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Reds/Pirates Analysis
Not sure if there has already been a thread posted about this, but since I am a Reds fan, and I am biased, I am going to present a case in favor of the Reds.
Cueto's been limited to 11 starts this year due to three different trips to the disabled list with a lat injury.
However, in those 11 starts, he's gone 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 51 strikeouts. (Cueto was also a beast last year, going 19-9 with a 2.78 era, and he seems back to normal.)
Two of those starts came in Pittsburgh, where he picked up a win and a no-decision. Cueto pitched 12.1 innings against the Pirates, giving up one run and striking out nine.
Here's a look at the Reds lineup Cueto is projected to face:
Pirates lineup (numbers against Cueto in 2013)
- LF Starling Marte (0-for-5, 2 K's)
- 2B Neil Walker (1-for-4, 1 BB)
- CF Andrew McCutchen (0-for-3, 1 BB, 1 K)
- 1B Justin Morneau (0 AB)
- RF Marlon Byrd (1-for-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB)
- 3B Pedro Alvarez (0-for-2, 1 K)
- C Russell Martin (0-for-2)
- SS Jordy Mercer (0 AB)
I do expect McCutchen, Morneau, and Byrd to be the difference makers if the Pirates win (but obviously the 3-5 hitters are usually going to make the difference, so that's a given.)
Francisco Liriano, who will get the ball for the Pirates, has been their best pitcher all year. Liriano is 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 163 strikeouts.
He has faced the Reds four times this year, going 0-3 with a 3.70 ERA.
Here's a look at the projected lineup Liriano will face:
Reds lineup (numbers against Liriano in 2013)
- CF Shin-Soo Choo (1-for-12, 1 BB, 3 K's)
- 2B Brandon Phillips (3-for-11, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K's)
- 1B Joey Votto (2-for-10, 2 BB, 2 K's)
- RF Jay Bruce (0-for-11, 6 K's)
- LF Ryan Ludwick (1-for-3, 1 RBI)
- 3B Todd Frazier (3-for-9, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K's)
- SS Zack Cozart (2-for-10, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K's)
- C Ryan Hanigan (0 AB)
I get that the Reds hit .241 against lefties this year, but I think their entire lineup is balanced enough to get some big hits when they count. Plus, the Reds were in the playoffs last year. The Pirates haven't made the playoffs since poster BIGDAY was straight (1992). I know that the city will be going nuts, but I think there will be more anxiety going on in the Pittsburgh dugout, and that will benefit the Reds.
The Reds went 41-41 on the road this year and Pittsburgh went 50-31 at home.
I am obviously biased, but here are the plays I like tonight...
Reds TT over 3 +105
Reds/Pirates over 6.5 +105
Reds ML +127
Reds/Pirates 1st 5 OVER 3.5 +130
***Note to SBR, it is very possible I get buried. I think the Reds will score in the first inning, get out to a 2-0 lead, pick up a few more in the 3rd or 4th, and be up 4-1 after 5. The final score will be Reds 5-3.***
Good luck if you tail me! I will make a video before I leave for the bar (and already be hammered).
GO REDS.
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Originally Posted by GimpedMaster
