NCAA FB 2024-25 System Picks Week 9

**Aunty808** · 10-24-24, 05:07 PM

Thurs Games

There's conflicting trends with the Geo So/Old Dom-2 game.

Geo Southern falls into the 5-0 Fade the Dog group.
Contest consensus is 62% on Geo Southern, another reason to FADE.
(Group 3- 60%-100% Public Dog Contest picks in Week 7 went 5-1-0 ATS. Week 8- No Picks fell into this group.)

System says wrong team favored, and five Experts picked them to win S/U.

I took Old Dom-2 in my survivor contest since I lost my streak yesterday.
Yesterday I took the Liberty game to go UNDER and dang if that MOOSE didn't show up at the end of the game. Just 1:49 left and they had to score and go over the total......ugh.

GL2A

Will post all of Week 9 plays tomorrow.

**Aunty808** · 10-25-24, 04:30 PM

Friday Games

Friday Games

Game/Vegas Total/Stat Total
Lou -7' @ BC (53') (54.4)
Group 3 - (60%-100% Public Contest Dogs)
Teams in this group in Week 7 went 5-1-0 ATS. No teams qualified in Week 8.
BC qualifies with a 62%.
BC also falls into another category: There are nine programs that hired new coaches in mid January or later that are 16-35 ATS.
Those nine teams: UCLA, Michigan, Washington, Boston College, Arizona, Georgia State, Buffalo, South Alabama, and San Jose State.

Boise St-4 @ UNLV (65') (69)

All I can say about this game is if Hawaii could stay within the number and kept the game UNDER the total, UNLV, who is a much better team than Hawaii, should be able to keep up with Boise. Granted the spread was 21', but Boise should've run all over Hawaii in a blowout win, not a 28-7 win. I'll take my chances with the homedog. The line just moved to 4 as I was typing this.

Rutger @ USC-14 (56') (54.7)
USC should win, but will they cover? I dunno. Riley's on the hot seat, better fire up his team!!

Gonna start typing up entire System Plays now.

GL2a

**Aunty808** · 10-25-24, 10:51 PM

Week 9 Plays

Week 9
Best Bets
So Miss @ James Madison-25
Fla St @ Mia Fla-21

5-0 Fade the Dogs
Mizz @ Ala-13'
WF-3 @ Stanford
Okl St @ Baylor-6
Ill @ Oregon-21'
Okl @ Miss-20'
Geo Tech @ Virg Tech-10
Buff @ Ohio-6
Ark-7 @ Miss St
TTech @ TCU-6'
Oreg St @ Calif-10
LSU @ TAM-2'
WVirg @ Ariz-3' ( System says wrong team favored, 5 Experts picking WVirg to win S/U. Same scenario as the Geo So/Old Dom game and Geo So lost.)

Note:
BYU +2 @ UCF
BYU opened as a 2 point favorite and is now a 2 point dog. When I see a team open as an Underdog, then turn favorite, I usually fade that team. But what I don't understand is how can BYU get points when their contest consensus is 80%(all players) and 93%(team experts 13-1)?
The first scenario says fade UCF and play BYU. Then we have BYU in the Group 3 (60%-100%) Public Contest Dog Consensus. That says we are supposed to fade that dog.
I'll be watching that game.....can't choose a side.

5-0 Play ON the Fav
Mary @ Minn-4
Emich-3 @ Akron
Kent St @ WMich-17'
BGreen @ Toledo-2'
Tulane-7' @ NTex
Cinn @ Col-5'
Utah-3' @ Hou
Utah St-2 @ Wyo ( Utah St opened as a 2 point dog, now 2 point fav, Fade Utah St)
Kan @ Kan St -10
==================
O/U Games Play OVER/Fade the Dog
Both teams have negative SRS, Fav On The Road
EMich-3 @ Akron (52)
UTSA-8 @ Tulsa (54)
Nev-1 @ Hawaii (45)

