(Plays 6/16 - 6/22)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3rd unit on FRA: (gm) pk 1.68: 1 to win .68.
...Even without Mbappe, this roster oozes with talent.
...I expect Kolo to start. Giroud may be the 2h sub.
...With the star-man out, chances for other guys to shine. They'll surely want a bite of the apple.

4th unit on FRA (gm) -0.25 2.16: 1 to win 1.16.
...I now think this line is insane.
...I really think it's just a reaction to the Mbappe injury.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 2-1 (1.0 Push)
...Serbia draws on the final kick. Push.
...WNBA total stays under.
...Brewers lose in Xtra Innings.
Week: 12.5-8.

Day: 4-3.5. UKR wins, POL loses, FRA draws.
Week: 16.5-11.5.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 4-3.5. UKR wins, POL loses, FRA draws.
Week: 16.5-11.5.

+$ for the week so far. 5 units have landed on the # to Push.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NHL) 2* Florida (gm7) 1.85 (vs EDM): 2 to win 1.70.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 1* CZE Rep -0.5 1.81 (vs Geo): 1 to win .81.
...Too much love for GEO, who admittedly looked sharp vs Turkey.
...I view GEO as being a pretty big outsider. They don't have much Defense.
...Both teams lost their opener, so I expect this game to be open. I see Goals coming, and I'll back the team with more pedigree.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 1* Portugal -.75 1.80 (vs Turk): 1 to win .80.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Coll Base) 1* TexAM (gm1) 2.24 (vs Tenn): 1 to win 1.24.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Coll Base) 1* TexAM (gm1) 2.24 (vs Tenn): 1 to win 1.24.

Adding: 3* TexAM (gm1) 2.30: 3 to win 3.90.
...Found a better #.
...A little inside info on this game. Prager was announced as the Aggie starter.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Coll Base) TexAM/Tenn (gm1) UND 11.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

[matt711]

(Coll Base) TexAM/Tenn (gm1) UND 11.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

Good luck today!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good luck today!

Thx, Matt. Been watching these teams closely.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding: 3* TexAM (gm1) 2.30: 3 to win 3.90.
...Found a better #.
...A little inside info on this game. Prager was announced as the Aggie starter.

Adding a 5th unit: TxAM 2.39: 1 to win 1.39.
...I think this # is insane.
...TENN will likely be playing this game with a Bullpen by Committee. I'm expecting Beam to pitch Game 2 and Sechrist to pitch Game 3.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 1* Portugal -.75 1.80 (vs Turk): 1 to win .80.

2nd unit on PORT -.75 1.88: 1 to win .88.
...I'm now convinced that Portugal is going to control this game. Great creative players. By the end of the third game, Port figures to stand out as the top team in this Group.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Coll Base) TexAM (Series) 2.80 (vs Tenn): 1 to win 1.80.
...I rate the Aggies as > 40% to win this series. So, +180 is great value. Gap is not that big.
...I think they have a great chance to win Game One.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NHL) 2* Florida (gm7) 1.85 (vs EDM): 2 to win 1.70.

3rd unit on FLA 1.91: 1 to win .91. Three angles on this game:
1) Long Travel. I thought the Home Ice would matter in this series. Home team has won 4 of 6 so far.
2) Recency Bias bleeding into the line. Looked like Fla would win comfortably. Off 3 Losses, the # has collapsed.
3) FLA GK Bobrovsky is a little better than the EDM GK. I expect him to be sharp in this game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 4-3.5. UKR wins, POL loses, FRA draws.
Week: 16.5-11.5.

Day: 9.5-2 (0.5 Push). Great day of results.
...CZE wastes their chances + draws. PORT win.
...MEX wins by one.
...TexAM wins the 5*. Prager was good (but not great). Total goes Over.
Week: 26-13.5

Will wrap up the weekly record on Sunday nite.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 1* Scotland -0.5 2.68 (vs Hung): 1 to win 1.68.
...This looks like an un-watchable game. I have a few angles on it.
...3rd-place teams have a chance to qualify. So, both teams will be going for it. Draw does nobody any good.
...Scots looked much better last out vs SWITZ. And they're pretty healthy.
...Scotland do have some big-name players. They will want to show themselves. And a WIN gives them a real chance to Qualify.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) Ukraine +0.75 2.04 (vs Belg): 1 to win 1.04.

