There is A Code to Winning Games ATS

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  • lyon804
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-02-09
    • 6526

    #1
    There is A Code to Winning Games ATS
    Good evening gentleman! I know many of you think I am a little delusional and I couldn't agree with you more. I post LOCKS and get a rise out of people. Guys for the record I know this does not exist. I like the entertainment value of posting my BS. They are plays I like, but I know it's not a lock. O.K. enough of the BS.


    Background on me! I have been a serious recreational sports gambler for over 11 years now. In all this time I have tried many things, you name it I have tried it. Many things have had mixed results. Many things have had negative results. I have a new approach that I have been working on in the last few weeks that has been yeilding outstanding results. Now, I am not here to tout or to sell you anything. Just trying to help because this forum has been especially helpful to me.

    It's basically this....Now, I know some of you know this already.

    Quit, handicapping Games!!!!!!! It's a waste of your time. I use to work my little nuts of doing this, but I have found something better.

    The money is in handicapping Vegas.... Not sports teams. You see what I mean is the information you need to know is in the spread. Ask yourself does the line make sense. Example tonite. We had Houston +9@ Lakers. Me naturally I like Lakers -9 here, but as I examined these teams recent history of games played at Lakers home and the way Houston had been handled on the road and the way L.A. had been handling people at home. It occured to me this line should be more like -13 or -14. The -9 looked easy and fishy. Also, I seen in the recent past L.A. had been -9 at home and had lost to Houston, but the times more recent when they were -12 or -13 they completely blew out Houston.


    Now, I know 96% of you have not read this far and the other 4% think I am full of shit, but keep in mind I have been at this game for over 11 yrs straight around the calander. I might have picked up on a thing or two?? I have nothing to gain by writing this novel or book, whatever you want to call it. I think it will be helpful if you read this.

    Bottomline: You will be more succesful handicapping point spreads rather than players,matchups,etc.... There is so much I really have to say. I think I could write a book, but I don't have the time and I am sure 99.9% dont' have the interest.
  • Enogsiwon
    Restricted User
    • 06-15-09
    • 4075

    #2
    Ill buy your book if you join THE website...
    Comment
    • MJFtheGenius
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 05-31-07
      • 7257

      #3
      good point lyon i agree
      Comment
      • lyon804
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 11-02-09
        • 6526

        #4
        Originally posted by Enogsiwon
        Ill buy your book if you join THE website...
        There is no book. If there were nobody would read it. However, I have enough information for a book. You see I am not good enough at this to quit my day job and most likely wouldn't anyways if I could. I have however gained valuable knowledge in all my time doing this. I am different than the average jo bloe public placing action. I am not saying I haven't been that person. I have been Joe Blow. I am not trying to benefit from this. Lord knows probably nobody cares. Bottomline, I wish I would have started out with the knowlege I have right now. I have evolved over time to something else other than Joe Blow. If I can help a newbie with this or even an intermediate player than I am happy. Don't want to claim I have found the secret here, but I am certainly on to some things that Sharp money already knows. You develop many theries after being in the game 11 straight years, some good, some not so good.
        Comment
        • EmpireMaker
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 06-18-09
          • 15591

          #5
          It seemed the Broncos should have been favored by 7 against the skins and they were only favored by 3 and look what happened.
          Comment
          • lyon804
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 11-02-09
            • 6526

            #6
            Originally posted by MJFtheGenius
            good point lyon i agree
            Thanks!

            I think as an experiment I might start posting games here that the lines confuse me. I don't know enough about all sports or all conferneces, leagues or whatever, but I do see things time to time that is out of kilter.

            It's as simple as this... I am not taking credit for this. I didn't event this..

