A Quant vs. USMA 1992

[A Quant]

I appreciate your opinion... but it isn't pointless. I am trying to demonstrate that you can diversify your bets like a mutual fund and still be successful against Vegas. You can take away a big risk and still win.

This contest... probably is pointless.

Dave
Mack the Teach

And I know, you will never be profitable in football.

Ever.

No way in hell you can bet 11 NFL sides/totals on a Sunday and win.

[A Quant]

I appreciate your opinion... but it isn't pointless. I am trying to demonstrate that you can diversify your bets like a mutual fund and still be successful against Vegas. You can take away a big risk and still win.

This contest... probably is pointless.

Dave
Mack the Teach

As of right now, neither approach is winning.

Mine or yours.

You are just losing less money than I am right now.

[A Quant]

Dave a reminder on what we agreed on.

Betting into -110 lines.

It is not even money, because, well, we all pay Vig.

So when calculating our totals-- account for -110 lines.

[usma1992]

I will admit... NFL is tough for me because of sample size. I spent the last two days on both programs. College football is working and if I have college basketball also working... I am not sure if I even need to bet NFL.

But... pride will keep me tryings. I tighten up NFL and back tested it as much as I can. It eliminated a lot of losing bets so I am going to give it another run.

Yes we are both losing. I am at 52% and you are at 38%.

Of course we pay the Vig... 52.38%. That right now is your only saving grace of saying we are both negative. FYI... I didn't even see you pro picks... I will take you at your word.


If I have two programs that work... I just continually work on the one that doesn't. I spent the last several hours on college football because I knew it could be better even though it is up 7 units in two weeks.

I'll stay my course. It is early and I am breakeven... as my stats come into play and mature... I should get stronger.


Dave
Mack the Teach

[A Quant]

I will admit... NFL is tough for me because of sample size. I spent the last two days on both programs. College football is working and if I have college basketball also working... I am not sure if I even need to bet NFL.

But... pride will keep me tryings. I tighten up NFL and back tested it as much as I can. It eliminated a lot of losing bets so I am going to give it another run.

Yes we are both losing. I am at 52% and you are at 38%.

Of course we pay the Vig... 52.38%. That right now is your only saving grace of saying we are both negative. FYI... I didn't even see you pro picks... I will take you at your word.


If I have two programs that work... I just continually work on the won that doesn't. I spent the last several hours on college football because I knew it could be better even though it is up 7 units in two weeks.

I'll stay my course.
Dave
Mack the Teach

Dave, I literally posted them in your thread.

And-- I am not getting soft, I sincerely hope your personal stuff is getting better. I bust chops here, but I never want anyone in a tough spot. Ever.

This is just a fun way to enjoy gambling, real life and this shit that comes with it is much more important.

[usma1992]

Excited for this weekend... I really tighten things up in NFL... no idea whether it will work. I tighten then loosen then tighten then loosen. It is definitely a process.

I am convinced my college bball system works and I believe that my college football system is close if not there. It has shown real promise this season. It is up 7 units and with the upgrades I have already added much more than that. Yes, they are after the fact.

Here is what some people may miss when I try to analyze a game that I lost. I look for matchup issues, certain attributes like runs allowed... I develop or upgrade my algorithm. However, I can't use the upgrade if it doesn't work in the past. I enhance my formula than try it over previous years and see if the same formula works. If it does, I incorporate it and if it doesn't I toss it out and start again.

This is why I am going to win. If not this season, next, if not that season... the season after next. I'm fair on my analysis and my data. I have already identified trends in college basketball and so far college football has worked. If college football works this season, it is using past algorithms and formulas that worked.

I'm excited. We are in the early few weeks and I'm essentially breakeven only because I got crushed on NFL. If I tighten that system and lighten up the betting percentages... I'm in solid shape.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Props to you guys on posting your picks:

1) If Quant's picks are in here, where are usma's picks listed?

2) I'll be FLOORED if usma can clear a profit picking that many games per week.

