Pacquiao-Cotto betting discussion
Been looking forward to this fight for a while and I figured I'd post something sports-related for a change. Now, take my advice with a grain of salt since I doubt I'll be betting the fight. I'm a boxing fan first and I'd much rather not spoil the event by having filthy money ride on it. Lots of other stuff to lose money on.
I have to say that Pacquiao seems quite a bit underpriced right now (-272 at Pinny.) I see Pacquiao winning 8 out of every 10, half of them by bloody TKO in the later rounds and the other half by bloody UD, using his otherworldly speed and accuracy to first gain Cotto's respect... and then beat the crap out of his face. I see Cotto winning 2 in 10 by decision (either a close UD or a MD/SD where a couple of flash knockdowns - catching Pacquiao as he backs out of range - turn the scoring in his favor). I don't think that Cotto is quick enough to cause enough damage to score a (T)KO.
So far, the public seems to be underestimating the significance of Pacquiao's slaughter of Hatton in 2 - Americans in particular have always dismissed the Brit as a B-level kinda fighter, but the fact is that he's fought at the top of the 140 division for a while and he's beat some big names in Tszyu, Castilllo and Malignaggi. That humiliating loss to Pac told me that the Filipino has filled up really nicely to 140, which also means that Cotto won't enjoy much of a size advantage, if any at all.
Another bet worth considering is the draw. These mega-fights have a way of turning into more calculated scraps than initially expected. Expect both corners to try and guess the score after each round and adjust their strategy down the stretch, which might have the unfortunate effect of bringing the score closer, as the apparent leader starts taking less risk towards the end. In that sense, +3700 looks like a pretty solid lottery ticket.
So here's what we like at the current Pinny prices, in order of preference:
Pacquiao -272
Cotto by decision +1176
Over 9.5 rounds +124
Draw +3700
GL to all of you degens throwing money on this fight. Should be a great one.
I have to say that Pacquiao seems quite a bit underpriced right now (-272 at Pinny.) I see Pacquiao winning 8 out of every 10, half of them by bloody TKO in the later rounds and the other half by bloody UD, using his otherworldly speed and accuracy to first gain Cotto's respect... and then beat the crap out of his face. I see Cotto winning 2 in 10 by decision (either a close UD or a MD/SD where a couple of flash knockdowns - catching Pacquiao as he backs out of range - turn the scoring in his favor). I don't think that Cotto is quick enough to cause enough damage to score a (T)KO.
So far, the public seems to be underestimating the significance of Pacquiao's slaughter of Hatton in 2 - Americans in particular have always dismissed the Brit as a B-level kinda fighter, but the fact is that he's fought at the top of the 140 division for a while and he's beat some big names in Tszyu, Castilllo and Malignaggi. That humiliating loss to Pac told me that the Filipino has filled up really nicely to 140, which also means that Cotto won't enjoy much of a size advantage, if any at all.
Another bet worth considering is the draw. These mega-fights have a way of turning into more calculated scraps than initially expected. Expect both corners to try and guess the score after each round and adjust their strategy down the stretch, which might have the unfortunate effect of bringing the score closer, as the apparent leader starts taking less risk towards the end. In that sense, +3700 looks like a pretty solid lottery ticket.
So here's what we like at the current Pinny prices, in order of preference:
Pacquiao -272
Cotto by decision +1176
Over 9.5 rounds +124
Draw +3700
GL to all of you degens throwing money on this fight. Should be a great one.
