Justin7 wasn’t available for a live conversation with Peter Loshak for Week 7 in college football, but he still provided opinions on numerous betting lines for upcoming games. Loshak also used several posts by SBRforum.com posters to summarize the key factors involved in big games this weekend.
Failure to score TDs in the red zone is a problem that afflicts teams at all levels, and sometimes it is a result of variance, other time a result of something more fundamental. Two Top 25 teams that had red zone problems last week, No. 2 Alabama and No. 20 Oklahoma, illustrate this point, with things looking more promising in this area for the Crimson Tide than for the Sooners due to an important statistical indicator.
Oklahoma has gone from being the top TD-converting red zone team in the country in 2008 to having problems in the red zone week-in and week-out in 2009, and the change is largely due to personnel changes on the offensive line. Last year the Sooners featured an imposing OL laden with seniors, and this year the absence of those seniors has brought the Sooners’ rushing game back down to earth. They will face a stiff challenge this week against No. 3 Texas, one of the top run defenses in the country. Sharp money has come in on Texas already at -3, and Justin7 puts the fair line at -6.
No. 6 USC is a 10-point road favorite at No. 25 Notre Dame, but the talent disparity between the two teams is less stark this year than it has been in recent matchups. USC features their usual awesome D, but this year Notre Dame will be able to counter with a quality offense led by QB Jimmy Claussen which should be able to give them a fighting chance. Sharp money has come in on the Fighting Irish at +10.5, while the lively discussions on SBRforum.com seem split on this one. Despite Notre Dame fielding a live offense and getting double digits at home, many are still skittish about betting against USC. Supporting that is Justin7’s computer line of USC -12.5.
Wisconsin lost decisively to No. 7 Ohio St last week, but with the Buckeyes getting 2 defensive TDs and a kickoff return TD, the final score may be illusory. The Badgers played Ohio St competitively, and now come home to face undefeated but possibly overrated No. 11 Iowa as a small favorite. The line had early movement in favor of Wisconsin, and Loshak liked them a lot at -1.5, and still likes them at their current line of -2.5, bolstered by Justin7’s computer line of -5.
No. 4 Virginia Tech’s road showdown at No. 19 Georgia Tech may be a defining game for the Hokies, as they will face a stiff test trying to stop the Yellow Jackets’ vaunted triple-option offense. But VT has played impressively against quality competition so far this year, and if they pull out a win here, they will be in great position for a 1-loss regular season, and may prove that they really do belong in the Top 5 this year. Justin7 sets this line exactly where the market has it, Virginia Tech -3, while two of SBR’s best-known college football handicappers, Pags11 and Pavyracer, are at odds on this one, with Pags11 posting a play of GT +3, and Pavyracer on VT -2.5.
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