No. 6 Boise St and No. 3 TCU meet in the Fiesta Bowl on Monday in a showdown of the top two non-BCS conference teams. The Horned Frogs edged the Broncos 17-16 last year as a 3.5-point favorite, but there is reason to believe TCU is significantly better than they were last year, which is reflected in the 7.5-point spread for this year’s matchup. Justin has an interesting take on this line that involves his model’s number and the Sagarin ratings.
No. 10 Iowa burned a lot of sharp money that bet against them during the regular season, and now they head into the Orange Bowl on Tuesday as a 4-point dog to No. 9 Georgia Tech. The Hawkeyes faded a bit at the end of the year when starting QB Ricky Stanzi went down with an injury, but he is now back to full strength. Justin has an opinion on this game that one of the lines is significantly off.
Mississippi was ranked as high as No. 4 this year, but they go into the Cotton Bowl on Saturday unranked as a 3-point fave over current No. 19 Oklahoma St. The Rebels have clear talent in every area of the game, but they will likely face a stiff challenge from the Cowboys, who faltered badly in their last game of the regular season when QB Zac Robinson was playing through an injury. Robinson’s condition though is reportedly “close to 100%” for this game.
Justin and Loshak give a quick rundown of the rest of the bowl games between January 2nd and 6th, including Northern Illinois/South Florida, UConn/South Carolina, East Carolina/Arkansas, Michigan St/Texas Tech, and Troy/Central Michigan.
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