Other games- 2 teams with negative SRS, but Fav NOT ON THE ROAD.
These games we just Fade the Dogs. I'll list the O/U for reference.
Buff @ Ohio -6' (45)
Geo St @ App St-7' (58)
Temple @ ECar-7 (49)
NMex @ Col St -7 (65)
Utah St -2 @ Wyo (57)
Troy @ Ark St-7' (50)
SJST @ Fresno St -5 (55)

Public Contest Dog Consensus - Fade The Dog
I won't list the actual %'s, just group them together. If their %'s change outside the numbers, I'll move them to the proper group.
Group 1 51%-54%
Week 7 1-3-0 ATS
Week 8 1-1-0 ATS
YTD 2-4-0 ATS

Temple @ ECar-7
CMich @ Mia Oh-12
TTech @ TCU-6;
WF-3 @ Stanford

Group 2 55%-59%
Week 7 2-0-2 ATS
Week 8 2-5-0 ATS
YTD 4-5-2 ATS

Tulane-7' @ NTex
Geo St @ App St -7'
Tex -18' @ Vandy
SJST @ Fresno St -5

Group 3 60%-100%
Week 7 5-1-0 ATS
Week 8 No Plays
YTD 5-1-0 ATS

Lou -7' @ BC 62% WL 31-27 (Stupid Turnovers cost Lou the cover, not to mention a couple of no calls on BC (especially the last obvious PI ) oh well...
LSU @ TAM -2'
Oreg St @ Calif -10
Geo TEch @ Virg Tech -10
Ill @ Oreg-21'
ND-13' @ Navy
BYU @ UCF -2' 80%
Utah St -2 @ Wyo 80%

FYI: If I have conflicting lines on some of the games, that's because when I go back to the contest, sometimes the lines move. So just find the best lines when you bet your games. I will officially grade the above plays based on the contest closing lines or the lines I used to enter the contest.

GL2A

**Aunty808** · 10-26-24, 10:38 AM

Final Update

Final Update
Public Contest Dog Consensus - Fade The Dog
I won't list the actual %'s, just group them together. If their %'s change outside the numbers, I'll move them to the proper group (in BOLD).
Using contest line when I entered this morning.
Group 1 51%-54%
Week 7 1-3-0 ATS
Week 8 1-1-0 ATS

WF-3 @ Stanford (54%)
Syr @ Pitt-6 (54%) Thurs 41-13 WW

Group 2 55%-59%
Week 7 2-0-2 ATS
Week 8 2-5-0 ATS

Temple @ ECar-7' (55%) Group 1)
TTech @ TCU-6' (55%) (Group 1)
Geo St @ App St -7' (59%)
Tex -17 @ Vandy (59%)
SJST @ Fresno St -4' (57%)
CMich @ Mia Oh-10' (Group 1) (58%)

Group 3 60%-100%
Week 7 5-1-0 ATS
Week 8 No Plays

Tulane-7' @ NTex (Group 2) 60%
LSU @ TAM -1 (60%)
Oreg St @ Calif -10 (64%)
Geo TEch @ Virg Tech -11 (63%)
Ill @ Oreg-21' (71%)
ND-14 @ Navy (70%)
BYU @ UCF -2' (63%)
Utah St-2' @ Wyo (70%)

Lou -7' @ BC (62%) Friday WL 31-27 (Stupid Turnovers cost Lou the cover, not to mention a couple of no calls on BC (especially the last obvious PI ) oh well...
========================
Nev-1 @ Hawaii (45)
O/U Games Play OVER/Fade the Dog
Both teams have negative SRS, Fav On The Road

Hawaii opened as dog, turned fav -2, now we fade Hawaii. O/U also dropped to 44'. No longer a Negative Road Fav OVER play.

GL2A

**Aunty808** · 10-26-24, 02:53 PM

7 Stat Analysis

Looking over my numbers, this group caught my attention. Another site I frequent uses their own algorithms/methods to rank their teams. I did the whole schedule and separated the teams by the amount of stats in their favor. Looks like there's more winners than losers so I'll post it here.

