1. #1
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Reds/Pirates Analysis

    Not sure if there has already been a thread posted about this, but since I am a Reds fan, and I am biased, I am going to present a case in favor of the Reds.

    Cueto's been limited to 11 starts this year due to three different trips to the disabled list with a lat injury.
    However, in those 11 starts, he's gone 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 51 strikeouts. (Cueto was also a beast last year, going 19-9 with a 2.78 era, and he seems back to normal.)


    Two of those starts came in Pittsburgh, where he picked up a win and a no-decision. Cueto pitched 12.1 innings against the Pirates, giving up one run and striking out nine.

    Here's a look at the Reds lineup Cueto is projected to face:

    Pirates lineup (numbers against Cueto in 2013)

    1. LF Starling Marte (0-for-5, 2 K's)
    2. 2B Neil Walker (1-for-4, 1 BB)
    3. CF Andrew McCutchen (0-for-3, 1 BB, 1 K)
    4. 1B Justin Morneau (0 AB)
    5. RF Marlon Byrd (1-for-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB)
    6. 3B Pedro Alvarez (0-for-2, 1 K)
    7. C Russell Martin (0-for-2)
    8. SS Jordy Mercer (0 AB)


    I do expect McCutchen, Morneau, and Byrd to be the difference makers if the Pirates win (but obviously the 3-5 hitters are usually going to make the difference, so that's a given.)

    Francisco Liriano, who will get the ball for the Pirates, has been their best pitcher all year. Liriano is 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 163 strikeouts.

    He has faced the Reds four times this year, going 0-3 with a 3.70 ERA.
    Here's a look at the projected lineup Liriano will face:

    Reds lineup (numbers against Liriano in 2013)

    1. CF Shin-Soo Choo (1-for-12, 1 BB, 3 K's)
    2. 2B Brandon Phillips (3-for-11, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K's)
    3. 1B Joey Votto (2-for-10, 2 BB, 2 K's)
    4. RF Jay Bruce (0-for-11, 6 K's)
    5. LF Ryan Ludwick (1-for-3, 1 RBI)
    6. 3B Todd Frazier (3-for-9, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K's)
    7. SS Zack Cozart (2-for-10, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K's)
    8. C Ryan Hanigan (0 AB)


    I get that the Reds hit .241 against lefties this year, but I think their entire lineup is balanced enough to get some big hits when they count. Plus, the Reds were in the playoffs last year. The Pirates haven't made the playoffs since poster BIGDAY was straight (1992). I know that the city will be going nuts, but I think there will be more anxiety going on in the Pittsburgh dugout, and that will benefit the Reds.

    The Reds went 41-41 on the road this year and Pittsburgh went 50-31 at home.

    I am obviously biased, but here are the plays I like tonight...

    Reds TT over 3 +105
    Reds/Pirates over 6.5 +105
    Reds ML +127
    Reds/Pirates 1st 5 OVER 3.5 +130

    ***Note to SBR, it is very possible I get buried. I think the Reds will score in the first inning, get out to a 2-0 lead, pick up a few more in the 3rd or 4th, and be up 4-1 after 5. The final score will be Reds 5-3.***

    Good luck if you tail me! I will make a video before I leave for the bar (and already be hammered).

    GO REDS.
    Last edited by RyanLeafOfBets; 10-01-13 at 03:44 PM.
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  2. #2
    Bcatswin
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  3. #3
    Juicy Juice
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    If you watched baseball this year, you would have seen the Pirates are a much better team than the reds.

  4. #4
    BigDeem5
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    RLOB, you better pony up the 1k pts after u lose in BTP
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  5. #5
    Sam Odom
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    Good stuff... Thanks

  6. #6
    Joe D. 416
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    All that goes out come playoff time you dummies that love posting for this type of
    info.

  7. #7
    BIGDAY
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    $30
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    donation 8/5/2020

    $20
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    SBR Bash
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  8. #8
    innovation
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    come mr tally man....tally me banana.....daylight coming and dust baker wanna go home....

