Odds on a Double-Dip Recession in 2010

[Sam Odom]

Better than 50/50 The artificiality of this 'recovery' is being exposed in 4th Qt 2009 - Bad Times ahead

Hold silver coins , gold ones too but silver are better

[tblues2005]

Your right Sam I do like the idea of having some gold and silver.

[Hoja Verdes]

Absolutely. I've been calling a "W" shaped recession for a year. It's apropos that it was caused by "W" too of course.

[pavyracer]

I believe economy is cyclical since Obama became president.

[tltaylor89]

I really hope so sam that way can get more Goog on the cheap

[Sam Odom]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

[RageWizard]

odds are more like 90 / 10 in favor of a double dip. Of course you should know that since I told you way the eff back in march when this rally started that if was totally fake. I'm not in favor of gold or silver coins, unless you really know your coins. I like commodity stocks, but not right now oddly enough, because of the dollar. I would wait for a dollar to rally, and then buy back the mining stocks after I get done shorting them. I also like to short the financials in this situation. All of these plays may take some time and patience along with taking some arrows in the back for the short run, but once this market starts to fall, it will tumble too quick to get in on a short play. That's why I'm stepping in here lightly with shorts on financials, gold mining stocks, yes I said it, and retail.

[DollarBeer]

odds are more like 90 / 10 in favor of a double dip. Of course you should know that since I told you way the eff back in march when this rally started that if was totally fake. I'm not in favor of gold or silver coins, unless you really know your coins. I like commodity stocks, but not right now oddly enough, because of the dollar. I would wait for a dollar to rally, and then buy back the mining stocks after I get done shorting them. I also like to short the financials in this situation. All of these plays may take some time and patience along with taking some arrows in the back for the short run, but once this market starts to fall, it will tumble too quick to get in on a short play. That's why I'm stepping in here lightly with shorts on financials, gold mining stocks, yes I said it, and retail.

Rage:

What exactly IS shorting a stock ? Betting against it ? I'm too lazy to look it up right now. Do you have to be a pro to do it ? BTW: all of my $$$ is simply in a Fidelity account...so I don't really know much about it. Thanks...DB

[MonkeyF0cker]

The markets have been artificially inflated for nearly two decades. Why would now be any different? There's no way it gives back all of the gains. We'll probably see some retraction, but there is some stability now. I think things go mostly sideways for a while.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Rage:

What exactly IS shorting a stock ? Betting against it ? I'm too lazy to look it up right now. Do you have to be a pro to do it ? BTW: all of my $$$ is simply in a Fidelity account...so I don't really know much about it. Thanks...DB

Basically, yes. It's done with puts (options). You make money if the stock depreciates.

[tullamore]

The markets have been artificially inflated for nearly two decades. Why would now be any different? There's no way it gives back all of the gains. We'll probably see some retraction, but there is some stability now. I think things go mostly sideways for a while.

The market may trade sideways for a while, but volatility is going to increase, there are going to be some wild intra day swings.

[docrocker]

time will just keep getting worst ....

[MonkeyF0cker]

The market may trade sideways for a while, but volatility is going to increase, there are going to be some wild intra day swings.

Perhaps. Although, I know a few big traders who are curiously short vol right now.

[tltaylor89]

I think we went to far to fast