            "IF IT LOOKS TO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT PROBABLY IS"

            The hardest thing to do is bet the opposite right here, but that's were the cash is.
            Comment
            • lyon804
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 11-02-09
              • 6526

              #7
              Originally posted by EmpireMaker
              It seemed the Broncos should have been favored by 7 against the skins and they were only favored by 3 and look what happened.
              Excellent point. I taged that game as well. You see the public has always heard and though Vegas wants even money and they will make the juice. This couldn't be furthur from the truth and besides it's impossible for this to happen.

              Vegas wants an imbalance of bad action!
              Comment
              • lyon804
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 11-02-09
                • 6526

                #8
                I have been trying things lately without much success, but I think I am starting to grasp a little better between just an action play and a serious bet. I am not claiming I am a pro at pciking games. Nothing, can be furthur from the truth, but I am starting to spot some real opportunities
                Comment
                • twister
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 09-09-08
                  • 405

                  #9
                  Yep, the line should be amongst the first things you should check. I'm not saying that I agree that you should completely stop handicapping games, but I definitely agree that handicapping the line is a very, very useful tool.
                  Comment
                  • lyon804
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 11-02-09
                    • 6526

                    #10
                    Originally posted by twister
                    Yep, the line should be amongst the first things you should check. I'm not saying that I agree that you should completely stop handicapping games, but I definitely agree that handicapping the line is a very, very useful tool.
                    I agree. My handicapping doesn't extend any furthur than knowing the matchup well enough to know what the line should be. Also, past lines on those teams are helpful all other things being equal. Also recent performances.
                    Comment
                    • Lost Angel
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 11-15-09
                      • 856

                      #11
                      Originally posted by lyon804
                      The money is in handicapping Vegas.... Not sports teams.
                      You speak the truth.

                      They will tell you who to play.

                      There are specific things that I look for in regards to the line, of course. I'd be interested in knowing what factors, situations that you attach value to. I registered a username just so I could say that if you'd like an exchange of ideas on this matter, PM (Private Message) me and I will give you my email.

                      Its fine to do this in a public forum, I respect you're trying to help them be successful but I personally do not have the time or inclination to invest what little time I have in searching for a particular thread then filtering through replies to see what I want. I know that you understand this.

                      I will share with you what my process is, step by step, I ain't handicapping shit.

                      Its phuccing pointless to do so. Pointless that is for anyone who is not a Masochist or one who enjoys the backdoor cover bad beat in garbage time....

                      I'd be interested in your thoughts. Success for me lies not just in reading the lines to determine a play but to spot the "stay away" games.

                      Yeah, I could just PM you but that'd be rather "forward" so send me a message if you feel like it....I think an exchange of ideas will lead to positive things for both.
                      Comment
                      • 20Four7
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-08-07
                        • 6703

                        #12
                        That's why you should watch where the money goes..... It's hard to be a contrarian but that's where the money is..... I (generally ) would rather have my money on the 20% team rather than the 80% team..... but occasionally I make the big square play.
                        Comment
                        • lyon804
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 11-02-09
                          • 6526

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Lost Angel
                          You speak the truth.

                          They will tell you who to play.

                          There are specific things that I look for in regards to the line, of course. I'd be interested in knowing what factors, situations that you attach value to. I registered a username just so I could say that if you'd like an exchange of ideas on this matter, PM (Private Message) me and I will give you my email.

                          Its fine to do this in a public forum, I respect you're trying to help them be successful but I personally do not have the time or inclination to invest what little time I have in searching for a particular thread then filtering through replies to see what I want. I know that you understand this.

                          I will share with you what my process is, step by step, I ain't handicapping shit.

                          Its phuccing pointless to do so. Pointless that is for anyone who is not a Masochist or one who enjoys the backdoor cover bad beat in garbage time....

                          I'd be interested in your thoughts. Success for me lies not just in reading the lines to determine a play but to spot the "stay away" games.

                          Yeah, I could just PM you but that'd be rather "forward" so send me a message if you feel like it....I think an exchange of ideas will lead to positive things for both.
                          I PM'ed you, but you wasn't set up to recieve
                          Comment
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