NCAAF Week 6: Justin7 and Peter Loshak discuss

[SBRPicks]

SBR moderator Justin7 is graciously sharing with Peter Loshak and SBR his stat model’s recommended plays in college football, and he got off to a great start in Week 5 last week, going 3-0. Loshak and Justin discussed various upcoming Week 6 Top 25 games of interest.

Florida State is having a very unpredictable year, sometimes looking great as they did in their road win at BYU, but more often looking undisciplined as they have in various losses and sluggish recent performances. Justin7’s stat model reflects that, as it does indicate a preference for #22 Georgia Tech at +2.5, but with too much volatility involved to justify a bet. It does agree with Loshak’s lean to the over 54.5.

There are two home dogs that caught Loshak’s eye, with the lines possibly reflecting overreactions to the unexpected early-season success of the respective road faves involved. #24 Missouri is a 3-point home dog to #21 Nebraska. Nebraska has been winning and putting up good defensive numbers, but Justin points out that Nebraska’s success has come against a very weak slate of opponents. Unranked Arkansas is also a 3-point home dog to #17 Auburn, a surprising team that is generating a lot of buzz right now.

Air Force may have big trouble putting up points against #10 TCU’s elite defense, while #2 Texas, at home off of a bye week facing Colorado’s weak D, has a big offensive day looming, and team totals may be the way to go in those games.

#12 Iowa is looking solid, while Michigan is looking vulnerable, but Iowa doesn’t quite inspire blowout confidence, and as an 8-point favorite, a tease might be called for, even though teasers are generally less recommended in college than in the NFL. A similar situation might be present in the marquee game of the week, #1 Florida at #4 LSU.

Justin’s computer model spit out only one pick this week, which he reveals to Loshak at the end of their chat.

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Articles/NCAAF/12320/key-contests-loom-college-football-s-week-6-schedule.aspx

[Dank_Fire]

You should re name title of video to Justin7 and Peter discuss Peter's plays

[Fishhead]

Two observations/questions...........

1. Does Peter purposely pronounce the names of TEBOW and BOWDEN incorrectly or is he in the dark here?

2. Secondly, JUSTIN is 100% correct on the equity in teasing IOWA, however, following Iowa as closely and as intently as I do, this game is a complete toss-up in my opinion. Iowa CB Pratter is expected to play(sore ribs), but if he somehow cannot go in the majority of the plays, MICH is going to definetly take advantage of those backing him up and Iowa just doesn't have quality depth at this position(Pratter was actually 2nd string before Bernsteen went down in preseaon). Couple this with the fact that Iowa will play ultra-conservatively in this game and allow Michigan to hang around if they are indeed leading, will allow Michigan to be in the game late, as this Iowa coaching staff is notorious for this.

I absolutely love Michigan +8 or better in this spot and feel it is a much better play than taking IOWA on the ML or teasing them.

Good luck to all,
FH

[Santo]

I gather nobody's convinced Justin to publish the results of his computer model in the sports forums ;o)

[HoulihansTX]

Hey Peter, how about asking Justin, "What are some of your strong plays for the weekend?"

It seems like you want Justin to justify your picks in order to heighten your confidence in the plays.

Although, I still thank both of you for taking time to make a video for us. I love the insight, even though Peter uses the time attempting to get his picks validated.

[chipper13101]

Fully agree with Houlihans TX comment. Many thanks to you both for making the videos. No offence but Peter, you talk too much about your picks. Let's just hear what Justin likes and why. Quit the validation stuff.