Why are NHL lines so unreliable?

Domestic · 10-15-09, 05:20 AM

I think a lot of it is due to the game itself being such a game of inches in front of goal and the fact that the nature of the sport is very "end to end" that anything can happen and does more often than a lot of other sports. Also the fact that home crowds can't really influence offical's decisions as much as some other sports.

KingCrimson21 · 10-15-09, 05:46 AM

I don`t understand the question...unreliable? If the lines were reliable the books would have to pay out more. I am pretty sure that their goal is to take in. Not pay out.

Squirrel · 10-15-09, 05:49 AM

Don't forget its also very early in the season so nobody realy knows what to expect, teams are still getting priced up on last years performances. Rather than complain that the lines are off and all the big favourites are getting turned over, use it to your advantage

digimedia · 10-15-09, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by Squirrel

Don't forget its also very early in the season so nobody realy knows what to expect, teams are still getting priced up on last years performances. Rather than complain that the lines are off and all the big favourites are getting turned over, use it to your advantage

It's not a complaint, I just hoped to learn more about why the results can be so varying and use this to my advantage.

Squirrel · 10-15-09, 06:09 AM

Originally posted by digimedia

It's not a complaint, I just hoped to learn more about why the results can be so varying and use this to my advantage.

Yeah sorry my response was rather harsh and didnt mean to sound anything like it did lol. I think the lines aren't as sharp in hockey because there is no one single factor/person that can decide a game.

In baseball a starting pitcher can win the game all by himself even if his offense sucks nuts, in pigskin a QB can win the game all by himself even if his defense is poor or his O-line has an off day.

With Hockey I find there are very few predictive stats to use to try and figure out how a game will pan out, as someone said its all end to end and a game of inches in front of the net.

oiler · 10-15-09, 06:13 AM

Originally posted by digimedia

Honest question from someone non-US (so I know shit about NHL).

How come the lines mean so little in this game? I mean I see heavy favorites (-170 to -200) getting beaten on a daily basis. Comparing this to the lines in MLB I have found that mostly anything over -170 is a pretty safe bet (not 100% of course). So how come I see NHL teams with -200 get pounded 6-2 ?

Thanks in advance!

u hit it right on the head,QUOTE'i know shit about hockey' need to hit the dogs early in the season cause once they figure out the lines,they all will be right on target,so if your a dog player make your money now cause it wont last

WhatAboutMeBitch · 10-15-09, 06:41 AM

I don't really understand hockey too much

KingCrimson21 · 10-15-09, 06:59 AM

Originally posted by Squirrel

Don't forget its also very early in the season so nobody realy knows what to expect, teams are still getting priced up on last years performances. Rather than complain that the lines are off and all the big favourites are getting turned over, use it to your advantage

I could not have said it any better. Fukkin` Squirrrel is THE Man!!

jayc88 · 10-15-09, 07:14 AM

unreliable ???
-170 hockey favs lose as often as mlb -170 favs,

but you have a lot more hockey games with these kind of odds than mlb games, so its natural that there are more huge dogs winning in hockey.

tullamore · 10-15-09, 07:17 AM

A hot goalie can really steal a game in hockey, making the big dogs attractive. also styles of play are a big factor.

durito · 10-15-09, 08:13 AM

If this were true (and it's not)

Why don't you just bet every +170 dog in hockey and retire with the profits.

floridagolfer · 10-15-09, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by jayc88

unreliable ???
-170 hockey favs lose as often as mlb -170 favs,

but you have a lot more hockey games with these kind of odds than mlb games, so its natural that there are more huge dogs winning in hockey.

Since you brought it up, what kind of won-loss percentages do -170 favorites generate over the course of a season (baseball or hockey)? I think people would be very interested to know what the actual numbers are. Anyone?

Mudcat · 10-15-09, 08:31 AM

Originally posted by digimedia

Comparing this to the lines in MLB I have found that mostly anything over -170 is a pretty safe bet (not 100% of course).

That sure don't sound right. Lemme check my Spreadsheets on this.

I haven't crunched the numbers on MLB 2009 yet but for the data I collected for MLB 2007-2008, betting every favorite of -180 or more produced -32.03 units (based on Pinnacle openers).

Mudcat · 10-15-09, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Since you brought it up, what kind of won-loss percentages do -170 favorites generate over the course of a season (baseball or hockey)? I think people would be very interested to know what the actual numbers are. Anyone?

Okay I'll bite. I just talked a bit about MLB. For NHL 2008-2009, favorites of -170 or more produced

HOME FAVES produced -48.6 units based on a sample of 300

AWAY FAVES produced -4.83 units based on a sample of 60

G's pks · 10-15-09, 09:10 AM

If you feel clueless...pick another sport...if the feeling continues...stop betting sports ...