My new MLB prop bet idea - would you ever go for it?

[The HG]

I thought of this as I was writing a post in the baseball forum about how bad the Cincinnati bullpen is. This is what I wrote:

I'll tell you what would be a great kind of prop bet. If you bet your team at certain odds, but if a certain reliever makes an appearance, you automatically get different odds. Like for instance, let's say tonight you took Houston at -110, but if Benitez makes an appearance, you would get -200 or something like that. Or if you took SF, you could get certain odds, but if Benitez comes in you would get different odds automatically. Obviously I'm just making fun of Benitez here, some guys making an appearance, like Papelbon, would give you much worse odds, since he usually only comes in when Boston is about to win.

Or, you could even have some sort of blown save insurance, whereby you could take the Yanks where you would win if they win, OR if they lose but Rivera gets a blown save. That would be a funny kind of prop. a lot of people would go for it i think. We could name that kind of prop the "Benitez" line, meaning you took the team and the insurance if their closer gets a blown save.

you'd be like "yeah, i took the yanks benitez line tonight".

what do you think? it seems like it would be a fun bet, something a place like bodog could do.

[jjgold]

A fun bet but like most props there is very little action so lines would move too much with wide spreads.

[flyingillini]

If there was a line for that at Heritage I would bet it.

[Brick Tamland]

so its like a Listed play on the starting pitcher but Action on the closr?

[tacomax]

Interesting idea but not something that I would think books would go for since a lot of bets would be no action which means no money for the book.

[The HG]

No no, there would always be action on the game, same as any other game, the only thing different is that you still win if your team loses but the closer has a blown save. So obviously they would be much bigger odds, but there'd still be action on any game. So let's say you take SF, with the Benitez line. If SF wins, you win. If SF loses, but Benitez has a blown save, you win. If SF loses and Benitez doesn't have a blown save, you lose.

[Ganchrow]

No no, there would always be action on the game, same as any other game, the only thing different is that you still win if your team loses but the closer has a blown save. So obviously they would be much bigger odds, but there'd still be action on any game. So let's say you take SF, with the Benitez line. If SF wins, you win. If SF loses, but Benitez has a blown save, you win. If SF loses and Benitez doesn't have a blown save, you lose.

So really you're saying the bet would be EITHER Team A wins OR Team A's closer has a blown save, right?

[Brick Tamland]

i think its clear customr service wold have to spnd some man hours explainin it. so what your sayin is...

[tacomax]

So really you're saying the bet would be EITHER Team A wins OR Team A's closer has a blown save, right?

Ganchrow, please stop arguing with yourself.

[The HG]

Ganchrow, please stop arguing with yourself.

It's a Socratic dialogue, not solipsistic argument. These posts have complexity and depth that can be mined repeatedly, they're not meant to be "one and done".

Anyway, ok, I guess it wasn't a great idea. I just thought it would be an interesting prop to be able to buy insurance against a closer blowing a game. All the Jorge Julio/Turnbow/Lidge/Torres etc etc etc style beats, you could buy insurance against. I thought it might be an interesting prop for the entertainment bettor.

[Dark Horse]

If the idea is to avoid the bullpen I would rather have a bet for the first six innings (added to the 1st half bet of five innings). Often a starting pitcher starts to lose control in the sixth inning.

[rjt721]

GL Loshak.

[pavyracer]

Who bumped this thread? Call the police!

[rjt721]

pavy, Officer Reload gave me an infraction. I guess he has to earn that 7 bucks an hour.

[TheLock]

rjt how many units did you finish up in bases in 2008?

[SamsNCharge99]

Loshak, who is your ghost now

[ryanspeer2001]

That would be a fun bet but like most bets it would still be sharp and pay off the book well.