop parlays/futures: 0-2 -1.25

Overall: 4-2, +3.89

I should've just posted the underdog spread and taken Niners +5.5 and gone 5-0 in 2 days, but I didn't like the game because of the Niners problems even with me not caring for Hurts and calling him mediocre. My bad!!!

See you all tomorrow. Just one game so I'll post something at least an hour beforehand, maybe a couple hours if someone asks like Clean up'er did today but I didn't know because I will only pop in after games or beforehand to post.

[DJK]

What's your take on tonight's game between Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers?

Considering that you are on a heater, I may have to heed your opinion.

Hopefully, you post your pick sooner than later as I'm in a situation where I may have to hedge from a rather big parlay payout. Thanks.

[ThaTopMoron]

I see Texans are now -3 -105 (via DK)

Yes please, I don't care about streaks... I've seen that Texans defense enough times to back it against a team that got lucky.

Rodgers likes to go empty too often and predetermine who he goes to based on what the defense looks like and how it reacts to a motion than to stay in the pocket and read the defense post-snap and zing it to someone who actually gets wide open.

DK is back so this won't be a cakewalk for Houston. Could end up with a push here on -3.

Texans -3 -105 1x

[ThaTopMoron]

Adding a little something for fun:

Texans Def TD +500 parlayed with Pat Freiermuth TD +390 = +2700 @ .2X

[ThaTopMoron]

I was spot on with Rodgers going with dumb empty formations every single time it was 3rd and 7+ he'd been doing that anytime I saw him play this season... and they didn't work. Why would you keep going empty vs that front 4? CJ Stroud did his best to keep the Steelers in the game, turning bad luck/miscues into turnovers. Throwing a pick instead of guaranteeing a short FGA up 7-6 to start the 3rd... etc. It didn't matter after the Texans stripped old man Rodgers and housed it. Too bad Pat didn't score a late game TD... my prop of Texans +500 def TD hit by itself... but that's why I am who I am.

PLAYOFFS???? Team ML/Spread Plays: 5-0 +6.14
Props/Player TDs/Etc: 0-3 -1.45
Overall: +4.69

Steelers are always a boring 1 and done team. I wish Loop would've made that field goal. Too bad the Texans and Patriots can't both lose next weekend.

[ThaTopMoron]

Let's see if Buffalo can do it again. I know it will be tough, but if the Broncos are rusty and start out slow on offense... that's trouble. They beat a lot of bad teams by just 1,2,3 points having to rally in the 2nd half or 4th. They did lose to Buffalo last season. Maybe this is a team that Buffalo knows how to beat!

Bills ML +100 2X

D.Knox 1st TD scorer +2200 .1X

[stevenash]

[SIZE=14px]Bills ML +100 2X

My best bet +1.5
I'm more comfortable with Buff +1.5 -110.

Best of luck.

[ThaTopMoron]

There goes the Bills season. Safety standing flat footed as a guy crosses past him towards the endzone when all they want to do is limit to a FGA with the Broncos out of timeouts... and then try and do something with Allen b4 half with no timeouts and he is forced to scramble inside the numbers and he does... and doesn't realize there is nothing he can do besides slide down and see if they can spike it instead he slows down and continues to hold the ball loosely... when you slow down sir, eventually guys are going to catch up to you and go for the ball first and foremost in that situation.

Now, they get the ball down 10 instead of just 1 score

Josh Allen might really be cursed with feeling like he has to DO IT ALL after he saw his defense break like that to give up a TD instead of a FG and then his coach allowed him the chance to make it worse. Like other QB's who always saw their defense fail, or guys screw momentum up with fumbles/drops or missed clutch kicks or poor special teams play late in games... that lead to so many playoff failures from the likes of Brees, Rodgers and P.Manning

[ThaTopMoron]

Rams ML in OT -125 2X

[ThaTopMoron]

Old Record: Spread/ML bets: 5-0 +6.14
Prop bets/td bets/etc: 0-3 -1.45
+4.69

Bills ML +100 2X lost, prop bet of .1X lost

Rams LIVE ML going into OT @ -125 2X won

Spread/ML bets: 6-1 +6.14
Prop bets/TD bets/etc: 0-4 -1.55

Overall: +4.59


I feel like I got unlucky with the Bills +100 2X loss and got lucky with the -125 2X LIVE winner so the random results of NFL play evened out

Rams have treated me nicely when I have been patient during there games and grabbed them LIVE

Next week I will probably back them again with a lower line vs Seattle because they are now 0-2 ats so taking Rams before the start of the game is highly likely. Let's see what random injuries or news comes out in the next 2-3 days first though.

[ThaTopMoron]

patriots (alternate spread -5.5) +105 2x

rams +120 2x

[ThaTopMoron]

Oh well, -4x the rust has kicked in with lazy picks with no real money on the line

Overall: +.59

SB pick will decide if thread ends positive or negative. Worst Super Bowl since Patsies/Rams (should've been Saints)

[DJK]

When are you going to make up your mind and post your pick(s)?

Hopefully, it's the right one(s) and ends this thread on more positive.

[ThaTopMoron]

When are you going to make up your mind and post your pick(s)?

Hopefully, it's the right one(s) and ends this thread on more positive.

I favor Seattle to win. If they win, Walker will score a TD. So, thus... this thread ends with a parlay

Seattle ML -238/K.Walker III TD -185 = -110 odds 1X

[DJK]

I favor Seattle to win. If they win, Walker will score a TD. So, thus... this thread ends with a parlay

Seattle ML -238/K.Walker III TD -185 = -110 odds 1X

All that running yards and no TD for Walker?

Match Seattle ML with Walker on over running yards then it's money with a higher payout odd.

Considering how so many people bet the under on Walker run yardage prop bet to push it down 10 yards, betting the over was more logical. Oh well.

[ThaTopMoron]

All that running yards and no TD for Walker?

Match Seattle ML with Walker on over running yards then it's money with a higher payout odd.

Considering how so many people bet the under on Walker run yardage prop bet to push it down 10 yards, betting the over was more logical. Oh well.

I don't bet with real money and Walker got his TD it just got called back on a flag when they didn't throw flags all night. Vegas said favorite can win but the under must hold.

I just wanted patriots to lose so I liked the game. Carolina fan too so beating Duke at the buzzer was as good as the big game. I knew Seattle would win when I saw Seaweeds pick, but I will never trust a spread in a SB. They let it hit but didn't let any big name players score a TD... give and take.

Rams Bills would've been 10x more fun to watch than Darnold limiting mistakes and Maye getting swallowed up or trying to run for his life... see... NOT SO FUN WHEN YOUR PROTECTION DOESN'T HOLD UP EHHH??? That's to people who say "Brady beat Mahomes in a SB" like they were playing 1 on 1... lmao. Mahomes was running for his life and Andy's game plan sucked.