My thoughts on a College BBall Belief

[cadillac pete]

I have read numerous times over the years that college basketball is easy to beat if you can specialize in capping a lesser known conference as compared to say the Big East. For arguements sake let's use the Ohio Valley.

The arguement is the Oddsmaker has to set the lines for so many college bball games, that the lesser known conferences fly under the radar and thereofore more mistakes in those lines my occur, thus allowing an expert who knows that conference inside and out to really clean up.

My counter arguement is this: If a majority of books clone their lines from Cris or Pinnacle, what makes one think they have an edge in those conferences? I think both shops have the resources now in place to set a proper line on everything they put on the betting menu. They have too much invested not too. If Pinnacle can but up a line on a Bulgarian summer basketball game, what makes you think their line on Jacksonville St vs Eastern Illinois is off? And I say this to prove a point.

IMO, looking at the numbers set so far early this season, that involved lesser known schools, the lines seemed pretty sharp.

Am I correct in saying the initial logic is a thing of the past?

[durito]

Look how much the lines move after they open at bookmaker. Look how small limits pinnacle has. Look at the totals market. I'd say they have no idea what they are doing this time of the year on NCAAB games.

[onthewhat]

Durito what are Bookmaker's limits on NCAAB Totals and Sides?

[AustinMeyer]

Totally agree with you. If sportsbooks cover that game, that means they have expertly calculated the odds (whether it be by themselves or they got it from somewhere that specializes in that event). If it weren't true, they'd be losing money. Obviously the aren't.

[AustinMeyer]

Can someone prove this idiot wrong. He only seems to bet on moneylines and "claims" that he can avoid upsets. He told me to bet on celtics last night (they won) but i have a feeling he is just going to end up losing sooner or later. Can ebetting for the favorite when the moneyline is only 1.05 be a good idea. I was told yesterday that was crazy by someone on this website... and i'm starting to believe it myself now. The guy's website "AndysInvestment" and i wanted to know if you guys have heard of it and/or think it is a sham?

I didnt see a better forum to ask this question, sorry if it totally is off subject. Just looking for some advice.

[AustinMeyer]

I have read numerous times over the years that college basketball is easy to beat if you can specialize in capping a lesser known conference as compared to say the Big East. For arguements sake let's use the Ohio Valley.

The arguement is the Oddsmaker has to set the lines for so many college bball games, that the lesser known conferences fly under the radar and thereofore more mistakes in those lines my occur, thus allowing an expert who knows that conference inside and out to really clean up.

My counter arguement is this: If a majority of books clone their lines from Cris or Pinnacle, what makes one think they have an edge in those conferences? I think both shops have the resources now in place to set a proper line on everything they put on the betting menu. They have too much invested not too. If Pinnacle can but up a line on a Bulgarian summer basketball game, what makes you think their line on Jacksonville St vs Eastern Illinois is off? And I say this to prove a point.

IMO, looking at the numbers set so far early this season, that involved lesser known schools, the lines seemed pretty sharp.

Am I correct in saying the initial logic is a thing of the past?

Can someone prove this idiot wrong. He only seems to bet on moneylines and "claims" that he can avoid upsets. He told me to bet on celtics last night (they won) but i have a feeling he is just going to end up losing sooner or later. Can ebetting for the favorite when the moneyline is only 1.05 be a good idea. I was told yesterday that was crazy by someone on this website... and i'm starting to believe it myself now. The guy's website "AndysInvestment" and i wanted to know if you guys have heard of it and/or think it is a sham?

I didnt see a better forum to ask this question, sorry if it totally is off subject. Just looking for some advice.

[cadillac pete]

Can someone prove this idiot wrong. He only seems to bet on moneylines and "claims" that he can avoid upsets. He told me to bet on celtics last night (they won) but i have a feeling he is just going to end up losing sooner or later. Can ebetting for the favorite when the moneyline is only 1.05 be a good idea. I was told yesterday that was crazy by someone on this website... and i'm starting to believe it myself now. The guy's website "AndysInvestment" and i wanted to know if you guys have heard of it and/or think it is a sham?

