1. #1
    James D
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    Significant NCAA faves (9+ ) against spread for game and half tonight covered 5 of 24

    As I mentioned in my betting thread today I decided to take the points and play the over in games where there was a prohibited favorite, I decided to make the cutoff 9 points. My logic was the superior teams in these match ups have just a game or two left in reg season and then conference tournaments and postseason on the horizon. I felt this was an ideal spot to be lazy and overlook an opponent, play poor defense, not get the cover and give up tons of points. I felt the exact opposite applied to the weak teams facing a real strong team. This may be their final statement game of the year and the entire season might only have 2-3 games remaining, so I was expecting a max effort from the dogs.

    I played each game four wagers. Underdog and over, game and half. I only have two offices so no major line shopping is available. I won a few by a point, I lost a few by a point. Typical of basketball betting in general. Here is my final results for today.....

    NCAA overs 10-14 -5.3 units
    Ncaa sides. 19-5 +16.4 units
    soccer 0-2. -2.0. Units
    NBA. 2-0. +3.0 units

    Obviously the faves were sleepwalking tonight, several lost outright. Virtually all games I bet today the faves were unmotivated. As a matter of fact in the two college games the faves were focused and gave max effort I went a combined 0-8 yet I still had a huge day. Only Kansas and New Mexico played hard and dominated weaker teams resulting in favorite and under in both first half and game results resulting in 8 losses out of 8 wagers for me.Despite that horrendous 0-8 I was 29-19 in ncaa today.

    I saw 3-4 games tomorrow where this angle applies. I am going to wager the sides heavier then the totals but I will do both again. Despite a poor totals result I still feel the over has some value in these spots.

    This is was the busiest betting day I had since NFL playoffs. I made 52 bets wagering a total of 60 units. I won 12.1 units going 31-21 ATS

  2. #2
    boeing power
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    Nice job.

    I don't make 52 bets in a month....lol

  3. #3
    James D
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    Quote Originally Posted by boeing power View Post
    Nice job.

    I don't make 52 bets in a month....lol
    52 is usually a week and a half for me. But the games just kept going well early, it actually leveled off late. This is how I little by little ended up making 48 NCAA wagers

    I bet four NCAA pieces early in afternoon and went 3-1. So I bet the same angle at 4pm and went 7-1 in those. So now I am 10-2 on day and there are 5pm games where I bet 12 pieces of the same trend. At HT I am either 3-3 or 4-2 in the 5pm games so they seem to be starting well and the angle is still holding up. I am going out to meet friends for dinner but I don't want to pass on the 6pm,7pm and 8pm games, not the way I am crushing it. I also don't want to be insane either in case things go sour so I drop all bets to flat 1 unit each and fire at them all and go eat. I didn't have 20+ bets in action Until after 6pm and by then I was +10 units or so which gave me a little courage.

    I will be blindly betting this angle tomorrow as well.

  4. #4
    Tommy Karate
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    Good stuff. I like the logic.

  5. #5
    James D
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommy Karate View Post
    Good stuff. I like the logic.
    Thank you. There is no chance I have the time, energy, or probably even capability to handicap individual college games strictly on X's and O's on a regular basis and consistently beat the number. However I do believe seeing particular spots where these young men are going to and even more importantly not going to give a maximum effort is a much more recognizable angle. I have never played major D1 sports but I did go to college and I have tons of life experience like most older guys do, that help you see recognize these types of spots.

    Perfect example ...... The BCS ranked # 3 team has not covered their bowl game spread in ten years. You think that's a coincidence? These young men just missed playing for the BCS title and now have to sit and think about it for a month till they play their bowl game. During holiday, finals etc etc they are basically a non story the entire month till the second week of January when they play and all they are hearing about 24-7 on the news, on espn and everywhere else is about the two teams playing for the title and they know they JUST missed being one of those teams. You think the entire squad can practice that month or focus that month before their BCS game as well as they normally do? The answer is a resounding no they can not. They are young guys and they just missed and it will effect them. It probably effects the coaching staff significantly as well, these men just missed reaching the greatest achievement of their career. Some of these coaches have been chasing that title for 30-40 years. These type do spots are easier to locate (for me at least) then every trying to beat X's and O's, match ups, tempo etc etc


    The last cover was USC # 3 28-14 win vs #4 ranked michigan in 2004 rose bowl.
    Last edited by James D; 03-06-14 at 11:03 AM. Reason: Actually ten years since BCS #3 covered, not nine years.

  6. #6
    IWANTMONEY
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    I wonder how the results worked out between home and aways for your bets?

  7. #7
    James D
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    Quote Originally Posted by IWANTMONEY View Post
    I wonder how the results worked out between home and aways for your bets?
    I will break it down for you in about 30 minutes if you like. I can also break down game and halves. Will do it if you want me to just let me know. I am betting the angle today again and going to look at it a bunch this next week if it holds form. The only mitigating factor I Struggled with was where I should make the cutoff. I decided 9 point spread, it's high enough that one team is considered significantly better then the other. I wanted the perceived advantage to be high enough that the superior team would have a real chance to be less focused.

