Are you betting for value? Bet for Value pick #1 - The New Jersey Devils -1.5 Goals +170
Hello all.
Yesterday I was listening in on Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio, and he was talking about a couple of "sharps" he knows that live in Vegas and live off of betting. He explained how one guy is a real braggart about it, and wouldn't mind you knowing who he was. The one that got me curious was the 2nd one. He said that he would never want anyone know who he was. That's neither here nor there for me and there's a separate debate to be made about the obvious reasons each would or would not want to be exposed. What was important about him to me is what Cowherd said his motto is. "I am OK whether I win or lose as long as the bet was for value."
I realized that I have NOT been betting for value, which is a joke because I have a poker background that extends over 7 years, and I pride myself on being able to induce opponents to bet into my "nuts" if you will, or huge hand. Like any other poker player I know that sometimes when I get my Aces all in preflop the donkey next to me who just called me with his 9's is sometimes going to flop his set and it's good game for me. Like I always told myself, and I'd always tell others when they would start draining on me with their bad beat stories "All we can do is get it in with the best, that is our job at the table."
Far cry from where I've been betting wise. Though I don't select very often, the games I do select are often based on a rare time I have to watch a game that is on national TV or even more rare when one of my favorite teams is on TV and I want some action on the game. Sure, I'll analyze the game pretty good, but the fact that I am narrowing myself to that selection is nothing short of laziness and immaturity. I'm sure a lot of you here are above and beyond this and I'm ashamed that I have not been given the way I approach the poker tables; but it is what it is and it's time to try to evolve.
I think a good way to start doing this is to take my current points roll, 142 currently, and try to work it up on games. No more money bets until I prove to be winning over some decent period of time and selections.
I'll try to find a value pick to share with you along with why each day. We'll see where it goes and if it's looking good after awhile I'll move back to real money hopefully this time with a much stronger result. That being said...
Bet for value pick #1 - The New Jersey Devils -1.5 Goals (+170)
In case any of you haven't noticed, the talent pool in the NHL is extremely lopsided. Now to me this pick isn't quite as sexy as picking a team like the Sharks or Caps when giving the goal and a half because they score so many goals, but it still stands out as an extremely strong play to me.
We get the league's #1 defense here with only 105 goals against all season. I hear their goalie is a little above average - what's his name..Brody or something? Just kidding, we get all world Marty Brodeur between the pipes at home and what's not to like about that.
I wouldn't expect fireworks here but I say we cover with a 3-1 final score or something similar in favor of the Atlantic Division Leaders.
The most important thing is that at a user friendly price of +170 to give the goal and a half we are getting tremendous value with one of the best teams in the league, at home, against a very average one.
As always best of luck tonight fellas.
-Steve
Hello all.
Yesterday I was listening in on Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio, and he was talking about a couple of "sharps" he knows that live in Vegas and live off of betting. He explained how one guy is a real braggart about it, and wouldn't mind you knowing who he was. The one that got me curious was the 2nd one. He said that he would never want anyone know who he was. That's neither here nor there for me and there's a separate debate to be made about the obvious reasons each would or would not want to be exposed. What was important about him to me is what Cowherd said his motto is. "I am OK whether I win or lose as long as the bet was for value."
I realized that I have NOT been betting for value, which is a joke because I have a poker background that extends over 7 years, and I pride myself on being able to induce opponents to bet into my "nuts" if you will, or huge hand. Like any other poker player I know that sometimes when I get my Aces all in preflop the donkey next to me who just called me with his 9's is sometimes going to flop his set and it's good game for me. Like I always told myself, and I'd always tell others when they would start draining on me with their bad beat stories "All we can do is get it in with the best, that is our job at the table."
Far cry from where I've been betting wise. Though I don't select very often, the games I do select are often based on a rare time I have to watch a game that is on national TV or even more rare when one of my favorite teams is on TV and I want some action on the game. Sure, I'll analyze the game pretty good, but the fact that I am narrowing myself to that selection is nothing short of laziness and immaturity. I'm sure a lot of you here are above and beyond this and I'm ashamed that I have not been given the way I approach the poker tables; but it is what it is and it's time to try to evolve.
I think a good way to start doing this is to take my current points roll, 142 currently, and try to work it up on games. No more money bets until I prove to be winning over some decent period of time and selections.
I'll try to find a value pick to share with you along with why each day. We'll see where it goes and if it's looking good after awhile I'll move back to real money hopefully this time with a much stronger result. That being said...
Bet for value pick #1 - The New Jersey Devils -1.5 Goals (+170)
In case any of you haven't noticed, the talent pool in the NHL is extremely lopsided. Now to me this pick isn't quite as sexy as picking a team like the Sharks or Caps when giving the goal and a half because they score so many goals, but it still stands out as an extremely strong play to me.
We get the league's #1 defense here with only 105 goals against all season. I hear their goalie is a little above average - what's his name..Brody or something? Just kidding, we get all world Marty Brodeur between the pipes at home and what's not to like about that.
I wouldn't expect fireworks here but I say we cover with a 3-1 final score or something similar in favor of the Atlantic Division Leaders.
The most important thing is that at a user friendly price of +170 to give the goal and a half we are getting tremendous value with one of the best teams in the league, at home, against a very average one.
As always best of luck tonight fellas.
-Steve