A soccer play for PT

[Dunder]

I will not post plays very often but this should be a good one.

Scottish Soccer
January 3rd
Celtic v Rangers
Under 2.5 goals
Bet Phoenix 1.87 (-115)

Not many US facing books have odds posted for this match yet, and Euro books have slightly better odds but historically the under tightens as the match comes closer.

I have this ´capped at 2.02 goals and have a 1 unit bet on the under 2.0 (+146) as well 1 unit on under 2.5.

These two teams will almost certainly fight out for the SPL championship this year again and very often play tight games which are midfield battles. Both teams are fairly toothless upfront which is demonstrated by their poor records against the quality opposition faced in the Champion´s League and Europa League.

If you don´t play at Phoenix, wait till your book offers odds, anything better than -120 is still very good value.

[Chi_archie]

good luck

[RogueJuror]

dunder where are you from?

[jellobiafra]

Good luck.

He's a Brit I think Juror. What's up man?

[RogueJuror]

double r double t

what's up my man, how's life?

fine and dandy on this end

[Dunder]

I am Scottish (born in Edinburgh).
I lived in the Far East for 12 years (Singapore, Hong Kong and Guangzhou/Canton).
Currently living about 30 miles from London.

When my kids have finished schooling, I will probably look to move somewhere with a more pleasant climate.

[jellobiafra]

double r double t

what's up my man, how's life?

fine and dandy on this end

Doing good man. Good to see you around these parts again.



Dunder sorry for mistaking you for a Brit. Although, is that a mistake? Are Scot's technically Brits too? I'm being serious. I'm completely ignorant here.

[durito]

Ok I bet it. Phoenix max is $250. Pinny has -116

[durito]

**** it, I'll hit pinny too

[Dunder]

Doing good man. Good to see you around these parts again.

Dunder sorry for mistaking you for a Brit. Although, is that a mistake? Are Scot's technically Brits too? I'm being serious. I'm completely ignorant here.

Yes I am a Brit. Some Scots would object to being termed as a Brit, not me.

[durito]

pinny moved to -120 phoenix to -118

[RogueJuror]

no shit

i've lived in guangzhou and hong kong and am currently in london

i think i'ma like you, looking forward to talking with you in the future

[Dunder]

no shit

i've lived in guangzhou and hong kong and am currently in london

i think i'ma like you, looking forward to talking with you in the future

Likewise. It´s a small world.
Shipping business by any chance?

[Dunder]

pinny moved to -120 phoenix to -118

In which case:

a) They know my username here or;
b) jjgold has hit it big time.

[durito]

In which case:

a) They know my username here or;
b) jjgold has hit it big time.

c) Durito bet it at both

[RogueJuror]

c) Durito bet it at both

Shipping business by any chance?

no, wagering

[Dunder]

c) Durito bet it at both

GL durito.
I don´t use terms like "lock" and "sure thing" but this one is solidly +EV

[Dunder]

no, wagering

Me too nowadays but when I lived in Asia, I was in the container shipping business.
Which part of London do you live in?

[RogueJuror]

no im only visiting london for new years

im living in a town near livorno, italy

[Jimmy0607]

I love watching the games between these two, great rivalry

[Dunder]

no im only visiting london for new years

im living in a town near livorno, italy

Ah Leghorn, another port city.
Lovely area.

[Karayilan9]

Derbies are known to be low on scoring and high on passion, the Old Firm Derby is one of the classics, not just a football game it runs deeper than that.

This game is tricky, its hard to trust Tony Mowbray teams defensive capabilities, Mowbray thinks he's the manager of Barcelona, he tries to play attacking, open, free flowing football but you need the players to pull it off but none of the teams he's managed have been top class. The defensive record of his teams as a result are not impressive, they leave themselves vulnerable at the back.

Rangers have been scoring for fun lately but have a better defense but you can't look into stats and form too much in these games, both teams want each others scalp and to have bragging rights in the city. The teams are pretty evenly matched, it will come down to the manager to make the difference with tactics and strategies so I'd have more faith in Walter Smith who owns Tony Mowbray in H2H's.

Another angle to look at this game is 'cards', the derby is a very passionate affair and there has never been less than 6 yellow cards, the games average around 10 yellow cards, its been much higher in some games and there is often a red card. A rookie ref will be in charge of this game, Steve Conroy has never been in control of such a high profile game. Most card bets are either done on points, or cards, I'll put a wager on Over 9 points and the highest over for the cards which is ranging from 5-6 yellow cards, there is value on this angle.

P.s, if you haven't wagered on cards before it can be confusing, generally.

Betfair - 1 yellow card = 2 points, 1 red card = 5 points

UK books points system - 1 yellow card = 10 points, 1 red card = 25 points

[Jimmy0607]

Way deeper Kari , this game has religion involved

[Dunder]

Derbies are known to be low on scoring and high on passion, the Old Firm Derby is one of the classics, not just a football game it runs deeper than that.

This game is tricky, its hard to trust Tony Mowbray teams defensive capabilities, Mowbray thinks he's the manager of Barcelona, he tries to play attacking, open, free flowing football but you need the players to pull it off but none of the teams he's managed have been top class. The defensive record of his teams as a result are not impressive, they leave themselves vulnerable at the back.

Rangers have been scoring for fun lately but have a better defense but you can't look into stats and form too much in these games, both teams want each others scalp and to have bragging rights in the city. The teams are pretty evenly matched, it will come down to the manager to make the difference with tactics and strategies so I'd have more faith in Walter Smith who owns Tony Mowbray in H2H's.

