Math Guys: Odds The Prick Can't Luck Into 4-0?

Nicky Santoro · 10-26-09, 09:38 AM

93.75%

Nicky Santoro · 10-26-09, 09:39 AM

i re read your question.. were you saying what are the odds he don't go 4-0, OR what are the odds he never goes 4-0..

if it is that he dont' go 4-0 in his next 4 games,then it's 93.75%

poker_dummy101 · 10-26-09, 09:40 AM

hes saying 1 week out of all but im not sure how many weeks are in all and not going to go look it up

Deuce · 10-26-09, 09:42 AM

In other words 6.25% OTW

jayc88 · 10-26-09, 09:43 AM

his chances of going 4-0 one week are

0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5

6.25 %

durito · 10-26-09, 09:43 AM

reading comprehension

Nicky Santoro · 10-26-09, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by jayc88

his chances of going 4-0 one week are

0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5

6.25 %

but he said what are odds of NOT going 4-0. .so it's 93.75%

6.25% he does
93.75% he doesn't

jayc88 · 10-26-09, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

but he said what are odds of NOT going 4-0. .so it's 93.75% 6.25% he does 93.75% he doesn't

durito · 10-26-09, 09:46 AM

He said what are the odds he goes 4-0 ONCE

As in once all season....

poker_dummy101 · 10-26-09, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

hes saying 1 week out of all but im not sure how many weeks are in all and not going to go look it up

Why are you still guessing 93.75

Nicky Santoro · 10-26-09, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by durito

He said what are the odds he goes 4-0 ONCE

As in once all season....

how can we know if i dont even follow this contest. am i supposed to know how many chances he got.. is it 4? is it 122?..

depends how many shots he had? it could be 6.25% or it could be 87%..

MonkeyF0cker · 10-26-09, 09:48 AM

Assuming 17 weeks of BTP, it's simply...

(0.9375)^17 = 33.38%

onthewhat · 10-26-09, 09:49 AM

Right durito

Can you run the numbers?

onthewhat · 10-26-09, 09:51 AM

Thanks Monkey

poker_dummy101 · 10-26-09, 09:52 AM

Hed be better off fading himself weekly with even juice lines.

MonkeyF0cker · 10-26-09, 09:54 AM

Well, what I posted was that he didn't go 4-0 once. I thought that's what he asked...

If you wanted to find the odds that he went 4-0 only once, you'd have to calculate every permutation and add them together. It'd be a little too time consuming to be worthwhile.

hhsilver · 10-26-09, 10:53 AM

8 weeks left .... Probability that he never goes 4-0 in those 8 weeks :

(.9375)^8 = .597