...Handicapping is one of the most challenging ventures around. It looks easy going in, one can easily talk about it. Then the results come in, on Monday morning it looks so obvious.

[usma1992]

My picks are on my one individual thread... I thought it would be easier to follow since... I am going to post 150 days straight. I didn't want the contest to get in the way.

Chucky the Goat... you said that I would be amazed if Northern Illinois beat ND. And they did... a lot more good stuff to follow.

Wish my system would have picked both college games last night. My numbers were great but my filters kicked out the games. I can't have it both ways but I am working hard to get around my filters on those two games and still win.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[A Quant]

Dave-- my picks--

Navy -10 over AF
BC +1.5 over Virginia
Army -13 over Tulsa
Indiana -13.5 over Northwestern
Oklahoma State -3 over WVU
Coastal Carolina -4.5 over Old Dominion
Michigan +1.5 over Washington

[usma1992]

I got you at 4-3... I went 7-2.

My Stats
College 29-17 ... Up 12 Units
NFL 3-8 ... Down 5 Units

56% only because a disasterous NFL week. Maybe, I will have to shelve that until next year. We shall see.
Dave

[usma1992]

Had a monster weekend 7-2 College ... 5-1 NFL... 12-3 80%

I am cautiously optimistic. I didn't see you NFL picks so I don't know how you did...

Tally us up. I am just glad it is working or seems to be working.

Dave
Mack the Teach

[usma1992]

A Quant just be fair on the tally... I can't find ur NFL bets... 12-4... Lost last night...

Still great weekend. 75%

Look forward to your tally.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[asiagambler]

Any bet on FIU at Liberty tonight ?

Please advise

[usma1992]

Check my 150 day thread...

But no.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[usma1992]

AQuant,

Not sure we are still doing this or not.

I got you at 9-11 (45%) down 2 units not including your recent NFL picks from last weekend because I can't find them. I haven't looked hard.

I am at 32-25 (56%) up 7 units not counting my recent NFL picks from last weekend.

Including my NFL from Week 6, I am at 37-27 Up 10 Units (58%).

If you don't want to continue, it is fine with me.

But if you still want to continue I have already posted my picks for both NFL and NCAAF for this week.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[teecee]

There are two things in this forum that "everyone" hates; Touts and using steroids in baseball. In the end, it's all just entertainment. Who cares?

[usma1992]

Several people follow my picks... so I guess they do...
No worries I'm going to pick 150 days... until Mar 1st. They are on the 150 day thread.


Dave

[A Quant]

My picks---

Georgia Tech -3.5 over North Carolina
Rutgers -2.5 over Wisconsin
California +3.5 over Pittsburgh
USC +4.5 over Penn State
BYU -3 over Arizona
West Virginia +3 over Iowa State
Kansas State -3.5 over Colorado
LSU +3.5 over Mississippi

[usma1992]

Went 8-4... 5-4 college 3-0 NFL

Sitting at 45-31 Up 14 Units and 59%.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[usma1992]

A Quant... hope you are well...

I am by no means declaring victory at this stage of our competition. My whole point is to make my models better which they obviously are compared to last year.

The algorithms predicting this years games came from the development that you ridiculed me doing last year. These same formulas that I am using now... I used on past data with success after the fact. I know it is after the fact in the past... but it is predicting pretty solid results this year using the same algorithms. This is a process for me. But I did feel that this was or could be my breakout year. My college basketball seems to work... my college football program hasn't had a losing weekend yet. NFL has only had one abysmal weekend but is still positive.

We will see in the end.

But even you at this point has to step back and say... huh... is he on to something. Several posters believe in my data and I hope to get better. My NFL system.. I sense is still weak. My college football... I am not changing.

