I see the Chargers ranging from +185 to +250 to win the AFC, not the Superbowl just the AFC.
So at the best price, the + 250 I think this is a great play. I think this will give better value than playing them at home than the following week even if they have to go to Indy the following week. It will certainly be better than playing them the next two weeks if the Colts happen to lose, and that wouldnt surprise me. If the Colts lose their first playoff game, then both games will be played in SD and they will probably be -200 both games which comes out to +125.
Even if The Chargers have to go to Indy for the AFC Championship game, I wouldnt expect theColts to be higher than a 3 point favorite with a -160 ML, so still if we figure Chargers at -200 then + 140 which comes out to +260.
Figuring the Colts having a 2/3 chance to win their first game here we have (260 + 260 + 125) /3 = +215 as the average price you would get on the Chargers playing them these next two games, so I like the +250 as the way to play them if you like them.
Of course all that doesnt mean anything unless you like the Chargers. There are many reasons that I like this Chargers team. First, the have the longest winning streak in the NFL and IMO are the best team in the NFL. This 11 game winning streak was not compiled by beating up a bunch of last place teams either.
During the winning streak The Chargers beat the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Broncos, Bengals, and Titans. Many of these teams got destroyed by the Chargers who won 5 of their last 11 games by 25 points or more.
I think the Chargers have a very balanced team. They have a very good Defense, a great running game still whether people want to believe it or not. And even though the Chargers QB isnt a big name like Manning or Farve he gets it done every week and I think he is one of the most underrated QB's the NFL has seen.
Another big reason I like the Chargers is that I just flat out dont trust or believe in the Colts. Of course, the Colts could win the Super Bowl, I cant say anything bad about a team that started 14-0 and has an undeniably great QB. But to me, The Colts have a lot of weaknesses namly teh defense that maybe cant be exploited by most of the NFL but when they get into the playoffs and are playing the big boys I think the defense gets exploited.
I think there is a good chance the Colts lose their first game, and even if they dont I like the Chargers at Indianapolis. The Chargers have a very good recent history against the Colts, they beat the Colts in 2005 when the Colts were 13-0, not the SuperBowl defending Colts out of the playoffs in 2007, then knocked the Colts out again last year when it seemed noone was giving the 8-8 Chargers a chance in hell in that game.
Over the last 5 years or so, The Chargers have won every big game they have played against the Colts. If they have to go to Indy for the AFC Championship, I give the Chargers a 55% chance of winning that game. Its in a dome, weather in Indy is horrid in January but that wont be a factor in dome.
Anything can happen as any team in the AFC playoffs could win the AFC, I wouldnt look past the Patriots for sure, but we are looking to bet + EV and I think the Chargers at +250 is big time +EV as that represents less than a 30% likelihood of the bet winning, when I would say true likelihood is 40% or maybe a little higher.
So at the best price, the + 250 I think this is a great play. I think this will give better value than playing them at home than the following week even if they have to go to Indy the following week. It will certainly be better than playing them the next two weeks if the Colts happen to lose, and that wouldnt surprise me. If the Colts lose their first playoff game, then both games will be played in SD and they will probably be -200 both games which comes out to +125.
Even if The Chargers have to go to Indy for the AFC Championship game, I wouldnt expect theColts to be higher than a 3 point favorite with a -160 ML, so still if we figure Chargers at -200 then + 140 which comes out to +260.
Figuring the Colts having a 2/3 chance to win their first game here we have (260 + 260 + 125) /3 = +215 as the average price you would get on the Chargers playing them these next two games, so I like the +250 as the way to play them if you like them.
Of course all that doesnt mean anything unless you like the Chargers. There are many reasons that I like this Chargers team. First, the have the longest winning streak in the NFL and IMO are the best team in the NFL. This 11 game winning streak was not compiled by beating up a bunch of last place teams either.
During the winning streak The Chargers beat the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Broncos, Bengals, and Titans. Many of these teams got destroyed by the Chargers who won 5 of their last 11 games by 25 points or more.
I think the Chargers have a very balanced team. They have a very good Defense, a great running game still whether people want to believe it or not. And even though the Chargers QB isnt a big name like Manning or Farve he gets it done every week and I think he is one of the most underrated QB's the NFL has seen.
Another big reason I like the Chargers is that I just flat out dont trust or believe in the Colts. Of course, the Colts could win the Super Bowl, I cant say anything bad about a team that started 14-0 and has an undeniably great QB. But to me, The Colts have a lot of weaknesses namly teh defense that maybe cant be exploited by most of the NFL but when they get into the playoffs and are playing the big boys I think the defense gets exploited.
I think there is a good chance the Colts lose their first game, and even if they dont I like the Chargers at Indianapolis. The Chargers have a very good recent history against the Colts, they beat the Colts in 2005 when the Colts were 13-0, not the SuperBowl defending Colts out of the playoffs in 2007, then knocked the Colts out again last year when it seemed noone was giving the 8-8 Chargers a chance in hell in that game.
Over the last 5 years or so, The Chargers have won every big game they have played against the Colts. If they have to go to Indy for the AFC Championship, I give the Chargers a 55% chance of winning that game. Its in a dome, weather in Indy is horrid in January but that wont be a factor in dome.
Anything can happen as any team in the AFC playoffs could win the AFC, I wouldnt look past the Patriots for sure, but we are looking to bet + EV and I think the Chargers at +250 is big time +EV as that represents less than a 30% likelihood of the bet winning, when I would say true likelihood is 40% or maybe a little higher.
