Why do some people have all the luck?

[VegasDave]

My mother just texted me that she hit on a damn video keno machine, 7 of 7 for $1771.

This isn't the first time, either. She's hit 5 of 5, 6 of 6, and 7 of 7 before... she's up literally thousands of dollars on this game in her life time.

It is one of the absolute worst games to play, the house edge is through the roof.

I hate to believe in luck as a rational-minded person, but how is it that I lose in a 2% house edge game like blackjack 9 out of every 10 times I play it (using optimal strategy) while others can consistently hit on stupid shit like video keno?

[pat venditto]

Vegas dave thats just a random act of life. All about the odds pal. If she sat there and continued to play for 3 months straight for 10 hours a day who do you think would be ahead?

Same thing with advantage gambling. If you make +ev bets with the proper staking over the long haul you will suceed it's a proven fact.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Dave you still cant beat Blackjack?

all you gotta do is compute this formula in your head in about 2 seconds and you can increase your edge in blackjack about 3.4928%

The law of total variance can be proved using the law of total expectation: First,
from the definition of variance. Then we apply the law of total expectation by conditioning on the random variable Y:
Now we rewrite the conditional second moment of X in terms of its variance and first moment:
Since expectation of a sum is the sum of expectations, we can now regroup the terms:
Finally, we recognize the terms in parentheses as the variance of the conditional expectation E[X|Y]:


this will tell you the Nth value of each card pertaining to the available cards left in the deck vs the seen cards in the deck

[topgame85]

[L2Gunz]

untiltheendoftime...thats pretty interesting!!!

Oh yeah why did SammyStiffler.com think ya name was unit of a dime or something

[daggerkobe]

She's probably down overall tho and not telling you.

I've hit $1300, $1000, $600, $500 on the slots but I'm way more down than I've won. I just play for fun.

[Shortstop]

Sorry guys, I couldn't help it....

[StraitShooter]

When you were little..do you wonder where that xtra pair of shoes were when you needed them?

I assure you..Granny aint up as much as you would like to make your self believe

[StraitShooter]

daggerkobe

If thats Plunkett as your avatar did you know thats the great Falcon turned Eagle def end Claude Humphrey in the back ground?

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

untiltheendoftime...thats pretty interesting!!!

Oh yeah why did SammyStiffler.com think ya name was unit of a dime or something

Most people can never get my name right i dont think its to hard either

Unit of the dime has to be the funniest one tho, most say what you said with 2 e's. When its really 1 E, not in a literal sense but the way my handle is spelled out yes 1 E. But how in the zueses buthole do you see Unit Of The Dime. The comes before Of mr smart one.

[reno cool]

Dave you still cant beat Blackjack?

all you gotta do is compute this formula in your head in about 2 seconds and you can increase your edge in blackjack about 3.4928%

The law of total variance can be proved using the law of total expectation: First,
from the definition of variance. Then we apply the law of total expectation by conditioning on the random variable Y:
Now we rewrite the conditional second moment of X in terms of its variance and first moment:
Since expectation of a sum is the sum of expectations, we can now regroup the terms:
Finally, we recognize the terms in parentheses as the variance of the conditional expectation E[X|Y]:


this will tell you the Nth value of each card pertaining to the available cards left in the deck vs the seen cards in the deck

your not still standing on that 16 against a seven are you?

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

your not still standing on that 16 against a seven are you?

Nah but i been reading a lot of books and trying to master counting cards, ive got better but i haven't mastered it yet. I won about 13,000 playing blackjack over 4 months then i lost about 8 of it back over 25 or so sessions, and havent played for a while, wont until i felt i was better suited for it mathematically.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

as far as your 16 vs 7 given the count in the deck i Gage my decision, its idiotic to always assume the dealer has a 10 in the hole, in any scenario its about a 54-46 hit stand on that number, with a better knowledge of whats in the deck it makes the decisions easier thats what Ive been looking up on. Nothing that im trying to become a pro at but if i can increase my edge a little more than the status quo its better long term. With that being said im more focused on getting a real job.

[reno cool]

Vegas dave thats just a random act of life. All about the odds pal. If she sat there and continued to play for 3 months straight for 10 hours a day who do you think would be ahead?

Same thing with advantage gambling. If you make +ev bets with the proper staking over the long haul you will suceed it's a proven fact.

not bad, one of these days Patty will be a pro.

Keno is a highly volatile game. If you want to have a better chance of winning at a neg exp game you want high volatility. So in some way what grandma is doing is more rational than the guy betting bj with a small neg edge. However, I suspect Daggerkobe is right.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

not bad, one of these days Patty will be a pro.

Keno is a highly volatile game. If you want to have a better chance of winning at a neg exp game you want high volatility. So in some way what grandma is doing is more rational than the guy betting bj with a small neg edge. However, I suspect Daggerkobe is right.

Guy continues to chase tho. You only chase when the money means something to you. My gambling bankroll is disposable income, a few losses hurt. But they never sting. Keep your head up patty and bet with confidence knowing your not waiting for that next paycheck to pay your past due bills.

[reno cool]

as far as your 16 vs 7 given the count in the deck i Gage my decision, its idiotic to always assume the dealer has a 10 in the hole, in any scenario its about a 54-46 hit stand on that number, with a better knowledge of whats in the deck it makes the decisions easier thats what Ive been looking up on. Nothing that im trying to become a pro at but if i can increase my edge a little more than the status quo its better long term. With that being said im more focused on getting a real job.

alright, I'm glad to see our young posters learning something.
btw, It doesn't have much to do with assuming the dealer has a 10, as much as the overall probabilities of all the different outcomes. The count will almost never tell you to stand here.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

alright, I'm glad to see our young posters learning something.
btw, It doesn't have much to do with assuming the dealer has a 10, as much as the overall probabilities of all the different outcomes. The count will almost never tell you to stand here.

very true but given the fact that the dealer dosent hold a 10 underneath the probabilities of the dealer busting are higher than you catching a non bust card.


how you been? havent seen you around much lately?

[reno cool]

oh, I been around. Just drove back from Vegas today, and am currently at the fabulous Isle of Capri in Black Hawk Colorado.

[onthewhat]

Now we know why Dave dropped out of college

Mom lost Dave's gambling fund at Keno