I didnt see a better forum to ask this question, sorry if it totally is off subject. Just looking for some advice.

are you on crack?? who are you talking about? I have no website, I didn't tell you to bet the Celtics ml. You lost me completly.

[Rich Boy]

The lower the opening limits, the later the lines are posted, the less books which post lines, the more the line changes from opening to close, the more juice charged on the line

All of these mean the line is beatable.

[Rich Boy]

look at NCAAB totals this year, books are soo scared they wont even post totals...

Pinny MIGHT post a total, but it will be near game-time and the limit will be around $150

[Shortstop]

The best handicapping methods are "flipping coins" and "pointing and clicking"

[docrocker]

I think your on to something

[gmcarroll33]

look at NCAAB totals this year, books are soo scared they wont even post totals...

Pinny MIGHT post a total, but it will be near game-time and the limit will be around $150

^^^^^^ This

It's irritating me to hell btw

[TPowell]

I havent been able to bet ONE ****ing total yet. The only totals are on televised games (ESPN)

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Look how much the lines move after they open at bookmaker. Look how small limits pinnacle has. Look at the totals market. I'd say they have no idea what they are doing this time of the year on NCAAB games.

They are just throwing darts. CRIS wont even put up a total on most of the games.

It is like they have raised the white flag and just given up.

[Rich Boy]

If there was more demand (ie betting action) on totals, they would take the time to handicap them...

Its not that they cant, its not worth the time.

[Jack Napier]

Books are clueless right now, Pinny is maxing out at $100 on CBB totals

[shantystar]

fixed

[floridagolfer]

I would say that, first, a game like Jacksonville State-Eastern Illinois isn't going to attract much interest, so if a line isn't very good, there's not enough action on it to impact anything very seriously. But a Duke-NC game IS going to receive more involvement, so there is a need to be more precise. I'm of the opinion that if you know what you're looking for, having an in-depth knowledge of lesser-known teams and conferences is a great handicapping tool.

[The Seer]

When is bookmaker putting up their totals?

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

never realized this stuff. The things said about totals is interesting. Makes it seem like the books are on the run, but i doubt it

[CarpeDime]

unreal

remember when pinny would post overnight totals with low juice and somewhat decent limits

was a $20 genius' dream

some of those totals would move 15, 20 points

i remember pounding a wake forest/princeton under, UVA unders

times were good then

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

they moved 15-20 points? hard to believe they exposed themselves to such huge middles

[CarpeDime]

they moved 15-20 points? hard to believe they exposed themselves to such huge middles

sure all the time

they were overnights so there were 3-figure limits, but still, ALL the time

I even remember some of the games and teams, from years ago

there was one team, a west coast team, might have been pepperdine? early in the year, totals would open at like 135, close at 160. only for a few weeks of course, but still. This was recently, around when pinny left the US

[rm18]

Probably true but it is not like lines are very accurate for big schools either early on. There is absolutely no way either Maryland or Wisconsin should of been favored today. Gonzaga was a dog and they literally should of been -300 and I said -250 before the game just from watching both teams on tv this year.

[skrtelfan]

Pinnacle has occasionally put up their own overnight lines without copying CRIS or another book, and it's been a little obvious when they do it because some of the lines really come out of left field. Before Pinnacle left the US I bet baseball pretty relgiously there overnight and typical their openers would be in line with the other books, but I remember for a couple weeks they'd be opening stuff like +200 which would move to +150 before too long, or totals of 9.5 that would get bet down to 8.5, stuff like that. The limits on these overnight lines are small enough they don't really care about getting middled, similar to how they can line games on really obscure soccer leagues because the limits are only $50.

[jjgold]

Anyone betting big ML favs is a huge square, you might find some lines off on smaller conferences from time to time but then again the limits are not as big and you cannot hurt the books. Either way you cannot beat them.

