Has anyone tried this strategy?

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • pavyracer
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 04-12-07
    • 82896

    #1
    Has anyone tried this strategy?
    Betting all your +EV plays at an A+ book and fading them at RebateWager so you can collect the 25% rebate cash back?

    What will the break even point need to be assuming all plays are equal units?

    Hitting 51%, 52?, etc?
  • INVEGA MAN
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-30-08
    • 6807

    #2
    Good idea
    Comment
    • Sam Odom
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-30-05
      • 58063

      #3
      Not having put too much thought into this , I dont think you will get IDENTICAL lines (spreads & MLs) at both. Getting whacked with the wrong off # will screw this idea up
      Comment
      • Dunder
        Restricted User
        • 10-26-09
        • 3345

        #4
        Originally Posted by Dunder
        I understand that the vast majority of your clientele are probably American, but would be interested to know why you do not accept Moneybookers/Neteller.

        I would guess that a fair number of European recreational players would like your concept but not the idea of having to use stone-age payment methods.

        I would also like to open an account with RebateWager (and would actually be intending to lose at your book), but would only do so on the basis of being able to use an e-wallet.
        Yes, I did think of that.
        Comment
        • tmorton
          Restricted User
          • 11-15-09
          • 560

          #5
          Good point Sam! Like the idea though!
          Comment
          • pavyracer
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 04-12-07
            • 82896

            #6
            Originally posted by Sam Odom
            Not having put too much thought into this , I dont think you will get IDENTICAL lines (spreads & MLs) at both. Getting whacked with the wrong off # will screw this idea up
            But you can also argue that you can catch middles with this strategy and cash twice if the lines are not the same.
            Comment
            • 1st and Ten
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 11-13-09
              • 5131

              #7
              I like it
              Comment
              • Sam Odom
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-30-05
                • 58063

                #8
                pavy , if you only played true middles (-2.5 / +3.5) your point is valid
                Comment
                • AMBlai01
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-16-08
                  • 5882

                  #9
                  There has to be some math guy out there than can give the numbers on this.
                  Comment
                  • pokernut9999
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 07-25-07
                    • 12757

                    #10
                    If your +EV plays only hit 51% to 52% there is a good chance they are not really +EV.
                    Comment
                    • pavyracer
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 04-12-07
                      • 82896

                      #11
                      Originally posted by pokernut9999
                      If your +EV plays only hit 51% to 52% there is a good chance they are not really +EV.
                      I'm not suggesting hitting these numbers.

                      I want to know what the break even point is for betting equal units at both books with equal lines with one book giving you 25% back on losses. It's a math question. Not a capping question.
                      Comment
                      • james4512
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-27-08
                        • 3707

                        #12
                        Originally posted by pavyracer
                        I'm not suggesting hitting these numbers.

                        I want to know what the break even point is for betting equal units at both books with equal lines with one book giving you 25% back on losses. It's a math question. Not a capping question.
                        if hit at 54% or less than youll make a small profit, but hitting at 55% or higher will only leave you barely breaking even if my math is correct
                        Comment
                        • 20Four7
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-08-07
                          • 6703

                          #13
                          are you assuming -110 for both sides? or is your A+ book reduced juice ala pinny (I won't say Phoenix anymore because they aren't a true reduced juice book).

                          Assuming -110 for both sides betting 1 unit each play:

                          Book A: win % 66.666 Win .666 Lose .3666 (with juice) Total .3 units
                          Rebate: Win% 33.333 Win .333 lose .73333 (with juice) total -0.4 units

                          25% rebate +.1 unit for a break even.

                          Hope this helps pavy now if your A+ book has better than -110 it will reduce the win percentage but it is a high number to break even.
                          Comment
                          • pavyracer
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 04-12-07
                            • 82896

                            #14
                            Thanks 20Four7.
                            Comment
                            Search
                            Collapse
                            SBR Contests
                            Collapse
                            Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                            Collapse
                            Working...