SBR’s Justin7 and Peter Loshak preview Week 9 in college football, and reveal the 3 picks that Justin’s model likes this week.
Five out of the 20 games involving Top 25 teams this week opened with spreads of 30 or more, and Loshak and Justin discuss how to think about those games. Rushing defense of the underdog can be a good indicator of a bad team’s ability to stay within a huge spread against a top team.
No. 7 Iowa is a team that has frustrated sharp money this season, as a lot of it has come in on the opposite side of the Hawkeyes recently, and lost. Iowa has a knack for pulling out wins and covers in competitive games this year, but they have also failed to cover the 2 games this year where they were a big home favorite, as they are this week hosting Indiana. With a few high-profile injuries to boot, there has been a lot of chatter in the betting world in support of Indiana getting 17.5 here.
There are two big season-defining showdowns involving ranked teams pitted against each other this week. No. 4 USC is a 3.5-point road fave over No. 10 Oregon in the big Pac-10 and No. 3 Texas is a 9-point road fave over No. 13 Oklahoma St. in the Big 12. Justin sees the USC/Oregon spread as about right, and the Texas/Oklahoma St. spread as a bit too big.
Justin’s and Loshak’s discussion about games with huge spreads gets revisited as Justin reveals his model’s 3 picks for this week, all of which involve games with huge spreads.
....pretty much. 