A question for the math guys

[betplom]

I made 3 large straight wagers today - got the absolute very best line on every game and promptly went 0-3.

(This reminds me of Nicky Santoro last year during the first round of NHL playoffs, he got the absolute best number on the Habs in every game and they lost 4 straight and were eliminated.)

How much longer before I get rich from this?

[MonkeyF0cker]

That's not really how it works, betplom. You have to beat the closer and be able to quantify your edge to size your wager appropriately. You won't get rich after 3 wagers unfortunately.

[mmike032]

same here the past couple weeks...
beating the closer on most games but losing my ass.
guess I shoulda been on the other side of the closer

[betplom]

That's not really how it works, betplom. You have to beat the closer and be able to quantify your edge to size your wager appropriately. You won't get rich after 3 wagers unfortunately.

Yeah, I know Monkey, I'm just fukking around and taking a shot at Santoro.

[MonkeyF0cker]

By closer, I mean the no-vig price on an efficient market...

[tullamore]

That's not really how it works, betplom. You have to beat the closer and be able to quantify your edge to size your wager appropriately. You won't get rich after 3 wagers unfortunately.

According to Nicky all you have to do is beat the closing line.

Is Nicky wrong, please I hope not, I don't know what onner would do, it be like finding out theres no Santa all over for him

[MonkeyF0cker]

Yeah, I know Monkey, I'm just fukking around and taking a shot at Santoro.

Ahh. LOL. Get him.

[koby25]

I got one How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

[durito]

Nicky doesn't even know how to calculate a no vig line.

He also bets all sorts of inefficient derivative markets apparently, I'm not sure with what as a basis --- surely chasing steam. Which is kind of puzzling since betphoenix puts a delay on your account after the FIRST time you chase steam.

[tullamore]

Nicky doesn't even know how to calculate a no vig line.

He also bets all sorts of inefficient derivative markets apparently, I'm not sure with what as a basis --- surely chasing steam. Which is kind of puzzling since BetPhoenix puts a delay on your account after the FIRST time you chase steam.

I guess a delay is better, than not being able to log in.

[durito]

I guess a delay is better, than not being able to log in.

My day at phoenix went like this:

Log in, go to lines, bet.

3 Things would happen:

1) I'd get logged out before getting to the confirm page
2) I'd get to confirm and then get logged out during my 10 second delay
3) The wager would confirm and then I'd get logged out before doing anything else

1 and 2 happened a lot more than 3

[Irish Lumberjack]

betplom, is that Erv Weinstein?

[betplom]

betplom, is that Erv Weinstein?

You mean IRV.
Yes.

[pavyracer]

betplom,

I'm sorry for your losses. Quit overanalyzing the games with math garbage. Good cappers aren't afraid of the vig or closing number.

[20Four7]

Plommer I started a thread like this 2 weeks ago where I beat the closer by 1 to 3 points in ncaaf..... still didn't matter got killed.

[betplom]

Plommer I started a thread like this 2 weeks ago where I beat the closer by 1 to 3 points in ncaaf..... still didn't matter got killed.

In reality I went 2 for 3 on my plays, my loss was Ottawa/Jersy over 5 goals.
Had the Leafs at +130 and Flyers in regulation +124.

[halofan]

i went 0-4 today so i lost more

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky doesn't even know how to calculate a no vig line.

you kidding me?? who says i can't figure out a no vig line... my name is not durito, i have a clue..


btw, you cannot lose in the long haul by betting weak #'s.. sure you can go bad for 3 months, but when it turns and it will, you can make it all back in 9 days what you lost in 3 months. it's not a sprint, it's a marathon..


btw, love the sig, i don't remember ever saying it..

[MonkeyF0cker]

Next you'll be saying you wager at half Kelly too. LOL.

I think we might have actually taught this clown how to calc a 0-vig though, durito...