This has been a play I loved all week, debated last night on releasing it or not, and even playing it at all, after my slaughtering yesterday. It was supposed to be my NFL play of the year...
This year has been a rather rough one for me. I'm your typical snobby NFL handicapper. I hate when you play shit numbers. I hate going against smart money. I like fading the public. I like dogs in primetime games. This year however, has been very unique. The public had been raping the books for weeks and weeks, then heavy dog days, back to heavy public days, now back to dogs this weekend. Just has been attrocious to predict, at least to me. While not very comforting in the least, it seems as if I'm not alone in this. Lots of solid NFL guys from previous years seem to be having difficulty this season reading the market. My hats off those who have held strong, made adjustments, and battled this year, like Fezzik, The Shrink, Journeyman, etc...
This has always been my time of year, as well. While the public was getting slaughtered, and the lines were getting tighter, I'd excel. December football, holiday games, NFL Playoffs, I was making money. After thinking this game over today, I have to hold strong, and keep up the fight. My game of the year, is my ****in game of the year...bad day, week, or year. A bad showing doesn't change that I love this game.
Let's break it down a little bit...
Obviously my numbers favor New York, but that would be a boring writeup...so other things to consider...
The New York Giants OWN the Washington Redskins. In New York, down in DC, it doesn't matter. New York is 6-1 SU it's last 7 games against Washington. They're also a very strong road team, sporting a 19-6 record in their last 25 games away from Giants Stadium. New York's playoff "dreams" are also on the line tonight in this game, after wins by both the Eagles and the Cowboys this weekend.
These are two physical football teams, who will both be fired up and looking to do their best. You have to think Washington comes to play, because what would be better than ending all possible hope for a division rival's chances at making the playoffs, at home, in a primetime game, on Monday Night Football. The Giants on the other hand, know this is it. After the loss against Philadelphia, the Giants have tightened the noose. They need a miracle, and to win out on the year. Tonight is part 1. This is the easiest game for them out of the next three, and a must-win.
The weather will be a factor tonight. It just snowed A LOT in Washington, and it's still very cold. It should be around 32 for kick off, with wind chills around 26 degrees. The temperature will continue to fall throughout the game obviously.
While Eli Manning is far from the best cold weather quarterback, I'd rather have him leading my team than Jason Campbell, who I feel will have a hard time against the Giants pass defense, which is suprisingly ranked 3rd in the league on the road with only 181.3 yards allowed.
Washington's only hope to win this game is to outscore the Giants, who should move the ball effectively with a now complete and pretty healthy backfield in Jacobs and Bradshaw. The Giants, didn't struggle offensively against Philadelphia, they match up poorly defnsively against the Eagles going back the past few seasons. That's not the case here...Also, when the defenses start stuffing the run in the cold, and the game goes to the air late, I'll easily take the team with the better pass defense, and the better QB.
New York Giants ML (-130)
This year has been a rather rough one for me. I'm your typical snobby NFL handicapper. I hate when you play shit numbers. I hate going against smart money. I like fading the public. I like dogs in primetime games. This year however, has been very unique. The public had been raping the books for weeks and weeks, then heavy dog days, back to heavy public days, now back to dogs this weekend. Just has been attrocious to predict, at least to me. While not very comforting in the least, it seems as if I'm not alone in this. Lots of solid NFL guys from previous years seem to be having difficulty this season reading the market. My hats off those who have held strong, made adjustments, and battled this year, like Fezzik, The Shrink, Journeyman, etc...
This has always been my time of year, as well. While the public was getting slaughtered, and the lines were getting tighter, I'd excel. December football, holiday games, NFL Playoffs, I was making money. After thinking this game over today, I have to hold strong, and keep up the fight. My game of the year, is my ****in game of the year...bad day, week, or year. A bad showing doesn't change that I love this game.
Let's break it down a little bit...
Obviously my numbers favor New York, but that would be a boring writeup...so other things to consider...
The New York Giants OWN the Washington Redskins. In New York, down in DC, it doesn't matter. New York is 6-1 SU it's last 7 games against Washington. They're also a very strong road team, sporting a 19-6 record in their last 25 games away from Giants Stadium. New York's playoff "dreams" are also on the line tonight in this game, after wins by both the Eagles and the Cowboys this weekend.
These are two physical football teams, who will both be fired up and looking to do their best. You have to think Washington comes to play, because what would be better than ending all possible hope for a division rival's chances at making the playoffs, at home, in a primetime game, on Monday Night Football. The Giants on the other hand, know this is it. After the loss against Philadelphia, the Giants have tightened the noose. They need a miracle, and to win out on the year. Tonight is part 1. This is the easiest game for them out of the next three, and a must-win.
The weather will be a factor tonight. It just snowed A LOT in Washington, and it's still very cold. It should be around 32 for kick off, with wind chills around 26 degrees. The temperature will continue to fall throughout the game obviously.
While Eli Manning is far from the best cold weather quarterback, I'd rather have him leading my team than Jason Campbell, who I feel will have a hard time against the Giants pass defense, which is suprisingly ranked 3rd in the league on the road with only 181.3 yards allowed.
Washington's only hope to win this game is to outscore the Giants, who should move the ball effectively with a now complete and pretty healthy backfield in Jacobs and Bradshaw. The Giants, didn't struggle offensively against Philadelphia, they match up poorly defnsively against the Eagles going back the past few seasons. That's not the case here...Also, when the defenses start stuffing the run in the cold, and the game goes to the air late, I'll easily take the team with the better pass defense, and the better QB.
New York Giants ML (-130)