Another angle to look at this game is 'cards', the derby is a very passionate affair and there has never been less than 6 yellow cards, the games average around 10 yellow cards, its been much higher in some games and there is often a red card. A rookie ref will be in charge of this game, Steve Conroy has never been in control of such a high profile game. Most card bets are either done on points, or cards, I'll put a wager on Over 9 points and the highest over for the cards which is ranging from 5-6 yellow cards, there is value on this angle.

P.s, if you haven't wagered on cards before it can be confusing, generally.

Betfair - 1 yellow card = 2 points, 1 red card = 5 points

UK books points system - 1 yellow card = 10 points, 1 red card = 25 points

Pitched battle nature of Old Firm games is normally fully priced into the cards market (which I would normally play with spread betting rather than fixed odds).

Interesting angle with the rookie referee however, it will be a fearsome atmosphere. GL

[pavyracer]

How do you cap a soccer game at 2.02 goals? I have been betting soccer for the last 25 years and have never capped a game at 2.02 goals. I either cap it at 2, 3, 4 goals etc.

[Dunder]

How do you cap a soccer game at 2.02 goals? I have been betting soccer for the last 25 years and have never capped a game at 2.02 goals. I either cap it at 2, 3, 4 goals etc.

I have developed a model (not overly complex) which chews through various data and spits out a predicted score - In this case Celtic 1.09 - Rangers 0.93.

Another application then scours data from XML feeds to find potentially good betting opportunities.

[pavyracer]

I have developed a model (not overly complex) which chews through various data and spits out a predicted score - In this case Celtic 1.09 - Rangers 0.93.

Another application then scours data from XML feeds to find potentially good betting opportunities.

You can get this for free. Go to www.soccerway.com and click on the teams interested. It will give you average goals scored and conceded in both home and away games. The biggest flow of these stats is it doesn't account for lineup missings, formations, referees and weather conditions which are very important in predicting an over/under.

Good luck on your play. Playing the under in rivalry games is the right decision. Throw away all stats.

[Dunder]

You can get this for free. Go to www.soccerway.com and click on the teams interested. It will give you average goals scored and conceded in both home and away games. The biggest flow of these stats is it doesn't account for lineup missings, formations, referees and weather conditions which are very important in predicting an over/under.

Good luck on your play. Playing the under in rivalry games is the right decision. Throw away all stats.

When I said it wasn´t overly complex, like any developed model, it is still fair a bit more detailed than what you describe. Whilst it utilises the stats available at places like soccerway, the weighting of such raw stats is fairly low.

[ZXCVBNM]

Good pick, this particular game rarely goes over.

[Hammondr]

the last game at ibrox went and rangers are missing there best cb in bougheera of to african nations and celtic aint got not cbs of fbs, the celtic defence been leaking goals and cannot defend a crossed ball and rangers been scoring alot allthough miller know suspended for this game and boyds record aint great against the tic, but i do believe there will be goals allthough rangers will be happy to keep it tight play 4-5-1 maybe sneak a win but be happy with the draw as they have a 7point lead in the league

[Karayilan9]

Good pick, this particular game rarely goes over.

Over the past 5 years, 12 Unders 8 Overs, last 5 games Celtic at home 3 Overs 2 Unders, since Tony Mobray became manager of Celtic the last derby went Over.

[mihaita666]

i think this goes over too

[sockeye]

The last home game celtic vs rangers mostly ended in over 2.5, also both club scores a lot in their recent games.

15/02-09 Premier League Celtic vs. Rangers 0:0
31/08-08 Premier League Celtic vs. Rangers 2:4 27/04-08 Premier League Celtic vs. Rangers 3:2 16/04-08 Premier League Celtic vs. Rangers 2:1
Celtic's last 6 matches:
26/12-09 Premier League Celtic vs. Hamilton 2:0
20/12-09 Premier League Hearts of Midlothian vs. Celtic 2:1
17/12-09 UEFA Europa League, Group C Rapid Vienna vs. Celtic 3:3
12/12-09 Premier League FC Motherwell vs. Celtic 2:3
05/12-09 Premier League Celtic vs. Aberdeen 3:0
02/12-09 UEFA Europa League, Group C Celtic vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv 2:0
Rangers last six matches:
30/12-09 Premier League Rangers vs. Dundee Utd 7:1
27/12-09 Premier League Hibernian vs. Rangers 1:4
19/12-09 Premier League Rangers vs. FC Motherwell 6:1
15/12-09 Premier League Dundee Utd vs. Rangers 0:3
12/12-09 Premier League Rangers vs. St. Johnstone 3:0
09/12-09 UEFA Champions League, Group G FC Sevilla vs. Rangers 1:0
Is it all points for an over game?

[Dimitris84]

I will not post plays very often but this should be a good one.

Scottish Soccer
January 3rd
Celtic v Rangers
Under 2.5 goals
Bet Phoenix 1.87 (-115)

Not many US facing books have odds posted for this match yet, and Euro books have slightly better odds but historically the under tightens as the match comes closer.

I have this ´capped at 2.02 goals and have a 1 unit bet on the under 2.0 (+146) as well 1 unit on under 2.5.

These two teams will almost certainly fight out for the SPL championship this year again and very often play tight games which are midfield battles. Both teams are fairly toothless upfront which is demonstrated by their poor records against the quality opposition faced in the Champion´s League and Europa League.

If you don´t play at Phoenix, wait till your book offers odds, anything better than -120 is still very good value.

Ok I will entrust you, in order to we see…

[SRBI]

Rangers put (if I remember correctly) 7 goals through the net of their last opponent (few days ago) - and 3 of those goals came whilst playing with 1 man down. Tough to play this one under, even if it is a derby.

Rangers are well in form, and Celtic can surely put at least one through the net.