Am I insane

1st and Ten · 12-19-09, 11:46 AM

Nets just suck....what the rational for the pick?

FreeFall · 12-19-09, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by 1st and Ten

Nets just suck....what the rational for the pick?

this one went over your head. Are smart people that hard to find in PT?

Matt Rain · 12-19-09, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

this one went over your head. Are smart people that hard to find in PT?

Buts the Netz has no shots! Save you're money, fool!

Mudcat · 12-19-09, 12:29 PM

I question your premise. It looks like you are saying the Nets should win this match-up once out of every 4-5 events.

The Nets have only won 7.4% of all their games this year - and that includes games against other crap teams. If you just look at their home games, the number is 10%. I can't see why the expectation would suddenly become significantly higher against arguably the very best team. Pretty straight-forward logic says their chances against the best team are lower than the whole field.

I know I am over-simplifying but what is see is: you jumped right to this 20-25% winning expectation without explaining where you got it from. It doesn't look right to me.

smitch124 · 12-19-09, 12:34 PM

He has to do it all alone.

ehp6737 · 12-19-09, 12:43 PM

yes.....ur are insane

Dunder · 12-19-09, 12:45 PM

In general, Lakers ML odds ARE going to be on the sharp side.

My model gives the Nets a 12-13% chance and would be interested to know what variables you are using that could get them as high as 25%.

In answer to your question, no you are not insane but you are using data that is possibly unique and, equally possibly, deeply flawed.

If you have faith in your handicapping then go for it in a big way.

koby25 · 12-19-09, 12:45 PM

Trust me don't take this game. You are insane. Sorry

pokernut9999 · 12-19-09, 01:03 PM

Nets are 2-25 playing the Lakers

What should the ML be ?

1st and Ten · 12-19-09, 01:20 PM

I would take the Nets ML if you made it 4 on 5 for one of the quarters.

bettilimbroke999 · 12-19-09, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

Or are all lakers money lines this off? I have the nets to win the game tonight by around 25%. Say I'm off by five and they only win 20% of the time.

I take them at The Greek for +1000
100/1100 = 9.09% SU
this if off by 10? Or maybe 15 if I'm that good.

Does this happen all year?

I put the odds of this Nets team beating this Lakers team at around 10% or less, 1 out of 5 is ridiculous, this Nets team hasn't won but 1 out of 10 of the games they've played for the season, predicting 1 out of 4 or 5 against the Lakers is hard to believe

FreeFall · 12-19-09, 02:49 PM

We'll I'm beating the pinnacle closing line so far