Line movement disagrees, but I'm thinking this NFL play is a stone-cold lock

[durito]

The game the linesmen got wrong: Patriots vs. Jets

Game Time: Friday, September 18, 2009 12:00 AM ET
By: CrazyLou

Linesmen are imperfect people living in an imperfect world. Good luck convincing a linesman they are hanging soft numbers, though. That is akin to a stake through the heart of any old school industry professional.

The good news for insecure linesmen is that their job is simplified for them. They can follow the lead of big boys like Pinnacle, Olympic, CRIS, and adjust their numbers accordingly.

If I were a linesman, I would take a stand on this ballgame that pits the New England Patriots (1-0) vs. the N.Y. Jets (1-0), the divisional rivalry game that has all the SBRforum handicapping experts chattering like teenage women at a formal.

Why the line dropped from -6.5 to -3.5
The line between Sunday afternoon’s match up of the Patriots and Jets opened at New England -6.5 at Pinnacle Sports. Within a mere matter of hours the line plummeted to -3.5. The “sharps” have spoken. Those guys with six 22" monitors and poor hygiene that have been up for 36 hours straight have spoken.

So shouldn't your title be "the game the sharps got wrong". I mean the "linesmen" did open at 6.5 after all.

I'd also like to point out that it's entirely possible for +6.5 -110 and -3.5 -110 to both be +ev bets. Line can and do move too far. The job of the oddsmakers is to throw out a number and let the market take it where it may.

[Pensinger1]

Line movement is irrelevant. What you need to be looking is how teams played the first week. What have you seen from Patriots team on first game that makes you think they can win let alone cover the spread? All I saw is a team struggling in defense and that was before they lost their best defensive player for year and only won because Buffalo had a fumble. This is a very tough game for Patriots which if they win will be in a shootout.

Line movements are irrelevant?

I guess I've just been getting lucky since I've never capped a game in my life.

[reno cool]

Think most "sharps" are aware of the mistake of overestimating the significance of 1 bad game. There must be something else involved. I did pick NE for beat the prick though.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The Patriots simply aren't that good. Their defense has holes and they look to be completely one-sided on offense now. The O-line looked bad against the Bills and their run game was completely ineffective.

[brooks85]

NE didn't even attempt a run game, they had to play from behind. Only 22 rushing attempts and maroney/taylor were moving the ball somewhat. The TOP tells the true story of the game.
Samething with Houston last week, only 12 rushes.

[losturmarbles]

The Patriots simply aren't that good. Their defense has holes and they look to be completely one-sided on offense now. The O-line looked bad against the Bills and their run game was completely ineffective.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The time of possession shows the true story against a team that ran a no-huddle the entire game. Uhh. Ok. So many squares...

[brooks85]

I agree 100% it's a square pick, that doesn't make it the wrong pick. Jets played a bad team and won. NE played bad and won, end of story.

[brooks85]

I shouldn't say houston is a bad team, mediocre. Their D stinks and schuab was just throwing bad all day.

[losturmarbles]

the parity in the afc east has leveled out. outside of having a rookie qb, the jets are probably the best team in the division.

if sanchez can play up to his potential, the jets are a dark horse contender for the afc.

[pavyracer]

Patriots won but didn't cover the spread. This is huge and everyone seems to be discounting it.

[losturmarbles]

I agree 100% it's a square pick, that doesn't make it the wrong pick. Jets played a bad team and won. NE played bad and won, end of story.

jets held them to 183 yards and 0 offensive points

[brooks85]

Yes, but schuab had a hurt ankle which was noticeable and his throws were off high/low, he was 18/33 which means he had a bad day. I had money on houston and was watching the game close. The game was over in the 1H.

Ill believe jets are a contender when they get into a battle and come out with a win, possibly sunday.

[NEP Dynasty]

The Patriots simply aren't that good. Their defense has holes and they look to be completely one-sided on offense now. The O-line looked bad against the Bills and their run game was completely ineffective.

Their defense allowed 17 points playing almost the whole game without their best player. Not that bad. Those 2 roughing the passer penalties both completely changed the game. Without those, they probably allow 10 points. They will be fine.

