(NFL) Week 07 plays

[Madison]

Mad, str was spot-on. He called the injury. It was coming.

I've referenced this angle in some of my points. Any QB has a given HAZARD RATE when they start a game. How likely are they to get knocked out of a game they start?

Richardson IND might be 20%. Daniels WASH might be 10%, until he proves otherwise.

The thick QBs might be less glamorous. But availability is one hell of a skill.

Agreed. Back in the day when I was a more serious gambler, I got burned when Rodgers went down early in a game. You keep learning, and one thing I pointed out earlier this year was the lack of real star quality traditional QB's today. Understanding who the Backup QB is can make or break your bet. In a big way success in today's game is quite often determined by the quality of the interior Off and Def lines. IE Goff. Lot of QB's would look a lot better with that OL.

I'm a big survivor player and generally have the whole season mapped out by opening day. One thing you can't control and predict, is that this is a game attrition and health and what looks good in SEPT can often be trash later on.

Best of luck Bud.

[jackpot269]

Hi, Jack. My confidence is pretty shot (at the moment). GL on your plays.

......

[jackpot269]

GL Today GTG.

ATL.........-8....(-108)
DET.......+2.5..(-108)
LVR........+7....(+100)
KC........+2.......(-108)
PHILY..-3.......(-108)

Thanks for your insight. Always good info!!

4-1 +2.92 Best NFL day I've had in a while

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4-1 +2.92 Best NFL day I've had in a while

Props on a great day. That must have felt good. I wonder what that feels like.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agreed. Back in the day when I was a more serious gambler, I got burned when Rodgers went down early in a game. You keep learning, and one thing I pointed out earlier this year was the lack of real star quality traditional QB's today. Understanding who the Backup QB is can make or break your bet. In a big way success in today's game is quite often determined by the quality of the interior Off and Def lines. IE Goff. Lot of QB's would look a lot better with that OL.

I'm a big survivor player and generally have the whole season mapped out by opening day. One thing you can't control and predict, is that this is a game attrition and health and what looks good in SEPT can often be trash later on.

Best of luck Bud.

Hey, Mad. Props, my man.

I've thought about studying that Hazard Rate stat more. Surely, a team will lose ATS > 65% of the time when the starting QB gets knocked out. Teams talk about practice reps being so important.

When a backup gets elevated to starter during the week, he is getting reps. And the OC is game-planning to his strengths. The mid-game switch to the cold QB is very tough.

[Tomatero]

Ravens win and cover, the final leg of a lot of parlays/moneyline parlays in NFL Week 7 odds. So the public cashes big.

After a Week 6 in which the public drilled the books.


“It’s the worst two-week run I’ve seen. That’s all there really is to say.”


— @ZachALucas, director of retail sports, TwinSpires Sportsbook

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ravens win and cover, the final leg of a lot of parlays/moneyline parlays in NFL Week 7 odds. So the public cashes big.

After a Week 6 in which the public drilled the books.


“It’s the worst two-week run I’ve seen. That’s all there really is to say.”


— @ZachALucas, director of retail sports, TwinSpires Sportsbook

Props on all the info, Toma. Only good news for me is that it could have been MUCH worse.

If I had played a slightly different portfolio, I might have been wearing a trash-can for pants.

[johnnyvegas13]

Ravens win and cover, the final leg of a lot of parlays/moneyline parlays in NFL Week 7 odds. So the public cashes big.

After a Week 6 in which the public drilled the books.


“It’s the worst two-week run I’ve seen. That’s all there really is to say.”


— @ZachALucas, director of retail sports, TwinSpires Sportsbook

Next week will b a public burial

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Week) -1.49/15
...Had some good picks. Have seen worse.
...One game sticks out, Carol/Wash. See str's post (#28 above). Most direct avenue for Carolina hanging was a Daniels injury. We get the Daniels injury, and Carol still gets rolled. How bad is Carolina?

Will update from the other threads. But I'm taking some time off.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(mlb) -2.00
(coll) -2.85

End BAL = 139.84 (ytd = +39.84)

Some frustrating losses this week. Cutting it off, taking some time off. Glad I didn't blow off more from the peak. Don't feel like I'm playing to a +EV right now. These lines are tough, and the #s move.

Still have seven units pending. One on Politics, six on NFL.

[Madison]

(Week) -1.49/15
...Had some good picks. Have seen worse.
...One game sticks out, Carol/Wash. See str's post (#28 above). Most direct avenue for Carolina hanging was a Daniels injury. We get the Daniels injury, and Carol still gets rolled. How bad is Carolina?

Will update from the other threads. But I'm taking some time off.

And these fawkers (CAR) will end up costing me maybe 35K in Survivors pools. My fault taking LV but hurts to watch them. Last year it was NE @ PIT.