Question for Ganchrow, about using a promo.

[Doug]

Heritage is offering a cancellation at halftime tonight, if you so desire. Call in, and cancel your bet if you're losing, $500 limit.

Great deal, pretty obvious to take either side for the max, cancel if losing, keep it, and/or hedge/middle if winning.

these are the choices. No ML allowed.

MTS +7 -107
Troy -7 -107

Now this is hypothetical, and I need Ganchrow's answer.

If you could use the ML:

MTS +225
Troy -285

What is the best play, and why ? Assume you have no opinion on the game, whatsoever, you just want to use this promo, that is +EV.

Would MTS +225 be the best option ?

I would use Troy -7, but have a lean that way. I want an answer based purely on the lines, and you can use the ML for my example.

[Chi_archie]

don't think ganch is around

do you think they are gonna let you play both sides?

[tacomax]

Now this is hypothetical, and I need Ganchrow's answer.

Good luck.

[fiveteamer]

Do they have to be losing? What if they are up by 3 but look like horseshit.

[InTheHole]

[Doug]

don't think ganch is around

do you think they are gonna let you play both sides?

one side only

[Doug]

Do they have to be losing? What if they are up by 3 but look like horseshit.

you can cancel no matter what the score, but middling is probably better.... if the dog were up 3, fav up 3 would be about the expected score.

[Fishhead]

Good luck everyone!!!

[Doug]

This is an expansion of a FH thread started at RX today. RX has lost her top math guys lately.

The prospect of ML was brought up, then determined to be not an option.

However it got me thinking about the best way to go, with ML allowed.

I can't figure that one out, and it bugs me.

Think like an actuary/accountant/ mathematician sort on this. You know the math and stats and lines, but nothing about football itself, you don't even know a football isn't round.

One of these lines should be best, given the halftime cancel option.

Dog + the help/ fav - the points have to be pretty equal in expectation.

Now are either dog ML, or Fav ML, much worse/better than the spread.... and WHY !

I suppose the answer can change a lot given a tiny spread ( 2.5), and a huge spread ( 22.5), so lets answer this for a 7 spread, and the given lines.

[onthewhat]

Do not hold your breath waiting on Ganch to respond

[Doug]

Why, isn't he still here ?

This is right up his alley.

[Doug]

open to anybody that can make an argument logically as to why you'd use the fav or dog ML here ( if it were allowed), with these unusual terms.

Are they all fairly equal in expectation ?

It seems to me the fav ML might be inferior, if even allowed..... but perhaps not ? Maybe if you could risk enough to win $500, it would be best. Risk $500 on ML chalk ( max) changes it.

So, I need to define it.

I'll call it $500 (max) risk to win $175 (-285), betting the ML chalk here, so we are using valid comparisons.

[fiveteamer]

Doug you have already made it why are you asking this question?

[Doug]

5: I'm not currently funded at Heritage, but these twice a month offerings entice me to catch the next one. I'd have taken the chalk, Troy -7 -107.

The question nobody can give a decent answer to, is:

MTS +225
Troy -285

I'm stumped myself ( if the option even existed)

There has to be an answer to this, in pure mathematical expectation.

Point donations accepted, I want your 5 cents, guys !

[pavyracer]

Why, isn't he still here ?

This is right up his alley.

SBR John is trying to get a hold of him to start posting again.

[blackbart]

its a good question i was wondering how to best use this promo, not ml since they are not allowed

[InTheHole]

SBR John is trying to get a hold of him to start posting again.

Then talk about him being fired/or quitting is nonsense...I remember John saying this last night