Week 0ne NFL Teasers

[raiders72001]

Denver is a must in all teasers. Rookie QBs with their first start on the road have been brutal.

Broncos/Bears teaser.

[actiondan]

i did a 3 teamer and included baltimore

[actiondan]

offshore still has -110/-120. legal books not so much

[raiders72001]

i did a 3 teamer and included baltimore

I thought about including Philly tonight.

[OldBill]

Learned long ago tease the team you think will win game

[raiders72001]

2015	Marcus Mariota	TEN	Sept. 13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	42-14 (W)
2017	Deshaun Watson	HOU	Sept. 14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	9-13 (L)
2018	Sam Darnold	NYJ	Sept. 10	@ Detroit Lions	48-17 (W)
2018	Josh Allen	BUF	Sept. 16	@ Los Angeles Chargers	20-31 (L)
2018	Baker Mayfield	CLE	Sept. 20	@ Oakland Raiders	42-45 OT (L)
2019	Daniel Jones	NYG	Sept. 22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	32-31 (W)
2019	Gardner Minshew	JAX	Sept. 15	@ Houston Texans	12-13 (L)
2019	Dwayne Haskins	WAS	Dec. 1	@ Carolina Panthers	29-21 (W)
2021	Trevor Lawrence	JAC	Sept. 12	@ Houston Texans	21-37 (L)
2021	Zach Wilson	NYJ	Sept. 12	@ Carolina Panthers	14-19 (L)
2021	Justin Fields	CHI	Sept. 26	@ Cleveland Browns	6-26 (L)
2021	Trey Lance	SF	Oct. 10	@ Arizona Cardinals	10-17 (L)
2022	Desmond Ridder	ATL	Dec. 18	@ New Orleans Saints	18-21 (L)
2023	C.J. Stroud	HOU	Sept. 10	@ Baltimore Ravens	9-25 (L)
2023	Bryce Young	CAR	Sept. 10	@ Atlanta Falcons	10-24 (L)
2023	Will Levis	TEN	Oct. 29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	16-20 (L)
2023	Tommy DeVito	NYG	Nov. 12	@ Dallas Cowboys	17-49 (L)
2024	Jayden Daniels	WAS	Sept. 8	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20-37 (L)
2024	Bo Nix	DEN	Sept. 8	@ Seattle Seahawks	20-26 (L)
2024	Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	Oct. 27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	31-26 (W)

[raiders72001]

There are a lot of Wong teasers available this week. Also teased Denver with the Raiders.

[JoshBuffalo]

There are a lot of Wong teasers available this week. Also teased Denver with the Raiders.

Going to be a week where 9/10 'dog wong sides' win outright or cover the big spread

[ChuckyTheGoat]

There are a lot of Wong teasers available this week. Also teased Denver with the Raiders.

GL, raid. Keep this thread going.

Two things I'm interested in:
1) Are you still getting 2-team +6 teasers at -110 odds?
2) Success rate over time.

Just my 2-cents: I fkin hate Teasers. They always seem to under-achieve:
...Also, distributions change over time.
...One factor would be the impact of Kickers. Modern kickers seem to hit EVERYTHING, so maybe that makes for closer games.

Per my 2nd note, I think it's well worth studying the Kickers:
...The top kickers have insane accuracy and good range.
...I could list about 8 teams where I would look at the Dog exclusively b/c of the Kicker. (Dal/Chargers are two of em).

Have a great Sunday!

[actiondan]

good teaser week. need bears tomorrow to break even for the week

[raiders72001]

offshore still has -110/-120. legal books not so much

You have to play 3 teamers at +160 in the US.

[raiders72001]

GL, raid. Keep this thread going.

Two things I'm interested in:
1) Are you still getting 2-team +6 teasers at -110 odds?
2) Success rate over time.

Just my 2-cents: I fkin hate Teasers. They always seem to under-achieve:
...Also, distributions change over time.
...One factor would be the impact of Kickers. Modern kickers seem to hit EVERYTHING, so maybe that makes for closer games.

Per my 2nd note, I think it's well worth studying the Kickers:
...The top kickers have insane accuracy and good range.
...I could list about 8 teams where I would look at the Dog exclusively b/c of the Kicker. (Dal/Chargers are two of em).

Have a great Sunday!

Hey Chucky, hope Sunday was good to you. US taking away those 2 teamers that were once -120 now -135. Best playing 3 teamers in US.

[raiders72001]

Teaser leg break even percentage.

2 team -110 break even 72.4%
2 team -120 be 73.8%
2 team -135 be 75.8%
3 team +160 be 73.2%
4 team +260 be 73.1%
5 team +400 be 72.4%

[raiders72001]

I rarely tease down at 6.5 but here are the implied probabilities of these 3 teams using current Pinny lines.

Buffalo 73.17
Arizona 72.66
SF 72.21

All 3 of these should go up and the closing implied probabilities should go over break if teased down now to -.5.

I didn't play any yet and may tease some games up.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hey Chucky, hope Sunday was good to you. US taking away those 2 teamers that were once -120 now -135. Best playing 3 teamers in US.

Thx, Raid. Yeah, I figured that they eventually change the odds. Funny thing, most bettors play them anyway.

Props on figuring out a new scheme. The odds-maker is surprisingly not all that sharp on the combinations and the Odds.

[raiders72001]

Pass on SF. The line moved because they may be without Purdy, Kittle and Jennings.

[raiders72001]

Arizona/Indy. If a 3rd leg is needed, then I'd take TB.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Arizona/Indy. If a 3rd leg is needed, then I'd take TB.

Do they let you play OPEN-teasers? IE, 3rd leg open til you play it later.

[raiders72001]

Do they let you play OPEN-teasers? IE, 3rd leg open til you play it later.

I don't think they do in US.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I don't think they do in US.

That sux.

[raiders72001]

GB -2.5/Sea -1.5 for week 3.

[Httr]

Any offshores that offer -110 on 2 team 6 pt teasers?

[raiders72001]

Buf -1.5/Atl -1.5

Bryce Young OUT and MIA is a disaster. If the lines go up, I may come back the other way straight.