NBA plays that should move by the morning

OSUCOWBOYS · 12-12-09, 02:15 AM

Do you mind sharing why you believe these games will close favorably?

jellobiafra · 12-12-09, 02:27 AM

Sure.

Looking at the board, they are all teetering on movement.

CHI opened as a +9 and has been maxed at +10.5 (imo). I think this is the best chance to catch a +EV bet right now.

DEN is really close to flipping to -9 and already has at a couple books. Again, they should be the more public play so I don't see them closing at worse than -9.

These are all just opinions. If anybody could predict how every line would close this shit would be a lot easier than it is. These are my opinions looking at the lines and the juice offered right now. I will probably be right on 3 out of 5. Or I will totally suck.

I don't see the public hitting Washington -8. If anything I see that line coming down to 7 or 7.5.

SAC opened with a premium on -7.5. It's been hit softly early. I expect the public that plays this game to be on SAC here as they should. Don't have a strong opinion on it, but again I feel like it will close at at least -8.0.

clover12346 · 12-12-09, 03:15 AM

Half of it

Shortstop · 12-12-09, 03:38 AM

NBA = Never Betting Again...

aceking · 12-12-09, 04:27 AM

I like CHI +10.5 .

FishFace5 · 12-12-09, 04:55 AM

Thanx Jello, good info. Think I'm with shortstop here though. Have always struggled with NBA, gonna stay away til football is over I think, I continue to throw away units on NBA.

MilfDriller · 12-12-09, 05:20 AM

nba is a fickle bitch. all conditions must be right

MonkeyF0cker · 12-12-09, 06:20 AM

This thread makes me... LOL.

FishFace5 · 12-12-09, 06:24 AM

MilfDriller · 12-12-09, 07:14 AM

Monkey, you are a coward just like durito.

Feel free to jump into the SBR best bet thread. I can guarantee you that if you post your picks 10 seconds before tip-off, Vegas will not come crashing down and the entire offshore industry will not evaporate b/c of your genius.

iceminers26 · 12-12-09, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by Shortstop

NBA = Never Betting Again...

The most profitable system, may give this one a try.

jellobiafra · 12-12-09, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

This thread makes me... LOL.

You're welcome.

Indiana is down to +7 at a couple places. 7.5 at a few others.

Chicago is down to 10 pretty much everywhere.

SAC has hit 8 at a few.

DEN is 9 at a couple.

Don't see what's so hilarious so far, but we'll see how it shakes out.

OSUCOWBOYS · 12-12-09, 08:40 AM

Thanks for your input.

illmatick · 12-12-09, 08:46 AM

nice job jello, looking at sactown as a possible play today, under 187.5 in the bulls game should be a solid

jellobiafra · 12-12-09, 08:49 AM

Thanks guys. These have all moved at least a half point at pretty much every book now, which is what I proposed in the title of this thread.

Of course, the important thing is not where they are now, but where they close. I don't anticipate any of them going back the other way, but like I said...it's not easy to predict these things. Well, unless you are MonkeyF0cker...then everything is easy and you can go through life looking down your nose at everyone.

OSUCOWBOYS · 12-12-09, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Taking a cue from CarpeDime the other night...

These aren't suggested plays. These are just lines that are likely to move in your favor if you book them now:

DEN -8.5 (still 8.5)
SAC -7.5 (now 7)
CHI +10.5 (now 9.5)
IND +8.0 (now 7)

We'll check these again tomorrow afternoon and see how they look.

Picked up 1.5 net points on four bets. So far.