(NFL 2025) QB - Injury Adjustments

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to start this thread for:
1) Weekly QB injury news
2) Opinions on how many pts the Displacement should be

Might be of value. All opinions welcome.

[raiders72001]

McCarthy doubful, Wentz will start. Daniels questionable, Mariota may play. We all know the Cincy situation.

[raiders72001]

Taylor should start for Fields. It seems that McCarthy could play but they are over blowing the injury as a reason to sit McCarthy.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wk03:
*WASH: Daniels?? I thought he was injury risk. Worth 3 pts?
*Las Vegas: No injury. But I have to imagine that Geno is close to getting benched.
*Cin/MINN: Both QBs out. Burrow: stud (4 pts?). McCarthy: maybe only one pt.
*SF: Purdy out. If mkt adjusts four pts, I say that's too much.

[raiders72001]

Wk03:
*WASH: Daniels?? I thought he was injury risk. Worth 3 pts?
*Las Vegas: No injury. But I have to imagine that Geno is close to getting benched.
*Cin/MINN: Both QBs out. Burrow: stud (4 pts?). McCarthy: maybe only one pt.
*SF: Purdy out. If mkt adjusts four pts, I say that's too much.

My guesses
Wentz should be an upgrade to McCarthy at this point in his career even thought the line says different. -2 points
Burrow worth 6-7 points.
Daniels worth 4-5 to an average backup but Mariota is better than average.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My guesses
Wentz should be an upgrade to McCarthy at this point in his career even thought the line says different. -2 points
Burrow worth 6-7 points.
Daniels worth 4-5 to an average backup but Mariota is better than average.

Good stuff, Raid. I really think proper gauge of Replacement QB value = key to beating the #.

*SF: I have thought for a while that Purdy is overrated. Can't imagine that Purdy>>>Mac is worth more than two points.

...In my Coll notes, I pointed out Army switching from Coleman to Hellums. I'm convinced that Army is better w/ Hellums.

[Enkhbat]

Justin Fields is out, Tyrod Taylor will start. Probably doesn't make much difference in the spread. Bucs -7 regardless of who starts for the Jets. But I disagree with this, he is 36 and hasn't started an NFL game for a while. Bucs defense is stingy. I say Bucs win by double digits.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Justin Fields is out, Tyrod Taylor will start. Probably doesn't make much difference in the spread. Bucs -7 regardless of who starts for the Jets. But I disagree with this, he is 36 and hasn't started an NFL game for a while. Bucs defense is stingy. I say Bucs win by double digits.

I agree, Enk. Fields is ideal age. Played well enuf to win vs PITT, a little unlucky.

Taylor has some pedigree. But that's in the rear-view mirror. Nice note.

[raiders72001]

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/oddsmakers-rank-all-32-nfl-starting-qbs-by-point-spread-value-how-valuable-is-jayden-daniels-to-the-spread-150837317.html

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good stuff, Raid. Appreciate your insights:

*I think you're spot-on re: Cin/Min. Oddsmaker can't just write that off as a wash.
...I'm on MINN -3. Think they'll look like the better team.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/oddsmakers-rank-all-32-nfl-starting-qbs-by-point-spread-value-how-valuable-is-jayden-daniels-to-the-spread-150837317.html

I think QB displacement is a key to finding ATS winners:
*Not criticizing. But that chart looks a little dated. Pickett has moved on, and Rattler beat out Shough.

A few QB changes are imminent (in my mind):
1) CLE: Flacco totally showing his age. Browns need a little foot-speed at QB.
2) NO: Shough is actually older than Rattler. We'll see how Moore plays it.
3) CAROL: I expect Young to look bad. It's just that they have so much tied up in him.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Test case this week on BALT: Jackson>>>Rush

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Test case this week on BALT: Jackson>>>Rush

Anyone have a scouting report on Rush?

...It's a massive line adjustment for no Jackson. Not saying it's wrong.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Anyone have a scouting report on Rush?

...It's a massive line adjustment for no Jackson. Not saying it's wrong.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RushCo00.htm

...9-5 career as a starter (w/ Dallas). Not sure everyone would know that.
...His passing stats actually look pretty good. 20/10 career TD/INT (2.00:1).
...Limited mobility. Hardly any scramble yards. And that doesn't improve after age 30.