Group E is all knotted up going into the final Group games. Four teams tied on top.
...I can't help but think that we'd be over-paying for Belgium. Too much name recognition.
...UKR were at least a little unlucky in the opener vs ROM. They should have the quality to hang tough here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2* Spain -1.25 2.04: 2 to win 2.08.

...Spain looks so good. They probably don't need the win. In form, I like them regardless.
...The current version of Spain looks reminiscent of the best Spain teams. I don't think Albania will have any answers for their ball-control.
...Albania looks gulfs below. And they're off a game where they pipped a point from Croatia.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Coll Base) 1* TexAM (gm2) 3.10 (vs Tenn): 1 to win 2.10.

...I've documented all the Aggie injuries + pitching issues. Duly noted.
...This # is too fat. Worth a flyer at 2/1 odds.
...Not everyone knows about Badmaev. He has an excellent K/BB ratio. Worth a shot with Cortez waiting in relief.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Nascar) Two H2H Matchups:

0.5* Larson 2.20 (vs Blaney): 0.5 to win 0.60

0.5* Larson 2.58 (vs Bell): 0.5 to win 0.79

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Day: 9.5-2 (0.5 Push). Great day of results.
...CZE wastes their chances + draws. PORT win.
...MEX wins by one.
...TexAM wins the 5*. Prager was good (but not great). Total goes Over.
Week: 26-13.5

Will wrap up the weekly record on Sunday nite.

Day: 0-3. Scot loses. Aggies led but lose. Bricked on Nascar.

Week: 26-16.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Beginning Balance = 146.23 (+46.23 ytd)

*One play Pending on Mavs (gm5).

Week: +8.44

Beginning Balance = 154.67 (+54.67 ytd)

*A few plays still Pending.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) 2* Spain -1.25 2.04: 2 to win 2.08.

...Spain looks so good. They probably don't need the win. In form, I like them regardless.
...The current version of Spain looks reminiscent of the best Spain teams. I don't think Albania will have any answers for their ball-control.
...Albania looks gulfs below. And they're off a game where they pipped a point from Croatia.

3rd unit on SPAIN -0.5 1.50: 1 to win .50.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Euro) Serbia pk 2.41: 1 to win 1.41.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(Coll Base) 2* TxAM (gm3) +1.5 2.20: 2 to win 2.40.

...I've written a lot about this series. Have expressed my opinion that I don't think the gap is that big.
...We're catching a .790 Win% team at a fat dog price. Last game was their first loss in L10.
...Rotation flips, so Aggies should be batting 2nd. Anyone that plays MLB runlines knows that this is key. Home -1.5 is very tricky. Road +1.5 gets nine at-bats, Home gets 8. If it gets to the bottom of 9, Home -1.5 needs to rely on the dubious multi-run Homer.

This game all comes down to the pitching matchup. TENN will be starting LH Sechrist, who is very solid. Aggies will be shooting all their bullets, as there is no tomorrow.

If I'm the TxAM manager, here's how I deploy my pitchers:

1) LAMKIN. He's solid (if not spectacular). He comes off two very sharp outings, so his confidence should be high.
...I expect TENN to use a lineup similar to Game One when they faced another LHP.
...Ideally, Lamkin will face the first 15 batters. He should be able to handcuff some of the LH bats. Looking for 3 or 4 Innings from Lamkin.

2) BADMAEV. I thought the skipper pulled him too quickly in Game Two. He showed that he has some firepower.
...I'd bring him back to face the lower part of the Vol lineup. His power should cause problems to RH batters.
...Capable of producing one clean inning.

3) ASCHENBECK. Here's where I think they'll deviate from standard procedure. This guy is an All-American. His stats have been as good as any reliever in the country. 1.49 ERA, .84 WHIP, 7.00 K/BB ratio.
...He's normally the closer. In this game, there's no point in holding him back. Why let the game get out of reach?
...I feel confident that he'll pitch three innings after a rest-day on SUN. I expect him to face Burke on his third At Bat. Will ride him until he burns out.

4) STEWART. Another reliever that he'll rely on. Very solid K/BB ratio.
...If/when Asch gasses out, I believe the skip will turn to Stewart (who also had a rest-day on SUN).
...Solid (if not spectacular) pitcher. And if they're still alive, it's all hands on deck after this.