[iceminers26]

I do not agree with the philosophy that you can take advantage of poor lines in smaller conferences, there pretty good at setting the line on all conferences. The only advantage you could have is that you are in tighter with the players and know the day to day activity that the public does not attain.

[rm18]

You would have no problem getting 6 figures down on a crap game like south alabama and alcorn st. online if you did it at many books if that is what you wanted to do.

[shantystar]

gl

[MrMonkey]

gl

The guy just pops out of nowhere from Pakistan/India............. and gives us this..........?????

gl to you Shanty!!!

[BigdaddyQH]

The offshore books do not have the funding to go much higher thanthey are now. Look at all the problemswhen these books suddenly have problems paying off. They will give you an entire hit parade of song and dances, but the bottom line is that their money has dried up. The vast najority of these books are nickel an dime stores. NCAA hoops is the easiest game to rig, because it is so easy to shave points (not necessairily lose a game) and so difficult to prove it. If these nickel and dime books had big limits on hoops, they could be put out of business very easily.

[Intrinzik]

You would have no problem getting 6 figures down on a crap game like south alabama and alcorn st. online if you did it at many books if that is what you wanted to do.

You couldn't be more wrong. There is no way you are getting down that kind of money on a CBB game like that, anywhere. Even if you combined 20 books you still wouldn't have a shot.

If I'm wrong, correct me, but I doubt I am.

[rm18]

You couldn't be more wrong. There is no way you are getting down that kind of money on a CBB game like that, anywhere. Even if you combined 20 books you still wouldn't have a shot.

If I'm wrong, correct me, but I doubt I am.

It is not like I've done that but betting the max at one book is not going to change the whole market. Especially if you have a real strong play at say +16 you should be able to get down essentially any amount at +15.5 or better with books like 5 dimes and matchbook that have unlimited limits and bookmaker and greek with high limits like 5k.

The limit is 5k at the big books even for small conference games. But regardless the point is you can make a huge profit if you have an edge on these games. Maybe it is only 40k you can get down but that is still a ridiculous amount of money if you have a big edge.

[Kevy]

I have read numerous times over the years that college basketball is easy to beat if you can specialize in capping a lesser known conference as compared to say the Big East. For arguements sake let's use the Ohio Valley.

The arguement is the Oddsmaker has to set the lines for so many college bball games, that the lesser known conferences fly under the radar and thereofore more mistakes in those lines my occur, thus allowing an expert who knows that conference inside and out to really clean up.

My counter arguement is this: If a majority of books clone their lines from Cris or Pinnacle, what makes one think they have an edge in those conferences? I think both shops have the resources now in place to set a proper line on everything they put on the betting menu. They have too much invested not too. If Pinnacle can but up a line on a Bulgarian summer basketball game, what makes you think their line on Jacksonville St vs Eastern Illinois is off? And I say this to prove a point.

IMO, looking at the numbers set so far early this season, that involved lesser known schools, the lines seemed pretty sharp.

Am I correct in saying the initial logic is a thing of the past?

I cap the West Coast Conference (Portland, Gonzaga, Etc.) which might fit into your smaller conference description. And I cap the Pac-10 which would fit into your major conference description. I feel the only difference when it comes to the capping, etc. Is that wierder or perhaps shady might be a better word, things happen in the smaller conferences in college hoops.

[2TURN70]

Can someone prove this idiot wrong. He only seems to bet on moneylines and "claims" that he can avoid upsets. He told me to bet on celtics last night (they won) but i have a feeling he is just going to end up losing sooner or later. Can ebetting for the favorite when the moneyline is only 1.05 be a good idea. I was told yesterday that was crazy by someone on this website... and i'm starting to believe it myself now. The guy's website "AndysInvestment" and i wanted to know if you guys have heard of it and/or think it is a sham?

I didnt see a better forum to ask this question, sorry if it totally is off subject. Just looking for some advice.

NEVER bet into a FAV ML