overcapping a game?

[SSLP]

Some games are simple sometimes so simple we over look into the game and end up betting the wrong side.

If you are on the + and you are in the know , sometimes gut instincts are the right ones.

[zubzub]

Some games are simple sometimes so simple we over look into the game and end up betting the wrong side.

If you are on the + and you are in the know , sometimes gut instincts are the right ones.

God thats so true. The challenge lies in trusting one's gut and moreso...in not "beating yourself up" second-guessing one's self when the play doesn't work out as you knew it would.

Like that MNF game just passed...how does a team rushing for 3.6 yards a carry come in and immediately and throughout just shred a defense that is allowing just 92.3 yards per game on the ground? And how does Carolina lose to Buffalo at Carolina then go to AZ and own a team that just beat NYG IN NEW YAWK???!!??

Wierd shit happens. The ball is shaped funny, like an egg.

Go with your gut and don't blame yourself when the play doesn't cash. Thats what leads to overcapping.

[Mikail]

I do this all the time. Sometimes a good line is just that a GOOD LINE. I always refer to that saying "if it looks to good to be true, it probably is" and overthink a game and talk myself out of a winner.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Somebody??? Anybody???

Yeah, if by overcapping you mean capping too long. After 13 hours in the book, certain team names will start to look pretty to me, and some fonts start to stand up off the page, etc.

[TWEETS]

If I don't have a lean in the first 5 minutes of looking at a game, I mark it off and go on.

[zubzub]

I do this all the time. Sometimes a good line is just that a GOOD LINE. I always refer to that saying "if it looks to good to be true, it probably is" and overthink a game and talk myself out of a winner.

I got the wierdest shit goin' on seems forever now where with NFL if I just FADE lines that jump out at me as "holy shit, I'm taking that ALL DAY!!" I swear over 70% winners but everytime I play it it works for like 2 weeks then I can't spot the plays no more cuz my brain races, I get anxious and also I try to see love plays in too many lines.

Greed babies......

I swear handicappingz really a motherhumper. Degenerate Gamblers deserve more respect this shit just ain't easy.

[zubzub]

13 hours in the book, certain team names will start to look pretty to me, and some fonts start to stand up off the page, etc.

You're back to exceeding your 3 White Russian limit again, aren't you?

[jjgold]

The games come down to a guess, you can study all you want and does not give you a better chance to win.

[AMBlai01]

Flip a coin and you will still lose money but probably lose less money than if you idiots try to cap the game for real. Vegas knows more than us....thats is why it is paved in Gold...remember that always.

[SSLP]

good insight

[emoney]

You clowns that think you can "cap" a game are fooling yourselves and waisting your time. Do you really think you are going to come up with some stat that vegas didn't think of when they set the line to begin with? Unless you are somehow aware of a fixed game, you might as well just flip a coin and spend your time doing something productive.

[zubzub]

ITT: pessimists

[SSLP]

You clowns that think you can "cap" a game are fooling yourselves and waisting your time. Do you really think you are going to come up with some stat that vegas didn't think of when they set the line to begin with? Unless you are somehow aware of a fixed game, you might as well just flip a coin and spend your time doing something productive.

emoney i think u need to get laid

[Shark79]

word.

[emoney]

There is no question that I do need to get laid. However, I am not sure how that is relevant to this discussion.

[Mikail]

Capping games is useful, but does not nessesarily get you the win. Sometimes ya gotta go with that "gut" instinct!
"

[jaypavs]

Get 5 buddies who don't bet(or do, probably doesn't matter), give them the lines on Sundays games. Every game they all like go the opposite way.

[suicidekings]

The real value in handicapping games is not in picking winners. The real benefit comes from identifying strong and weak sides of the lines, spreads, and totals from the books. I have stats models for the four major sports that I can feed matchups into and have it spit out lines, spreads, and totals for each game which I then compare to the lines at the books. This part takes very little time, and usually produces a few leans a day. From those, I'll typically see a couple right away that stand out as situations I like with favourable lines.

I don't have my bets broken down in this fashion, but I suspect if you compared my winning percentage in those initial games to the W% in the games I think about more, the first group would be much more successful overall.

[tullamore]

Bet the numbers, not the teams.

If they listed the teams as A and B, instead of Celtics, Cavs, most people would pay more attention to the numbers.

[shantystar]

not agree with you thread starter

[btraband]

i like the theory of taking a break when on a bad streak and a little more emphasis on units played when "hot". Streaky