  8. #8
    IWANTMONEY
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    I was just thinking, following your logic through, the favoured teams might tend to sleepwalk more away from home - just a thought

  9. #9
    James D
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    Quote Originally Posted by IWANTMONEY View Post
    I was just thinking, following your logic through, the favoured teams might tend to sleepwalk more away from home - just a thought
    Really? I can think of duke yesterday off the top of my head with that being accurate but I would think the exact opposite to be true. When you are away you are almost forced into a more focused mindset. Your real life distractions are not there. Also home court advantage instead of being on road not only adds like 7 points to the spread but teams have much much more success in basketball at home so playing a weak opponent at home this time of year seems like a very "comfortable" spot for these young guys on the better teams. These comfortable are what I am looking for because they can bite a team in the butt when they are not prepared.

    Will break it down and post it within hour

  10. #10
    jjgold
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    James great work
    Look forward to your future posts

    Your sharp as a blade

  11. #11
    IWANTMONEY
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    I was looking at it from the other angle, the home underdog may be more focused and the away team may be more inclined to throw in the towel away from their home fans.

  12. #12
    James D
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    Quote Originally Posted by IWANTMONEY View Post
    I was looking at it from the other angle, the home underdog may be more focused and the away team may be more inclined to throw in the towel away from their home fans.
    Oh ok I got it. I will say there will be very few spots for it though because being a 9+ Dog at home means the road team is leaps and bounds better when it comes to personnel. It does happen though, WF /duke yesterday for example. I will post the numbers ITT shortly

  13. #13
    crustyme
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    James great work
    Look forward to your future posts

    Your sharp as a blade

    sharp?

    the dumb pedo lost 8k on a shitty bet and hasn't been able to return to vegas in 6 months cause he's on tilt.

    lol

  14. #14
    James D
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    Quote Originally Posted by crustyme View Post
    sharp?

    the dumb pedo lost 8k on a shitty bet and hasn't been able to return to vegas in 6 months cause he's on tilt.

    lol

    Crusty you ugly broke b@@ch welcome back!!! Did they temp ban you for a day? No other reason your sorry ass would be gone for 24 hours . It gives me so much joy that your first post after your one day ban is trolling me . You must have gone through withdrawal not being able to come here for a day .

    If anyone wants a few good laughs and to see me COMPLETELY owning this trolling b@@ch please check out the thread were I first met this lovable loser. Granted more loser then lovable, but you get the point.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...ight-boys.html

    I am having lunch in malibu so I won't be able to spend the day with you crusty, I really hope you have a great day.


    PS JJ thanks for the kind words, I am not a sharp, never claimed to be either. I just have a reasonable opinion look for spots, and I share it once in a while. I will say this, when I post games I put them all in the same thread so that my record is accurate. So many lame guys make five threads and only talk about the winning ones, you will never see that with me. Before I leave for lunch I will post my plays then I will be gone most the day. Good luck to you and everyone else.

  15. #15
    crustyme
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    enjoy your 99 cent burger, brokedikkk.

    lol

  16. #16
    James D
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    Quote Originally Posted by crustyme View Post
    enjoy your 99 cent burger, brokedikkk.

    lol
    Yeah we don't have 99cent anything in malibu you fat bi@ch. I am posting my plays in another thread, you and your snaggly tooth kids can sit in front of your 19 inch television tonight and root against me . Enjoy your night.

  17. #17
    crustyme
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    i'll be in vegas placing another large bet. something u can't do, brokedikkk.


  18. #18
    James D
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    Quote Originally Posted by crustyme View Post
    i'll be in vegas placing another large bet. something u can't do, brokedikkk.

    Yeah you showed me your "large bets" LOL. They are like my average bet juice. Let me give you some advice, take 5 bucks off the bet and get that daughter of yours some toothpaste. Because unless she has a mouth full of dice in that picture her grill is a disgrace. Have to go for the day so have fun.


    One last thing, you want to go heads up ANY amount you want we can both post the money with sbr John or another established guy. I know you don't have the balls or money, but if can steal your daughters tooth fairy money, and trust me that money is coming, those chicklets of hers are about to surrender LOL, then we can do the bet.

  19. #19
    crustyme
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    i'd rather have 10 $800 winners than 1 $8k loser.

    ask someone with an iq over 80 to explain to u why.

    lol

    post a winning ticket from this year and maybe you will be taken seriously. posting a losing ticket from 6 months ago that anyone could pick off the casino floor just doesnt cut it, brokedikkk pedo.



  20. #20
    cruzing vato
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    So if James is making 52 $8000 bets a day, why can't he pay me the $200 for winning his contest?

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