(NFL 2024) Contrarian plays - Week 08

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3744554-nfl-2024-contrarian-plays-week-07-a.html

Week 07: 0-1 ATS
ytd: 8-6 ATS (.571)

Thanks to anyone contributing in here. Have seen some good opinions/info.

1) List a side (or Total) you're playing.

2) Quote a current line.

3) In 2 or 3 sentences, briefly state your case for Fading a team and Backing the opponent based on Public Perception.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Shout-out to poster Tomatero. He has posted some great info in recent weeks.

Of course, the trend is that the Public has killed it the L2 weeks. Road Favs were 9-0 ATS two weeks ago. Road Favs have been killing it of late.

Is there any pullback this week? Please share your Contrarian thoughts and plays in this thread. Thanks!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 274 TAMPA BAY Bucs +2.5

...Fading Atlanta. I don't see how this # can be right.
...Health seems to be driving the #. TBAY WR injuries, so the Fantasy FB players won't touch the Bucs b/c of the unknown.
...Stat to ponder. Atl QB Cousins has rushed for zero FD this season. Zero, you think his mobility is an issue?
...Bucs off a TV loss. They played well early and then threw a bad INT into the end-zone as they were trying to go up 10.
...Revenge game for TBAY. Dog off a loss with revenge. Bucs were un-lucky to lose in ATL, as the Falcons needed a perfect runout to win.

Don't really see how this can be anything > pk-em. Playing against trends:
1) Receding Home Field Advantage in NFL.
2) Recent Road Fav ATS run.
3) Buc injury report that will give bettors cause to hesitate.

[SundanceKid]

We saw Thursday night with the Rams what 2 stud WRs can do for a team. Without Evans and Godwin it is going to be struggle city for the Bucs. Expect quite a few dropped balls from the receivers. Tampa can still win, but Godwin and Evans have been THE tandem for 5+ years now going all the way back to Winston's 30/30 season

[ChuckyTheGoat]

We saw Thursday night with the Rams what 2 stud WRs can do for a team. Without Evans and Godwin it is going to be struggle city for the Bucs. Expect quite a few dropped balls from the receivers. Tampa can still win, but Godwin and Evans have been THE tandem for 5+ years now going all the way back to Winston's 30/30 season

Respect your opinion, Sundance. And that opinion certainly ties out to market opinion.

My vantage point really ties out to so many Fantasy FB players betting now. They see the WR injuries and knee-jerk the other way. Would they do the same thing with Def Tackles?

My view is that NFL player displacement is normally < what people think. I'm on the Bucs, so we'll find out soon enough. Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. A few more opinions on these NFL lines:

1) Lines just aren't as big as they used to be.
...Oddsmaker knows that people look for dog-value.
...There is sometimes an artificial cap on the # they'll post.

2) The bottom-end teams are seemingly even more miserable this year.
...Carolina, for example, might be all-time bad.
...Young to start at QB today. How bad can it get?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 08: 0-1 ATS

...Props to anyone who bet ATL.
...I will say that I feel like I got value for $$.
...Mayfield passing stats were pretty good. Two T/Os did in the Bucs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looking fwd to Tomatero's book report:

*How many DET/DEN parlays were out there? +260, ez like Sunday morning.

[Tomatero]

Week 9 Contrarian picks
Bucs+9 mahomes no good like big fav Covering
Colts +6 los vikingos se empiezan a desinflar.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 9 Contrarian picks
Bucs+9 mahomes no good like big fav Covering
Colts +6 los vikingos se empiezan a desinflar.

Thanks, Toma! GL on the plays.

[klemopixx]

TNF
Texans +2
How in the hell are the Jets favored? I know that missing two starting WR's is bad but Aaron Rodgers is awful. I feel like the Jets D has given up. Low scoring game? I'll take the two.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

TNF
Texans +2
How in the hell are the Jets favored? I know that missing two starting WR's is bad but Aaron Rodgers is awful. I feel like the Jets D has given up. Low scoring game? I'll take the two.

Salud, klemo. I'll mark you down for Hou +2. Good Luck.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 9 Contrarian picks
Bucs+9 mahomes no good like big fav Covering
Colts +6 los vikingos se empiezan a desinflar.

GL, Toma. Will sum up the YTD after these plays go final. Rooting 2-0 for you.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One more note from this thread: *Appreciate all the book reports from Toma?

We can try to track the public bias. Nice to hear reports straight from the books.

Two amazing weeks this year. Favs were crushing it.

Who knows if anti-Public even works anymore. The public bias certainly isn't as strong as it used to be. Even the mid-level player is now seeking out value-dogs.

[Told You So!]

Raiders +8 No one expecting them to cover

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Raiders +8 No one expecting them to cover

Putting you down. Thx and GL.

Three SUN/MON plays in action (from this thread): TBay/Indy/Raid.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ytd = 9-10 ATS
...Going south on these.
...NFL market is so tricky this year. Shorter lines. Hard to say that anti-public works this year.

[johnnyvegas13]

Public has been crushing it

that will end after this week tho

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Public has been crushing it

that will end after this week tho

Good note, John. Yes, that's the key. Public pockets deep NOW.

When is the right time to step in? COULD BE this week.

[johnnyvegas13]

Public doing well again so far

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Public doing well again so far

Hi, John. Thx for the note. There's some truth to this:

*I'm convinced that the oddsmaker WON'T let sharps pile in on Value Dogs.
...The Fav lines are artificially trimmed a point or two.

I'm not SURE that the Public will clear a profit this week. But the lines are tricky.

*What about the Eagles? Couldn't Phi be -8.5 against a backup qb?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Very tricky. If anyone is cleaning up on NFL this season, my compliments.