SBR.tv’s Peter Loshak and industry vet Big Al McMordie continue their preview of Week 12 in the NFL after their successful Thanksgiving Day analysis.
San Francisco is a 3-point home fave over Jacksonville, who is coming off of 3 straight close wins over bad teams. The Niners opened up their offense a bit in the second half of last week’s game at Green Bay and enjoyed success with it, and that could be a sign of better things to come from their offense in the near future. The Niners have also had a strong D most of the year, despite giving up 30 points to the Packers last week, and Loshak sees all of this combining to point towards value on the side of SF. Al gives his endorsement, and cites a technical reason why.
Philly is a 9-point home fave over Washington, a team getting hit with the injury bug on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have a number of weapons on offense and an often-powerful blitzing D, but the Redskins’ ability to stay in games has Loshak considering a play on the Eagles on a teaser.
Cleveland scored 37 points last week, a major jump in production for their normally anemic offense. But Cincinnati will no doubt give a better effort on D than Detroit gave the Browns last week. Al liked the over the first time these two teams met this year, as well as the over in the Cleveland/Detroit game last week. But this week it’s a different situation, and he and Loshak discuss the merits or lack thereof of a play on the over 38.5.
St Louis has hosted some of the top offenses in the NFL at home this year, which has led to a run of overs on their home games. With Seattle coming to town this week, things might be a bit different. The Seahawks aren’t generating any kind of run game at all, and Loshak and Al discuss whether the total of 42.5 is a bit too high.
The Jets are a 3-point home fave over Carolina in a clash of teams that have had mirror image seasons ATS-wise. The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a hot ATS start, while the Panthers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 after a slew of ATS losses to start the year. The Panthers have a number of weaknesses that have some wondering if this might be a week to try to time an ATS cover by the Jets. The Jets being the Jets have others wondering if this might be another good week to bet against the Jets.
Indianapolis is a 3.5-point road fave at Houston despite only beating the Texans by 3 at home a few weeks ago, and Al thinks this might be the week when the undefeated Colts are dealt their first loss. The Colts are only 1-2-1 ATS over their last 4 games, which were all SU wins but also all close down to the wire. Even if the Colts stay undefeated, if this game is again close down to the wire, Houston getting a FG and a hook will loom large.
