(2024 Olympics) Men's BASK - Notes/Plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A bit more support for Jock Landale than last two games and it could be close. Aussie men have a good record v Serbia. 3-2 since Rio to Australia.

Women should roll though I think.

Opti, so far so good. Aussies up 44-20.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Opti, so far so good. Aussies up 44-20.

Mills is going crazy. 18 pts, he's shutting me up.

[Igor_1965]

Mills is going crazy. 18 pts, he's shutting me up.

Only way Serbia has a chance is double team this Australian version of S. Curry circa 2017

Force his teammates to make jump shots

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Opti, so far so good. Aussies up 44-20.

SERBs with a big comeback. 65-64, going to be a wire-job.

[IBetYou]

Serbs by 7 or 8 I reckon.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

SERBs with a big comeback. 65-64, going to be a wire-job.

Overtime!

[Optional]

Opti, so far so good. Aussies up 44-20.

Bet365 paid out my bet early for being 18 ahead but nail biting here for the win hard.

[Optional]

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Overtime!

Tough one, Opti. Listen to this Steven Adams clip. I know he's from New Zealand:

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

I like the France pick. I'm rolling with the under in the USA game.

[MalikHusam]

Oh wow... France is looking fine

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

Great game. What a shot by France at the end. The crowed was great.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Oh wow... France is looking fine

What's up, Malik? How are things?

France wins:
1) I thought France couldn't play any worse.
2) Figured they'd get a jolt from the Home crowd.
3) Felt like Canada was being over-hyped.

[MalikHusam]

They get major points from players I never even heard of. Great stuff

Good bet C

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like the France pick. I'm rolling with the under in the USA game.

I scouted out this game. I expected the USA to (not surprisingly) have an easy game. Thought about laying the -27 but Passed.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*PR covers comfortably.
*Serbia play was a disaster. Other plays have been OK.
ytd = 10-11 ATS.

France wins. ytd = 13-11 ATS.

USA blitzing. Looks like the Sem-finals will be Germ/FRA and Serb/USA.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two 1* plays for the Semi-finals. Playing both dogs:

Serbia +16 1.92: 1 to win .92
France +5.5 1.91: 1 to win .91. Gobert should play more MIN (than last game).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two 1* plays for the Semi-finals. Playing both dogs:

Serbia +16 1.92: 1 to win .92
France +5.5 1.91: 1 to win .91. Gobert should play more MIN (than last game).

2nd unit on each:
*Serb +16 1.95: 1 to win .95
*FRA +6 1.91: 1 to win .91

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

2nd unit on each:
*Serb +16 1.95: 1 to win .95
*FRA +6 1.91: 1 to win .91

I like both picks. Just a little worried about France. They have home court and that's a bigger deal than the NBA.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like both picks. Just a little worried about France. They have home court and that's a bigger deal than the NBA.

Hey, Buffalo. Thx for the post.

I'm pretty honest about this. These are my best attempts at +EV:

1) FRA: Yes, the HCA should be a big deal. It's a Semi-Final, support should be good.
...Team is in some transition. Word is that Gobert got benched last game (instead of a finger injury). I expect him to play more today. Got contributions from others last game. I'm looking for a good effort, and I like the line-value.

2) SERB: I've been high on them. I just don't think Serbia has played their best in the two games vs USA. Last meet was the game where Durant was perfect in the 1st half. On most days I think SERB hangs with the USA. And how can you not like the big Dog when you have a world-class player like Jokic?

[Optional]

Strong start by the Krauts

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Strong start by the Krauts

Ya. French closing the gap. 33-33 now.

The two guys losing minutes are Fournier/Gobert. The coach is not messing around. This could be a good thing.

I've said this a million times. These are just my bets. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

I like James Pts & R 22.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Big comeback. USA survives.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

France wins. ytd = 13-11 ATS.

USA blitzing. Looks like the Sem-finals will be Germ/FRA and Serb/USA.

Two dogs cover. ytd = 17-11 ATS.

[super mario 48]

Hey, Buffalo. Thx for the post.

I'm pretty honest about this. These are my best attempts at +EV:

1) FRA: Yes, the HCA should be a big deal. It's a Semi-Final, support should be good.
...Team is in some transition. Word is that Gobert got benched last game (instead of a finger injury). I expect him to play more today. Got contributions from others last game. I'm looking for a good effort, and I like the line-value.

2) SERB: I've been high on them. I just don't think Serbia has played their best in the two games vs USA. Last meet was the game where Durant was perfect in the 1st half. On most days I think SERB hangs with the USA. And how can you not like the big Dog when you have a world-class player like Jokic?

Good analysis. Serbia punched them hard.

Did you keep track of live betting lines? Was the U.S. ever a ML underdog, like late in the third?

[Optional]

Good analysis. Serbia punched them hard.

Did you keep track of live betting lines? Was the U.S. ever a ML underdog, like late in the third?

Yes, for a while actually. +115 was biggest I saw.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good analysis. Serbia punched them hard.

Did you keep track of live betting lines? Was the U.S. ever a ML underdog, like late in the third?

Thx, Mario! Serbia was in good shape. Props to USA, they hit the clutch shots in the 4th qtr.

I really don't track Live-betting. Primary reason = the 30-cent standard juice, way too high. I have to think the US was a Dog at some point late in 3q (or early 4q).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My thoughts on the Bronze/Gold medal games. Very likely passes from a betting perspective:

*Bronze: Situationally, I give the Edge to GERM. Serbia comes off a heavy-wt bout versus Team USA. Serbs played great, had one foot into the Finals. Team USA hit clutch shots down the stretch, pulled it out. That said, I'd have a hard time going against Serbia (w/ Jokic) at a short price. Pass for me.

*Gold: Team USA faced their stiffest test versus Serbia. So close to having the Gold go up in smoke. France off two great Underdog wins. My big hesitation is that Gobert is now (virtually) out of the rotation. Finger injury or in the Coach's dog-house, I would not feel good about backing FRA when their big-name player is likely to get only a few minutes. Pass for me.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, FRA came to win, they played their hearts out. Curry too good down the stretch, Amazing!

[Optional]

Wow, FRA came to win, they played their hearts out. Curry too good down the stretch, Amazing!

I think he went on a one man 14 point run that suddenly crushed the French hopes in about 90 secs of play time

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think he went on a one man 14 point run that suddenly crushed the French hopes in about 90 secs of play time

Ya, Opti. France was right there.

I've been critical of this Team USA. But that was an amazing finish. What a capper by Curry.