SBR’s Justin7 debuts his new and improved NFL model this week, and shares its inaugural top picks with Peter Loshak and SBR. He and Loshak also discuss a handful of upcoming Week 5 NFL games, with input from LT Profits.
Atlanta is coming off of their bye week going to San Francisco as a 2.5-point road dog. The Niners will still be missing starting RB Frank Gore for this game, while the Falcons will be getting back speed running back Jerious Norwood, who is returning from a concussion, and should be 100%. The Niners play a conservative brand of football predicated on defense and ball control, leading some, including Loshak and LT Profits, to lean towards using Atlanta in a teaser. But Justin warns against that, pointing out that the money line associated with Atlanta’s line of 2.5 is headed in the opposite direction from what you want to see on a basic strategy teaser, and also reveals that his model rates the Niners as a 3.5 or better favorite for this game.
Carolina is also coming off of their bye week, still looking for their first win of the year. They have looked bad so far, but some see this as a good spot for Carolina to get off the schneid, and see value with the Panthers as only a 3.5-point favorite at home. Justin however thinks Carolina is close to being as bad as they have looked, and much prefers Washington plus the points here, revealing the Skins to be one of his favorite plays of the week. LT Profits also likes Washington a lot.
Denver is once again a home dog to a publicly favored team, New England, and Justin, LT, and even Dr. Bob see that as unjustified and like Denver getting points. The Pats do appear to have yet another strong team this year, but the market may not yet be fully caught up with how much improved the Broncos are. LT Profits points out that Denver’s new head coach, Josh McDaniels, was New England’s offensive coordinator the last few years, and may well be uniquely aware of how to prepare for the Pats.
Justin’s other top play of the week is Indianapolis -3.5, but it’s not because he loves to bet on Peyton Manning no matter what the line is. Justin sees Tennessee as being a much worse team than last year, with their decline not yet fully appreciated by the market.
