Peter Loshak welcomes Big Al McMordie back to SBR.tv to preview Week 11 in the NFL. Loshak and McMordie discuss a selection of games, betting lines, and SBR poster opinions.
San Francisco is a 6.5-point road dog at Green Bay, with the total at 42.5. Both teams feature quality defenses, rated by one respected statistical analysis site as the top 2 defenses in the NFL. The Niners are also off of an extended break, enjoying 9 days of rest and preparation instead of the usual 6, and San Fran has demonstrated an ability this year to keep things close on the road against top NFL teams. Loshak expresses leans toward the Niners and the Under, but Big Al is steering clear of this one, and gives some historical insight into using the handicapping factor of teams playing with extra rest.
Indianapolis Pick 'em at Baltimore is the probably the most-debated line of the week, and Loshak reads a quote posted on SBRForum.com by the poster sirmartingale summarizing the issue. To some, apparent value on the side of Indianapolis "seems too good to be true". McMordie doesn't feel the line is particularly off however, and gives a few reasons why he would in fact prefer the Ravens over the Colts, conflicting with the strong posted opinion of poster SamsNCharge99.
Jets' coach Rex Ryan cried last week, and it's not clear if that will help or hurt the Jets' chances of covering a 10.5 point spread going into New England to face the Pats, who are off of their notorious loss to Indianapolis. Pats' coach Bill Belichick has a tremendous ATS record coming off of losses in recent years, but Al is hesitant to endorse a bet on the Pats just on that, and gives a number of reasons to stay away.
Including the Pats in a 10-point teaser though has looked attractive to some, and 10-point teasers have gotten a lot of consideration in general this week with a number of favorites around 11 points. Loshak and Al discuss 10-point teasers a bit, and take note of SBR poster Sweatyguido's selection of Minnesota, Dallas and New England.
Big Al ends by giving a pick on a total that has already moved in his favor, that he sees as still having value even at the new line.
