If Sammy continues to use his local, where he pays 10% of his winnings to his middle-man.... and he gets 7% of his losses back from the middleman (good luck collecting on that if you lose big, remember this dude needed a loan to buy christmas presents)
using -110 lines ( I won't even go into the stupidity of betting on lines that are shaded a half or full point from reputable offshore books and STILL not taking the better more advantageous line)
we will use Sammy's NBA and Football(nfl/ncaa) season long picks to see how this would look long term.
where are the Ncaab picks Sam?
ok great year in Nba so far 78-56-3 so far
not so great in football 108-117-2
combined w/l record of 186-173..... not bad, but does it make money?
186x50= 9,300 won - 10% (930) for middle man= 8370 winnings
173x55=9515 lost + .07% (666) cash back from middle man = 8849 losses
total net loss of $479
now add into this that when you make a $1,100 wager and loss you basically LOST the EQUIVALENT OF 20 STRAIGHT GAMES.
this is just hypothetical, assuming all bets were for for a flat to win 50 bucks.
It looks as though Sammy has kept his head above water in football betting for example by chasing and betting 20-50 unit games which can work short term, but long term is a recipe for disaster.
all told, if you include the bad lines like taking the Celtics -11.5 when it really is -10.5 or -11 I'd think Sammy would need to hit 57-59% to break even with this bookie
using -110 lines ( I won't even go into the stupidity of betting on lines that are shaded a half or full point from reputable offshore books and STILL not taking the better more advantageous line)
we will use Sammy's NBA and Football(nfl/ncaa) season long picks to see how this would look long term.
where are the Ncaab picks Sam?
ok great year in Nba so far 78-56-3 so far
not so great in football 108-117-2
combined w/l record of 186-173..... not bad, but does it make money?
186x50= 9,300 won - 10% (930) for middle man= 8370 winnings
173x55=9515 lost + .07% (666) cash back from middle man = 8849 losses
total net loss of $479
now add into this that when you make a $1,100 wager and loss you basically LOST the EQUIVALENT OF 20 STRAIGHT GAMES.
this is just hypothetical, assuming all bets were for for a flat to win 50 bucks.
It looks as though Sammy has kept his head above water in football betting for example by chasing and betting 20-50 unit games which can work short term, but long term is a recipe for disaster.
all told, if you include the bad lines like taking the Celtics -11.5 when it really is -10.5 or -11 I'd think Sammy would need to hit 57-59% to break even with this bookie
