Pulling the trigger on AFC Championship

[Justin7]

I saw the opener of +7, and really liked the jets. At +7.5, I love them. At +8 +101, it becomes a mandatory play (I have some at +7.5, and more today at +8).

My line on the game... IND-3/38. If you need big action, you can parlay with the under. On pure statistical handicapping though, just take the Jets on the spread.

[Domestic]

I don't have the guts to pull the trigger on this one. Maybe I will closer to game time, best of luck with it!

[G's pks]

you should have waited if you like the jets 8.5, 9 going to happen.

[SexyMit]

I can't pull the trigger. I was liking Indy at -7. not sure now that it is beyond the 7 mark what I'm going to do now. However I do like the under! GL today!

[onthewhat]

[LT Profits]

you should have waited if you like the jets 8.5, 9 going to happen.

+8 +101 is better than +8.5 -110 or +9 -120.

[G's pks]

+8 +101 is better than +8.5 -110 or +9 -120.

unless the colts win by nine points ace! Then explain how it is better...

[LT Profits]

It's all about the percentages, 8 and 9 are dead numbers.

+8 +101 = +8.5 -103.8 = +9 -105.7 = +9.5 -107.7

The only way to get better value than +8 +101 is if this game hits +10, which is never going to happen.

[BeatTheJerk]

Uh oh I got the Colts -7.5 last night.

[seaborneq]

Hank is on the Colts. Everyone on the Jets can relax.

[CAUTION]

I don't think the jets +8 is +ev. I project rex ryan will be making very risking plays that will necessary for them to win (IE going for it on alot of 4th downs), but that drops the percentage of them covering the 8 points considerably.

If you think the fair line is +3, why wouldn't you take the jets +320? (Jets are +3 would be about +150-+170)

[whatsgood5]

I like the Jets here too. GL

[Justin7]

I don't think the jets +8 is +ev. I project rex ryan will be making very risking plays that will necessary for them to win (IE going for it on alot of 4th downs), but that drops the percentage of them covering the 8 points considerably.

If you think the fair line is +3, why wouldn't you take the jets +320? (Jets are +3 would be about +150-+170)

I obviously like both ML and the spread. Spread bets on dogs have lower volatility than MLs. You have to compare the ML you're getting to the spread, decide the values of each, and split your bets accordingly.

[LT Profits]

I don't think the jets +8 is +ev. I project rex ryan will be making very risking plays that will necessary for them to win (IE going for it on alot of 4th downs), but that drops the percentage of them covering the 8 points considerably.

If you think the fair line is +3, why wouldn't you take the jets +320? (Jets are +3 would be about +150-+170)

I don't think it will be necessary for Rex to make risky calls since I think the Jets will hold the Colts to only 20 points or so with "normal" play. The question then becomes can the Jets score 13 on an underrated Colts defense, and I say yes because the Jets defense can give the offense short fields to work with.

[Busterflywheel]

I Love +9 (Jets) Great Call Justin!

[Tsiggy Fresh]

WagerType:4 team teaser
Date: Team:
Jan 24 NFL [301] NEW YORK +16-110 (B+7)
Jan 24 NFL [302] TOTAL u47-110 (B+7) (NEW YORK vrs INDIANAPOLIS)
Jan 24 NFL [303] MINNESOTA +10½-110 (B+7)
Jan 24 NFL [303] TOTAL o47-110 (B+7) (MINNESOTA vrs NEW ORLEANS)

[Tsiggy Fresh]

..........

[JoshW]

+8 +105. Here is hoping the game is close.

[Glitch]

i think the colts are the better team but the jets want to win more

[mcbaseball10]

I don't think it will be necessary for Rex to make risky calls since I think the Jets will hold the Colts to only 20 points or so with "normal" play. The question then becomes can the Jets score 13 on an underrated Colts defense, and I say yes because the Jets defense can give the offense short fields to work with.

I very very rarely play parlays because I know they are a long term loser. But you smart guys (Justin, LT) see any value in betting two separate parlays today?

2.6 to 1 on each

Colts and Over
Jets and Under

[1st and Ten]

This thread does not make me happy

[Jimmy0607]

J E T S Jets Jets Jets

[lakerboy]

This thread does not make me happy

[pavyracer]

+8.5 Jets and Jets ML are must plays. Colts struggle to break great defenses. Ravens should have scored more points last week on the Colt turnovers and Colts were bailed out by the refs at the last two minutes of 1st half on their two scores. That game was much much closer than the final score. Rex Ryan will go bananas if the refs have the audacity to help the Colts in this game.

[lakerboy]

I like this play Justin but my only concern is that MAnning has been one of the few to break down Rex ryan defenses over the years.If the colts get an early TD we could be in trouble.

[SexyMit]

I won a future bet on Indi to win the AFC Championship from the SBR Bash. So I just hope they win honestly. It wasn't a big bet at all but its better then nothing!

[pavyracer]

I won a future bet on Indi to win the AFC Championship from the SBR Bash. So I just hope they win honestly. It wasn't a big bet at all but its better then nothing!

You can hedge it with your offshore account. This is like free money because you only need to risk very few on Jets ML.

[Justin7]

I very very rarely play parlays because I know they are a long term loser. But you smart guys (Justin, LT) see any value in betting two separate parlays today?

2.6 to 1 on each

Colts and Over
Jets and Under

This isn't strong enough to play blindly, so I would pass on Colts/Over.

Bookmaker pays 2.64:1, and some others pay 2.8:1. don't get screwed at 2.6:1.

[Slate]

I have a future bet on the jets to win SB $100 to win $3000, lets go Jets

[brock]

G/L with the Jets +8

[LT Profits]

I very very rarely play parlays because I know they are a long term loser. But you smart guys (Justin, LT) see any value in betting two separate parlays today?

2.6 to 1 on each

Colts and Over
Jets and Under

I get that those are correlated, but I think this game stays Under regardless of who wins.

[mcbaseball10]

So, if you could get 2.8:1 on Colts and Under or Jets and Under would it make sense to do it? Does it make sense to make two Parlays on a game? Just curious.

[20Four7]

I saw the opener of +7, and really liked the jets. At +7.5, I love them. At +8 +101, it becomes a mandatory play (I have some at +7.5, and more today at +8).

My line on the game... IND-3/38. If you need big action, you can parlay with the under. On pure statistical handicapping though, just take the Jets on the spread.

I already had pulled the trigger..... most of my money is Jets +8 +100.

Glad to see you on my side Justin

[james4512]

justin every person in america would be on the colts if they were -3. I think 90% of gamblers would take out 2nd mortages on their house at -3. The line is accurate im in a huge debate right now, i think im going to do a teaser but jets +14.5 or colts -2.5 hmmmmmmm

[big joe 1212]

Huge on the Jets too! Lets get em' !!!