7-0
Texas- 17
Kansas St-10
James Mad -24
Oregon-22 7-0 1st
Liberty-26 LL ( KennSt 27-24)

6-1
Ohio St-26 WL 21-17 Nebraska
VTech-11 WW 21-6 Geo Tech
Ohio -5 WW 47-16 Buff
Tulane-7' WW 45-37 NTex (1/2point win!)
Ark-7 51-25 4th
Mia Oh-10' 16-7 Half
Temple+7 21-27 Half
Aub+1
UConn-6'
La Tech-6 WL 14-10 UTEP
Jax St -20' WW 42-20 MTST
Louis-7' WL 31-27 BC
Boise St-4 WW 29-24

5-2
Old Dom-2 WW 47-19
USC-14 WW 42-20
Miss-19 26-14 4th
Calif-10'
So Ala-7
WVirg+5'
Wash St-14'
Nev-2
Troy+7'
Penn-6
TAM-1
SMU-11
Fresno-6
BGreen+1'
Iowa-16
EMich-2'
No Ill-13

NOTE:
ND -14 WW 51-14
I was going to post that I had to jump off the Navy bandwagon after I saw ND defensive stats at this site. I didn't post cause I didn't I didn't want to jinx my play.
Maybe I'll jump back on the bandwagon next week.....
What I did learn from watching the game is if a team hasn't had a turnover since forever, maybe they are due. The Universe alway balances things out. And with the general consensus on the message boards saying Navy was going to kick a$$....well you know how that goes!

Sorry to late for the next set of games.....I type too slow.

GL2A

**Aunty808** · 10-27-24, 02:06 AM

Results- 7 Stat Analysis

Results 7 Stat Analysis
This is the first week I did the entire schedule and although it takes up alot of my time to gather the data, I must say it's well worth the effort. We still have a few weeks left in this season so I'll prioritize this group and get it posted early next week.

You'd think this group would produce the most winners since all the stats are in their favor. Apparently not so...
7-0 S/U 5-1-0 - ATS 2-4-0
Texas- 17 WL 27-24 Vandy
Kansas St-10 WL 29-27 Kansas
James Mad -24 WL 32-15 So Miss
Oregon-22 WW 38-9 Illinois
Liberty-26 LL 24-27 Kenn St

Alabama-14' WW 34-0 Mizzo
6-1 S/U 12-2-0 - ATS 9-5-0
Ohio St-26 WL 21-17 Nebraska
VTech-11 WW 21-6 GeoTech
Ohio -5 WW 47-16 Buffalo
Tulane-7' WW 45-37 NTexas
Ark-7 WW 41-25 Miss St
Mia Oh-10' WW 46-7 CMich
Temple+7 LL 34-56 ECarolina
Aub+1 WW 24-10 Kentucky
UTSA-9' LL 45-46 Tulsa
UConn-6' WW 17-10 Rice
La Tech-6 WL 14-10 UTEP
Jax St -20' WW 42-20 MTST
Louis-7' WL 31-27 BC
Boise St-4 WW 29-24 UTEP

5-2 S/U 14-3-0 - ATS 12-5-0 (1 pending)
Old Dom-2 WW 47-19 Geo So
USC-14 WW 42-20 Rutgers
Miss-19 WL 26-14 Oklahoma
Calif-10' WW 44-7 Oreg St
So Ala-7 WW 46-17 ULMon
WVirg+5' WW 31-26 Ariz
Wash St-14' WL 29-26 SDST
Nev-2 Hawaii13-31 4thQ
Troy+7' LW 31-34 Ark St
Penn St-6 WW 28-13 Wisc
TAM-1 WW 38-23 LSU
SMU-11 WL 28-27 Duke
Fresno-6 WW 33-10 SJST
BGreen+1' WW 41-26 Toledo
Iowa-16 WW 40-14 Northwestrn
EMich-2' LL 21-25 Akron
No Ill-13 LL 23-25 Ball St

EDIT: Added Alabama to 7-0 group.

**Aunty808** · 10-27-24, 03:00 AM

7 Stat Analysis (4-3 Group)

I didn't have time this morning to list the last group as I really wanted to post the other groups before the next set of games started.
I just went through the schedule and found all of the 4-3 teams.