I have re-read your previous posts of how you are going to destroy me to teach me a lesson. I appreciate you pushing me to do my best.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[A Quant]

My picks Dave---

Alabama -3
Iowa -6.5
Colorado State -6.5
Utah -3.5
Arizona State +5.5
Connecticut +2.5
Texas -3.5
Kansas State -2.5
Florida +1.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My picks Dave---

Alabama -3
Iowa -6.5
Colorado State -6.5
Utah -3.5
Arizona State +5.5
Connecticut +2.5
Texas -3.5
Kansas State -2.5
Florida +1.5

Good Luck, Quant.

[usma1992]

Contest Update:

JakePeavy... I only bet 4 bets this weekend... on college... he bet 9.


A Quant you went 3-6 on the weekend.

A Quant 17-20 46% Down 3 Units
Usma1992 47-33 59% Up 14 Units

Dave
MacktheTeach

[usma1992]

Won on NFL bet... took Commanders...

48-33... I think... Enjoy.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Contest Update:

JakePeavy... I only bet 4 bets this weekend... on college... he bet 9.

A Quant 17-20 46% Down 3 Units
Usma1992 47-33 59% Up 14 Units

Dave
MacktheTeach

Looks like a long road for A Quant to get back in the hunt here if those are in fact the numbers.

[usma1992]

A Quant... if you are ok with it... let's call the competition a draw...

My only goal is to improve my systems and create a viable sports betting system. A Quant... if you have any feedback on future picks ... I appreciate it but as always... tell me why you don't like the pick. I can't model it if you don't give me your rational before.

Honestly, that applies to anyone that doesn't agree with my picks. Just tell me what pick you don't like and why. It will help me develop my algorithms further and hopefully find a tighter solution. I can use a theory you have then back test it against previous data.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[A Quant]

Went 3-6 last week---

Which is pretty much .500 over the last 3 weeks--- need a big week

Indiana -5.5
Connecticut -7
UCF -2.5
Missouri +17
Wake -3
Wisconsin +6.5
Texas AM -1
Kansas +10
Cincinnati +6.5
Maryland +5.5
Toledo -2.5
Notre Dame -12.5

[usma1992]

I gave you an OUT... going 4-6 hardly qualifies as a good weekend... I was 4-3

You need to drastically up your game. I have you down 5 Units... and I am up 16 Units.

A swing of 21 Units in just 5 weeks...

I am trying so hard to take the high road.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[ChuckyTheGoat]

You need to drastically up your game. I have you down 5 Units... and I am up 16 Units.

A swing of 21 Units in just 5 weeks...

I am trying so hard to take the high road.

Dave
MacktheTeach

Cmon, man. This is a game of Good Fortune. Bad karma to take shots like that.

[usma1992]

Chucky ...

are you kidding me? This guy not only crucified my program last year as I was dotting the eyes and crossing the tees. He then challenged me to a contest which I am destroying him in and I offered him a draw.

Read this entire thread... and watch him ridicule my approach etc...

All I know is that I am trying the best I can... I know you are on A Quants side but why. It is all good. He deserves to get ribbed much more than I am giving him. He is lucky I am a good guy.

Dave
MacktheTeach

[usma1992]

7-5 over the Weekend

Dave
MacktheTeach

[mjsuax13]

are you kidding me? This guy not only crucified my program last year as I was dotting the eyes and crossing the tees. He then challenged me to a contest which I am destroying him in and I offered him a draw.

Read this entire thread... and watch him ridicule my approach etc...

All I know is that I am trying the best I can... I know you are on A Quants side but why. It is all good. He deserves to get ribbed much more than I am giving him. He is lucky I am a good guy.

Dave
MacktheTeach

Good work Mack! Keep it rolling.

[usma1992]

Ty... I appreciate you.

[A Quant]

I am still firing----

Illinois +3
Old Dominion -3
Indiana -7.5
Florida +15.5
Texas A&M -3
SMU -6
Vandy +7.5
Duke +20.5
Ohio State -3
Colorado State -1.5

[usma1992]

I love it... I like a personality that doesn't give up.

Dave
MackTheTeach