Poll: risk assessment

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  • pico
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-05-07
    • 27321

    #1
    Poll: risk assessment
    I am just curious how would you guys use freeplays. A freeplay is basically a free bet. For example, a free play of 100 usd means you can use it as a wager and you get to keep whatever you win with it but you can only use free play once.

    Here are 3 events to pick from:

    1) baseball team 1 vs baseball team 2
    ML odds: -110 -110

    2) USA soccer team vs UK soccer team (regulation time)
    USA -1/2: +400
    UK -1/2: -300
    Draw: +200

    3) prop: will i roll a seven if i roll two die twice?
    YES: +150
    NO: -180

    how would you use 100 dollars worth of free play?
    7
    Get a guranteed payoff 45 dollars by betting 50 on each team in game 1
    0%
    2
    Bet everying on +400, maybe i can win 400 dollars
    0%
    4
    Bet the entire amount that I might roll a 7 in the next two rolls
    0%
    0
    others: please describe how would you bet it in your post
    0%
    1
  • Dark Horse
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-14-05
    • 13764

    #2
    I'd just use is as a normal bet. Doesn't make any difference that the play is free. So the MLB play for me.
    Comment
    • Ganchrow
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-28-05
      • 5011

      #3
      Originally posted by Dark Horse
      I'd just use is as a normal bet. Doesn't make any difference that the play is free. So the MLB play for me.
      This would be ill-advised.

      Check out my Freeplay Value Calculator to compare hedged freeplay outcomes.

      Remember that you can always receive a risk-free 75% of the notional value of the freeplay by betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 3-team parlay at +600, or a sure 76.77% of notional betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 4-team parlay at +1228.3 (true parlay odds).
      Comment
      • pico
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 04-05-07
        • 27321

        #4
        Originally posted by Ganchrow
        This would be ill-advised.

        Check out my Freeplay Value Calculator to compare hedged freeplay outcomes.

        Remember that you can always receive a risk-free 75% of the notional value of the freeplay by betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 3-team parlay at +600, or a sure 76.77% of notional betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 4-team parlay at +1228.3 (true parlay odds).
        wow thanks. i think i wasted my free bet of 100 dollars by splitting 50-50 bet on copa america soccer game argintina vs paraguay 1st half. i risked 50 free play on argintina 1st half -0.5 at +107 and risked draw 1st half at +125. i don't think paraguay can be ahead by halftime (the odds for that is +300 i think). So i would win either 107 dollars or 125 dollars or 0, which is unlikely.
        Comment
        • pico
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 04-05-07
          • 27321

          #5
          it was a draw
          Comment
          • Dark Horse
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 12-14-05
            • 13764

            #6
            I picked from the three available choices.

            But I almost forgot that little nugget of wisdom.
            Comment
            • degenerate#1
              SBR High Roller
              • 08-07-06
              • 125

              #7
              I like to save them for a risky underdog that I would have wagered from my bankroll but get to use the freeroll instead.
              Comment
              • pico
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 04-05-07
                • 27321

                #8
                Originally posted by degenerate#1
                I like to save them for a risky underdog that I would have wagered from my bankroll but get to use the freeroll instead.
                that is what i was thinking about doing. i was looking for +400 bets, but didn't find anything i like, so i bet on copa america soccer.
                Comment
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