[BGboothA]

Quick quiz - During Brady's miraculous 2007 undefeated (til the superbowl) season, what is the only team to hold Brady to less than 50% completion percentage....if you answered Rex Ryan's Baltimore Ravens you are correct.

Remember, the Ravens and KYLE BOLLER would have beaten the Patriots in week 13, if it wasn't for a phantom 4 down defensive holding call that kept Brady on the field in the fourth quarter. In fact Brady went a very unimpressive 18-38 in that game while throwing an interception. While he did get 250 yards and two touchdowns to go with it, it was by far his least impressive game of the season.

Given the history of Rex Ryan against New England, New Englands struggles Monday night against a horrible Buffalo team, New Englands defense on the downward slope. This game is a toss up @ -3 and is far from 'easy money' in my book.

GL though

[MonkeyF0cker]

Their defense allowed 17 points playing almost the whole game without their best player. Not that bad. Those 2 roughing the passer penalties both completely changed the game. Without those, they probably allow 10 points. They will be fine.

Against a team that fired its offensive coordinator and changed its entire offensive philosophy two weeks before the season started...

[Rich Boy]

Coaching will win this game, Pats always abuse rookie QB's, always.

Pats are the best team in the NFL, betting against the best team in the NFL is bad for your health.

[pokernut9999]

The team with the fewest turnovers wins about 90% of the time , not any of the other crap here means diddly.

[Redchevy]

I loved NE last week laying the points and took the dive. This week, I believe we'll see Brady and Co. playing from the start like it's the 2 minute warning!!! Belichick will not take this Team to NY and get out coached or out played by some loud mouth!! Look for NE to score early and often, that takes the pressure off a young defense. Then, he can tighten the vise!!! NE rolls here!!!

[lakerboy]

good job lou with this thread

[SBR Lou]

The team with the fewest turnovers wins about 90% of the time , not any of the other crap here means diddly.

I'm sure there will be a few turnover's in this game, but they can cancel each other out as easily as make a difference in this game.

[Housemoney]

I am on NE too. Nice write up Lou.

Good luck.

[Italia_NYC]

I'm taking the 4 points and rooting for the Mexican! This should be a good one.

[big0mar]

14 of the final 16 plays run by NE in week 1 were out of the shotgun...

[jmp]

[PureGuava]

another one bites the dust

[Robust]

tough loss Lou..

but the line movement is a powerful thing, not to be ignored so easily..

you'll get the next one..

Robust

[pavyracer]

[daggerkobe]

GL Crazyl........ dont let the haterz get u down.



P.s.......ALL IN JETS ML

JinxL has sunk more people than the iceberg that sank the Titantic.

Jets ML

[pico]

crazylou should work for brandon lang

[SBR Lou]

JinxL has sunk more people than the iceberg that sank the Titantic. Jets ML

Excellent call Jets backers, the defense was just too tough over 4 quarters and New England's offense never capitalized on their opportunities. Sanchez was 3 of 5 for 15 yds in the 1st half and NY did not have a first down until late in the 2nd quarter, with 3 trips to the red zone NE came away with only field goals. Brady missed some easy passes, including one which was an easy touchdown, and just never seemed comfortable.

The offensive play calling with the constant short passes was not effective, I think losing OC Josh McDaniels hurt pretty badly as far as the creativity on the offensive side of the ball.

[daggerkobe]

crazylou should work for brandon lang

At least Lang won his 40 Dimer on the Ravens.

[SBR Lou]

At least Lang won his 40 Dimer on the Ravens.

Sanchez played really well once they took the handcuffs off him in the second half.

[daggerkobe]

Excellent call Jets backers, the defense was just too tough over 4 quarters and New England's offense never capitalized on their opportunities. Sanchez was 3 of 5 for 15 yds in the 1st half and NY did not have a first down until late in the 2nd quarter, with 3 trips to the red zone NE came away with only field goals. Brady missed some easy passes, including one which was an easy touchdown, and just never seemed comfortable.

The offensive play calling with the constant short passes was not effective, I think losing OC Josh McDaniels hurt pretty badly as far as the creativity on the offensive side of the ball.

If u were going for classy then u should have stopped at "Excellent call Jets backers."

the rest is ur typical Crazyl BS, overflowing with excuse after excuse.