  9. #9
    mwhelan11
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    Great Write-up agree with every pick. Think the Pirates are more anxious and Reds are used to playoff baseball atmosphere. Never was a big fan of either pitcher. Good luck

  10. #10
    Darkside Magick
    The Kalunga Temple of Exu-Aluvaia
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    5* - [902] Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 +175 vs Cincinnati Reds

    All Day!!

  11. #11
    Fernburn74
    2018-2019 season
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    Pirates all day long !!!!

    no score first inning.
    Pirates ml
    pirates -1.5

  12. #12
    GimpedMaster
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    Momentum.

    How many times have we seen wild card teams who were on fire at the end of the year carry it into the playoffs and burn the opposition with a vengeance?

    Reds have lost 5 in a row.

    Pirates have won 3 in a row, and 5 of their last 6.

    Both pitchers are great, no disputing that from either end. I think you have to look at the bigger picture than just pitcher/lineup matchups this year.

    History tells us playoff baseball is all about momentum, and the Pirates have it.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/23/2020


  13. #13
    thevault13
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    Quote Originally Posted by GimpedMaster View Post
    Momentum.

    How many times have we seen wild card teams who were on fire at the end of the year carry it into the playoffs and burn the opposition with a vengeance?

    Reds have lost 5 in a row.

    Pirates have won 3 in a row, and 5 of their last 6.

    Both pitchers are great, no disputing that from either end. I think you have to look at the bigger picture than just pitcher/lineup matchups this year.

    History tells us playoff baseball is all about momentum, and the Pirates have it.
    Yeeessssss!
    Because we all seen how that went for the rangers yesterday pal!

  14. #14
    GimpedMaster
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    The rays won their final game with their backs against the wall against the Jays to force that play-in game, AND the Rays are 9-2 over their last 11. Both teams had momentum.

    So yeah, your point is invalid. Again the Reds have lost 5 in a row.

    Game, set and match.
    175 pts

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  15. #15
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Super nervous... made a quick video. I blink/twitch a lot when nervous.

    Will be hammered by the time the game starts. Going out to a bar. Will try to video the atmosphere.


  16. #16
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Alcohol kicking in. Added Reds -1.5 +220 for a third of a unit.

  17. #17
    GimpedMaster
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    Momentum brah, shoulda listened to me. Yeah it's early but look how the fans rattled Cueto into dropping the ball, LOL.

    I'm all in live betting bucks I don't like callin games early but this one is playing out exactly like I forecasted (on pace for under, 2+ solo shots by bucks, runline victory Pitt.
    175 pts

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  18. #18
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    1/4 bets cashed... all at + money. Would love to see a Reds comeback.

  19. #19
    Fred The Hammer
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    Long time Reds fan and sad to see Cueto just trying to throw harder when he feels some pressure. Thats such a rookie thing to do and the Reds need a #1 starter like crazy. Latos choked in gm 5 last year too. Atleast Liriano handed the Reds a gift run when he threw Bruce a fastball after he was missing sliders by 2 feet.

  20. #20
    Wulfman14
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    feel for the reds(actually not really they have cost me a lot of units this season), but this is the pirates year i think. maybe even world series. would be a great story for the franchise.

  21. #21
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Unreal.Reds suck .still money on day, but Depressed

  22. #22
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Profitable on the night, but I hate it. Hammered over 7.5

  23. #23
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Unreal. Made a video hammered to try and go through my thoughts on my live bets, but no sound.

    Bet the Reds live in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th. Threw 340 on the over 7.5 in the top of the 7th hammered out of my mind.

    Still drunk, second best drunk capper on this site behind Rudy.


  24. #24
    RealSlimShady
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    Leafy, are you still drunk?

  25. #25
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Quote Originally Posted by RealSlimShady View Post
    Leafy, are you still drunk?
    It's likely.

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