Beat The Prick Contest...

[eidolon]

If you faded the public on all the NCAA games, you would already be up around 30 units! Haha

I thought ppl here would do better at NCAA than NFL.

[Shortstop]

We are all "the public"

I never understood this argument.

[stevek173]

kind of funny though

[THEGREAT30]

I understand it to some degree. Like if I don't have a good feel for a game just fade the public but I think it is a tactic that can only be used in moderation or part of a winning equation, it is far from the main or deciding variable.

[hhsilver]

yes, I noticed that so far. But, there will be weeks when the opposite will be true. And when that happens many more will beat the prick and the prizes will be even less.

[konck]

We are all "the public"

I never understood this argument.

Truer words were never spoken

[blackbart]

L7

[Bill Dozer]

I understand it to some degree. Like if I don't have a good feel for a game just fade the public but I think it is a tactic that can only be used in moderation or part of a winning equation, it is far from the main or deciding variable.

yes, I noticed that so far. But, there will be weeks when the opposite will be true. And when that happens many more will beat the prick and the prizes will be even less.

Bookmakers inflate totals and lines quite a bit for the public. It's easier for the public to cheer on an over in a Suns/Pistons game even though Pistons influence pace of game more than Phoenix. But even then, they don't usually do it more than the vig is worth. There are some great opportunities on the most popular games.

Minnesota Vikings might be a good one to keep an eye on this week. The hype is loud right now and BMs may rather go up slowly than get hammered on the opener by big betting sharps.

[eidolon]

I look at the "public", as people who don't look at anything but what is shoved down their throats on ESPN or their local team being on the news.
Almost all my friends are sports fanatics; but they don't know what they are talking about when it comes to how big a team will win/lose by. These people are the squares, ie "public".

You could make an argument that the public is all the avid bettors.
Probably about 20% of the money bet on games is from complete squares, 75% on avid bettors, and 1-5% on sharps. Definitely a lot of avid bettors here of course, but are there any sharps at this forum? Would they post their plays? They really should post their plays once they get their money down on the game...because if they truly had a running winning record, people would follow them, and then if enough people put money down on those games, they would be able to middle at a guarantee profit if the lines move enough: win-win for them.

[BeatTheJerk]

How can you fade something that doesn't surface until game time?