We've all seen them, those extremely large college football pointspreads. Perhaps USC is favored by 36 over some joke of a team. Or Florida is favored by 29 over Florida A&M. These games jump off the page right away just for the sheer size of the spread.
And yeah they almost make you laugh because they're such a joke, but what about actually betting on these games where spreads can on occasion make 40 points or more?
Should you try to get down on a game with a spread this big?
The short response is no, but there are a number of reasons why. First of all, when you're talking about spreads of this amount that means you're also talking about some Truly awful teams. And we've all been there, but no one likes to have to root in a very bad team. One more sack allowed, an added turnover, an additional missed tackle, it's like the movie 'Groundhog Day,' error after blunder.
An additional trouble is there's no real precedent to track. How can you conclude if the team getting pounded will keep on working, playing solid to the last gun goes off, and trying to get that score that makes the number?
Now with the BCS involved, several schools will demonstrate no mercy because they're trying to acquire those all- powerful points in the polls. You would assume that would increase even more later on in the season, right? Well even that idea isn't a lock based on past performances.
And that's my closing and perhaps most vital point. The statistical facts
doesn't validate taking either side in these lopsided games. Looking at the data we could only get one occasion where teams covered with a winning percentage over 53%. With a break-even point of 52.7%, that's hardly adequate to inspire confidence.
My recommendation: stay away from the Giant NCAA Pointspread!
All the best,
Rich Allen - aka Sports Betting Professor
And yeah they almost make you laugh because they're such a joke, but what about actually betting on these games where spreads can on occasion make 40 points or more?
Should you try to get down on a game with a spread this big?
The short response is no, but there are a number of reasons why. First of all, when you're talking about spreads of this amount that means you're also talking about some Truly awful teams. And we've all been there, but no one likes to have to root in a very bad team. One more sack allowed, an added turnover, an additional missed tackle, it's like the movie 'Groundhog Day,' error after blunder.
An additional trouble is there's no real precedent to track. How can you conclude if the team getting pounded will keep on working, playing solid to the last gun goes off, and trying to get that score that makes the number?
Now with the BCS involved, several schools will demonstrate no mercy because they're trying to acquire those all- powerful points in the polls. You would assume that would increase even more later on in the season, right? Well even that idea isn't a lock based on past performances.
And that's my closing and perhaps most vital point. The statistical facts
doesn't validate taking either side in these lopsided games. Looking at the data we could only get one occasion where teams covered with a winning percentage over 53%. With a break-even point of 52.7%, that's hardly adequate to inspire confidence.
My recommendation: stay away from the Giant NCAA Pointspread!
All the best,
Rich Allen - aka Sports Betting Professor