4-3 S/U 15-1-0 - ATS 10-4-2

Sam Hou-4' WL 10-7 FIU
Pitt-6 WW 41-13 Syracuse
NC+3 WW 41-14 Virg
Memphis-17' WL 33-28 Charlotte
Indy-6 WW 31-17 Wash
App St -7 WP 33-26 Geo St
TCU-6 WL 35-34 TTech
Col St-7 WW 17-6 NMex
Mia Fl-21 WW 34-14 Fla St
Utah St-1' WW 27-25 Wyo
Mich-3 WW 24-17 Mich St
UCF-2 LL 24-37 BYU
Minn-4 WW 48-23 Maryland
WF-3 WP 27-24 Stanford
Baylor-6' WW 38-28 Okl St
WMich -17' WW 52-21 Kent St

**morri1962** · 10-27-24, 06:20 AM

thanks for all you do

Originally posted by Aunty808

I didn't have time this morning to list the last group as I really wanted to post the other groups before the next set of games started.
I just went through the schedule and found all of the 4-3 teams.

4-3 S/U 15-1-0 - ATS 10-4-2

Sam Hou-4' WL 10-7 FIU
Pitt-6 WW 41-13 Syracuse
NC+3 WW 41-14 Virg
Memphis-17' WL 33-28 Charlotte
Indy-6 WW 31-17 Wash
App St -7 WP 33-26 Geo St
TCU-6 WL 35-34 TTech
Col St-7 WW 17-6 NMex
Mia Fl-21 WW 34-14 Fla St
Utah St-1' WW 27-25 Wyo
Mich-3 WW 24-17 Mich St
UCF-2 LL 24-37 BYU
Minn-4 WW 48-23 Maryland
WF-3 WP 27-24 Stanford
Baylor-6' WW 38-28 Okl St
WMich -17' WW 52-21 Kent St

**Aunty808** · 10-27-24, 01:36 PM

Results/Summary Week 9

@morri1962
Thanks for stopping by and you're welcome! I hope you won your bets!!
GL2U

Best Bets
Miami Fla won and James Madison won S/U but did not cover the spread.

5-0 Fade the Dog
S/U 11-1 ATS 8-3-1
The only Dog that won M/L was West Virginia
The three Dogs that covered the spread were Oklahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia. Stanford Pushed. Alabama, Baylor, Virginia Tech, Ohio, Arkansas, California, Texas A&M and Oregon (Dillon @808!!) took care of business and gave us some spending money!!
The BYU/UCF game was a head scratcher game, trends went both ways. I didn't count this game in the W/L but BYU won outright.

5-0 Play ON the Fav
S/U 8-3-0 ATS 6-4-1
Eastern Michigan, Toledo and Utah all lost S/U and ATS.
Kansas St won but didn't cover the spread and Utah St won but Pushed.
Minnesota, Western Michigan, Indiana, Tulane, Michigan and Colorado all cashed our tickets.

O/U Games
1-1
Eastern Michigan and Akron failed to go over the total but USTA and Tulsa flew way over the total, scoring a total of 91 points.
Nevada and Hawaii fell out of this group but the game went over as well.

Public Contest Dogs (FADE These Dogs)
Group 1 (52%-54%)
Week 7 1-3-0 ATS
Week 8 1-1-0 ATS
Week 9 2-1-1 ATS
Pitt and East Carolina both won for us. TCU won but didn't cover and WF won and Pushed.

Group 2 (55%-59%)
Week 7 2-0-2 ATS
Week 8 2-5-0 ATS
Week 9 2-2-0 ATS
Miami Ohio and Fresno made us some $$$. Texas and App State didn't.

Group 3 (60%-100%)
Week 7 5-1-0 ATS
Week 8 No Plays
Week 9 6-1-1 ATS
Don't you just love this group? I do. It just keeps giving us winners! (No jinx, please!)
Winners were ND, Virginia Tech, Tulane, California, Texas A&M and Oregon (Dillion @808!!).
Louisville won but due to the turnovers, nada on the cover. Utah St won and Pushed.

Again, the BYU/UCF game was in this group, but I did not include it in the W/L count due to it giving me a headache trying to figure out where the trap was.

On to Week 10.....let's find those winners!
GL2A