Well last night we got burned when the Arizona Wildacts came out and decided they didn't care about any of Arizona State's home court stats thus far on the year and beat the Sundevils down like red headed step children, with all due respect to you red headed step children out there. It happens, the numbers and the value were there and that's what counts.
We don't have to look far for today's pick. No hidden NCAA Basketball picks analyzing home and away stats, no looking to see who is healthy or not on the NHL board.
We are hitting the highly pulicized Jets Colts matchup.
The New York Jets and the Indianapolis Colts play for the AFC Championship in what many are calling "The Kharma Match" since the Jets likely wouldn't even be in the playoffs had the Colts not rested their starters in the 2nd half of their matchup week 16 of the regular season. Something you don't see often in a championship game is 2 first year
Let's pretend you knew nothing about the NFL season thus far. Maybe you were an astronaut, on Mars for the last year or something similar. Let's say you came back, and gave me a call looking for some action today. Without disclosing the team names, I simply told you there was a big NFL playoff game today with the following stats: Team A hosts the NFL's #1 overall defense. They have the #1 pass defense by far - allowing a minuscule 153.7 yards in the air per game, with the leagues next lowest average per game being 184.3 yards per game (Buffalo). This said team also features the 8th best rushing defense in the NFL at only 98.6 ypg. On offense team A had the top rushing offense in the NFL this year, and the 2nd worst passing offense.
Then I told you their opponent, team B featured the NFL's 2nd best passing offense. This said opponent had by far the leagues worst rushing stats per game at a tiny 80.9 ypg. They had the league's 9th worst rushing defense, the league's 14th best passing defense and a defense ranked 8th.
Would you consider taking team A without any further information? I think I would.
I then told you both teams had 1st year coaches with their respective teams.
Then I told you Team A was getting a massive 8.5 points, possibly 9 by game time.
Now would you take them? I definitely would.
The bottom line fellas is this is the reality of the situation in the Colts/Jets game today. Those stats look absurd to me. I still feel like the Colts pull it out, but with the amount of squeakers they have played this year, do you really think they are going to beat a team with by far the best passing and total defense in the league this year by more than 9 points? I sure as heck don't.
Sure if you further analyze the game there are things that are going to sway your feelings towards the Colts. Manning is arguably the best quarterback of all time, and has put up one of his best seasons in leading the Colts to what could possibly have been an undefeated season had their coach not benched their starters in the last meeting between these 2 teams. Take a look at the Cols' 2nd half of the season though. Sure, ignore the losses to the Jets and a drubbing at the hands of a bad Buffalo team because their starters weren't in. There were however many squeakers against teams in which they still had a lot to play for and their starters were still in. 18-14 at home versus a weak 49er team. 19-17 at home vs a barely above average Houston team. 35-34 at home versus a Patriot team that, with all due respect to what they have done over the last decade, was exposed by Baltimore as a vastly overrated team week 1 of this year's playoffs. A 35-31 squeaker in Jacksonville.
And with both coaches being in their first year, who do you like better Rex Ryan, or Jim Caldwell? Sure Manning is arguably more the coach of the Colts than Caldwell but I can sure as heck tell you that he wanted to stay in the game week 16 and when the "stuff" hit the fan look who was in charge. I like Ryan over Coldwell any day of the week - both in an NFL game and finishing a 5 course meal the quickest.
Now how do you feel about the Jets and +8.5 (possibly nine)?
I really think this is a tremendous value, so let's open up our wallets a little and drop 20 units on the Jets -8.5 (we will wait until it's close to game time to see if it hits 9).
As always best of luck today fellas.
Stevek173 Value Picks as of 1.24.10 - 1-2, -4 units
We don't have to look far for today's pick. No hidden NCAA Basketball picks analyzing home and away stats, no looking to see who is healthy or not on the NHL board.
We are hitting the highly pulicized Jets Colts matchup.
The New York Jets and the Indianapolis Colts play for the AFC Championship in what many are calling "The Kharma Match" since the Jets likely wouldn't even be in the playoffs had the Colts not rested their starters in the 2nd half of their matchup week 16 of the regular season. Something you don't see often in a championship game is 2 first year
Let's pretend you knew nothing about the NFL season thus far. Maybe you were an astronaut, on Mars for the last year or something similar. Let's say you came back, and gave me a call looking for some action today. Without disclosing the team names, I simply told you there was a big NFL playoff game today with the following stats: Team A hosts the NFL's #1 overall defense. They have the #1 pass defense by far - allowing a minuscule 153.7 yards in the air per game, with the leagues next lowest average per game being 184.3 yards per game (Buffalo). This said team also features the 8th best rushing defense in the NFL at only 98.6 ypg. On offense team A had the top rushing offense in the NFL this year, and the 2nd worst passing offense.
Then I told you their opponent, team B featured the NFL's 2nd best passing offense. This said opponent had by far the leagues worst rushing stats per game at a tiny 80.9 ypg. They had the league's 9th worst rushing defense, the league's 14th best passing defense and a defense ranked 8th.
Would you consider taking team A without any further information? I think I would.
I then told you both teams had 1st year coaches with their respective teams.
Then I told you Team A was getting a massive 8.5 points, possibly 9 by game time.
Now would you take them? I definitely would.
The bottom line fellas is this is the reality of the situation in the Colts/Jets game today. Those stats look absurd to me. I still feel like the Colts pull it out, but with the amount of squeakers they have played this year, do you really think they are going to beat a team with by far the best passing and total defense in the league this year by more than 9 points? I sure as heck don't.
Sure if you further analyze the game there are things that are going to sway your feelings towards the Colts. Manning is arguably the best quarterback of all time, and has put up one of his best seasons in leading the Colts to what could possibly have been an undefeated season had their coach not benched their starters in the last meeting between these 2 teams. Take a look at the Cols' 2nd half of the season though. Sure, ignore the losses to the Jets and a drubbing at the hands of a bad Buffalo team because their starters weren't in. There were however many squeakers against teams in which they still had a lot to play for and their starters were still in. 18-14 at home versus a weak 49er team. 19-17 at home vs a barely above average Houston team. 35-34 at home versus a Patriot team that, with all due respect to what they have done over the last decade, was exposed by Baltimore as a vastly overrated team week 1 of this year's playoffs. A 35-31 squeaker in Jacksonville.
And with both coaches being in their first year, who do you like better Rex Ryan, or Jim Caldwell? Sure Manning is arguably more the coach of the Colts than Caldwell but I can sure as heck tell you that he wanted to stay in the game week 16 and when the "stuff" hit the fan look who was in charge. I like Ryan over Coldwell any day of the week - both in an NFL game and finishing a 5 course meal the quickest.
Now how do you feel about the Jets and +8.5 (possibly nine)?
I really think this is a tremendous value, so let's open up our wallets a little and drop 20 units on the Jets -8.5 (we will wait until it's close to game time to see if it hits 9).
As always best of luck today fellas.
Stevek173 Value Picks as of 1.24.10 - 1-2, -4 units